In the end, to seriously change the existing trends at this stage would require the collapse of the APU or unlikely socio-economic explosion in the Ukraine. Otherwise, the US and Russia will adhere to the wait-and-see strategy.
In General, the events still continue to evolve through the old script with a local relapse on the positional front, but nevertheless, a certain probability of intensification events remains, as at this stage there are no clear diplomatic constraints for what is happening.
In General, unilateral “truce” and statements about “separatist groups”, quite clearly shows that the Kremlin is not interested in the violation of existing in the Donbas the status quo pending negotiations with the United States. The junta, in turn, is interested in intensifying the fighting to those negotiations, to sit down favorite skate “Russian aggression” and “humanitarian catastrophe”, which they themselves cause. So from Kiev shouting that the international institutions put pressure on Russia and LDNR that they stopped to fire at Avdeevka, and from Moscow and Donetsk claim that it is Germany, France and the OSCE should put pressure on the junta to stop shelling Donetsk and other cities DND.
By 21 December, the situation on the Debaltsevsky direction is stabilized. The enemy was not able to make significant progress in the direction of Logvinovo and Kalinovka, moving away from most of the occupied territory after the losses incurred. At the moment, the fights are positional, that is typical for episodic escalations, which, after several days of activity gradually fade and return the situation to standard for the war in the Donbass 2015-2016.
“Yesterday the enemy attempted a breakthrough. Thanks to the resilience of our guys, they were rejected on pre-equipped for their positions. Also they do not adhere to the Minsk agreements and we are exposed to mortar and artillery fire, with small arms working almost constantly. Now the situation: keep your positions. The shelling continues. Guys hold position. Work with the APU mortars and artillery, but the situation is stable, we, of course, they do not miss. Also we hear from small arms work — there is a battle”.
In Aleppo, the SAA and “Liwa al-Quds” began moving towards the building and Hanano neighborhoods Haidari and Ayun-tal. In the next 1-3 days should destroy all assumptions, and to create conditions for entry in high-density housing. Haidari looks a tough nut to crack, so I would assume that they would use the existing leads in the industrial building next to the quarter Ayun-tal and the ruins North-East of Hanau. Blows to these areas can be supported by the occurrence in the quarter, Bastan Basha, allowing to hit the rear of the fighters holding the front in Ayun Thale.Among other things, the cleanup of this quarter are Kurds from Sheikh Maksoud, as it is here in the Kurdish quarter, the militants had launched a “Hellfire” and were firing from mortars.