Briefly about the developments in Northern Hama to April 24, 2017.
The development of operations in Northern Hama on April 22-23.
Over the past two days, the SAA actually cut a third of the Lataminah ledge, while the offensive does not think to stop.
Over the past day militants knocked out of the villages to the East and South of Lataminah, which has been subjected to a week of non-stop air strikes. About 2-2.5 miles are left to Lataminah.
The enemy suffers heavy losses (however, the SAA also has significant losses), which is reflected in the increasing hysteria on the topic “Assad bombed a hospital” (exactly the same as screaming during the assault on Aleppo), and appeals to groups of Idlib urgently send reinforcements to Hama, or “the regime will prevail.” Simultaneously, the continued attacks of the SAA to the West of Aleppo, which is pulled over part of the very few reserves of fighters.
“Al-Nusra” and “Ahrar al-sham” have actually burned their operating reserves in the April fighting and can only rely on fresh recruits from camps in Idlib, as well as a separate jihadist group from other groups. The main problem of fighters is that after the SAA broke through the main defensive line Halfaya-Tablet-al-Imam-Souran, the second line of defense near Lataminah and Morek, in fact is the key to the southern part of Idlib. In the continuation of the offensive of the SAA at the current pace, the consequences of the collapse of the defense of fighters in North Hama can capture and the neighboring parts of the front, particularly in the area Kerdasa and Maan that the favorable SAA for the development of the situation can lead to total collapse of the southern front rebels.
The shortage of manpower and equipment forced the militants to retreat in order to preserve the remaining strength to create a defensive line near Lataminah. So they avoid encirclement, however, the need to maintain a static defense against an enemy with overwhelming superiority in firing weapons, leads to great losses in manpower, which plays a role of demoralizing and leads to the growing panic associated with the state of the front in Northern Hama. Only now, the fighters, comes the understanding, than turned to them initially successful March offensive, when they managed to break through the front of the SAA. Now things are moving in the opposite direction, and possibilities for relief of consequences from the militants is much less than that of Assad, who is already accustomed to such failures and to overcome them. “Al-Nusra” in the current environment, can only rely on limited help people and urgent delivery of weapons, which of course are unlikely to neutralize the superiority of the SAA fully.
In this regard, it will be very interesting to see where fighters will be able to gain a foothold and to build a front line that will have long-term operational implications for the whole of the campaign in 2017.