The crisis in Northern Hama | Colonel Cassad

The evening of March 22 the case of the SAA in Northern Hama worsened. The militants took Suran and has moved to the South, about the same place where they successfully attacked in September 2016, when their advance was halted by the reserves of the SAA, as well as internal strife. At this point, the attack is carried out by radical groups under the leadership of “al-Nusra”, which took part of his forces from the region of Idlib, to conduct offensive operations separately from the opponents of the “Ahrar al-sham” and the Syrian Free Army.

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The military situation in Syria.14.02.2017 | Colonel Cassad

The rapid advance of Kurdish light infantry and the support of the American aircraft easily broke through the veil of “black” to the North-East of Raqqa, and attempts to counter them by throwing in the reserves do not give the desired results. The Kurds suffered losses, but kept the occupied territories, which creates prerequisites for further “crimping” of Raqqa to the East.

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Splits | Colonel Cassad

We must understand that in the near future the life in the province of Idlib will be very “exciting”. For example, Idlib will be in the local version to see what would happen with the whole Syria in case if Assad was overthrown and these characters came to power. Considering the sides of the war within Idlib, you can only wish every success to self-destruction.

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The civil war in Idlib | Colonel Cassad

More than 10,000 fighters from various factions in Idlib, and West of Aleppo joined the “Ahrar al-sham”, which thus becomes the 2nd largest jihadist group in Syria after the “Al-Nusra” and a kind of informal leader of the “green” militants in Idlib (although the talks will continue to be dominated by the representatives of the Syrian Free Army). Uniting around “Ahrar al-sham” caused by ongoing fighting between the militants in Idlib, and West of Aleppo. In fact, the “Ahrar al-sham” intended to be the center of gravity of the forces that are at war with “Al-Nusra”. There are now flocking primarily those jihadists who believe “al-Nusra” too radical or unpromising (in the light of the international situation), but are not willing to negotiate with Assad.

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The military situation in Syria. 09.01.2017 | Colonel Cassad

In General, the parties expected the talks in Astana on January 23 and subsequent negotiations between Russia and USA that somehow will clarify many important points for understanding the future course of the winter-spring campaign of 2017. Prerequisites to a complete end of hostilities of course not – it is about changing foreign policy situation around Syria and the definition of the list of hot fronts, where fighting will continue and which will be created by military means the conditions for the subsequent peace talks.This negotiation step is necessary to consolidate a new military-political reality established after the defeat of the “green” in the battle for Aleppo.

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