In General, the situation of the enclave have long been hopeless from a strategic point of view, it is absolutely hopeless for the insurgents, and this is reflected in a consistent surrender in the East valley. After the rebels lost all the adjacent valley key height, their defeat became inevitable. After the rejection already signed the armistice in the first half of January, the rebels lost about a third of the enclave. In January, SAA and its allies (mainly the Lebanese from “Hezbollah”) lost in the battles for the valley and about 70 people were killed, the losses of the insurgents amounted to 180 people.The end of liberation of Wadi Barada will free up for other parts of the front of about 3-4 thousand people and a few dozen units.
As the Syrians understand the complexity of the situation in Deir ez-Zor, continuing the offensive East of Tiyas, but the pace of advance there are quite modest, to be able to talk about the crisis that forced the Caliphate to bring additional troops. In this respect, the attack in the direction of Deir hafir or the training throw on Tabqa, may force the Caliphate to reconsider their priorities, although without proper preparation, such offensive operations can be quite risky due to the lack of troops to ensure the flanks of the strike force and control over the supply lines. Apparently real plans to liberate Deir-ez-Zor were attributed to spring and have been linked to the onset of Palmyra. The defeat of the Caliphate in December 2016, the first year dealt a serious blow to those plans.
If we talk in General about SAA, Assad retains the strategic initiative in the war and has the ability to vary the direction of impact. The truce as expected turned out to be partial and the war goes on.
The talks in Astana and is expected to start on January 23, and the statement of the foreign Ministry of Turkey agreed with Lavrov’s invitation to these talks of representatives of Trump, in order for the first time after Trump takes office, the United States will take part in the discussion on the current situation in the Syrian war. Apparently there is and will be the first consultations between Russia and the United States on the subject of clarification of relations in Syria. Immediate and decisive progress is unlikely, it’ll probably be probing of positions.
In General, the parties expected the talks in Astana on January 23 and subsequent negotiations between Russia and USA that somehow will clarify many important points for understanding the future course of the winter-spring campaign of 2017. Prerequisites to a complete end of hostilities of course not – it is about changing foreign policy situation around Syria and the definition of the list of hot fronts, where fighting will continue and which will be created by military means the conditions for the subsequent peace talks.This negotiation step is necessary to consolidate a new military-political reality established after the defeat of the “green” in the battle for Aleppo.
The militants here in Dec put up a stubborn resistance to hold the strategically important valley, upon which they could affect the water supply of Damascus. Attack from the South, the militants are confident enough to beat it. But the Syrians came in on the other hand, the impact of the SAA and groups “Hezbollah” to the North of the valley, led to the fact that the rebels lost a number of tactically important heights and their position in the Western part of Wadi Barada has deteriorated. After that, they immediately asked for an armistice.
Of course, the propaganda of the militants and the Western media screaming about the “humanitarian crisis” as if it is not the militants have threatened the water supply of Damascus. As in the case of Aleppo, the emphasis in the propaganda done on the effects of the bombing and the representation of the local militants of “moderate opposition”, when in fact the majority of militants in Wadi Barada are the militants “Al-Nusra”, which the Western press actually protects.