War as the core of the paradigm of American foreign policy
American politics and economics depend on warfare. War is necessary for the United States in terms of ideology, politics and economics. That is why the US military-industrial complex is one of the most influential forces in the state.
Sometimes this particular military-industrial complex is called a “deep state”, a deep state. In order for this “deep state” / MIC received new defense orders, estimated trillions of dollars, it is necessary to wage war. Otherwise, these costs will not be justified. With this, no one can not be ignored: neither the so-called peacemaker Obama, nor the hard realist Trump. The US military-industrial complex dictates its demands to any president with any worldviews and therefore war is necessary (inevitable). But what does Trump do?
Trump seeks to change the paradigm of foreign policy, but can not do so drastically, being under pressure from a deep state (MIC). Any drastic change in the course and methodology of foreign policy will lead to its displacement, its elimination, so Trump’s bubble of his military spending is trying to turn in another direction. Trump’s main task as a policy that promised to avoid a nuclear conflict with Russia and dodge the emerging danger of the Third World Nuclear War is the normalization of relations with Russia. At the same time, the US military pressure on Trump is not weakening and he is forced to wage war. But not with Russia. From this, one must proceed when analyzing the escalation of the conflict around North Korea.
The clash with Russia is most likely in Syria, so Trump takes attention away from Syria to the Far East. It is worth noting that Russia is clearly not interested in the US war against the DPRK, especially since China is interfering in the matter. But all the same it is not so painful, it is a more indirect confrontation with the United States. Other candidates for US aggression in the Tramp paradigm are Iran. Iran is Russia’s closer ally with the general political interests in the region. For us, the US war with Iran will be much more painful.
And if we consider that Trump can not fight (and Russia is the most likely enemy with the threat of deploying a nuclear war), then the conflict between the United States and the DPRK is the lesser of evils that is possible in this situation and that only affects Russia tangentially. It’s not profitable for us, but it’s better than the US-Russia war.
The war with the DPRK is a political suicide of Trump?
Trump from a rational point of view, the war with the DPRK should not begin, this will not improve his position in any way. US military bases are in South Korea, the region is controlled by the United States in one way or another. For the war with the DPRK, there are no special strategic or image interests. The war will lead to huge civilian casualties, that is to hundreds, to thousands of people and will turn into a complete political catastrophe from all points of view. Trump can not not understand this. The beginning of the war with the DPRK is Trump’s suicide and creating a situation that does not have a win. But nevertheless, it is better than the nuclear world war, to which Trump is constantly pushed by the heated military-industrial machine of the United States, and indeed any president of the United States (and what Hilary Clinton apparently went to). We have seen that Trump has replaced the adviser on Russia, the confrontation in this direction will be slightly weakened.
Trump has replaced the adviser on the Middle East: confrontation in this direction will also be weakened. In such a situation, the “scapegoat” was chosen by the completely innocent, wonderful Kim Jong Un, who simply defends and tries to defend the sovereignty of his small but great country on the international arena. From a moral point of view, it is beautiful, but from the point of view of big politics, if this war begins, then China will be drawn into it, and this can become the end of the US. If Trump will decide on this war … If he again does not dare, he will act rationally, then the confrontation with the internal MIC will also be fatal. The situation will be tense, but first of all for Trump, who tries to maneuver between Scylla and Charybdis, between rationality, which tells him not to wage wars, and the course of the military-industrial complex, a deep state. Rationality would be remarkable and most beneficial for the US and for Trump personally, but this will provoke an irreconcilable conflict with the aggressive American military industry, which will not allow such a peaceful solution and transition to realism.
From a rational point of view, this war with the DPRK should not be, because it will lead to countless and unjustified casualties, a sharp drop in the US political status in the world. This will not be justified violence, not justified. There can be no winnings here. And yet it’s better than a nuclear conflict with Russia over Ukraine or Syria, to which the alternative administration could lead. Of course, it’s bad, Trump choose …