The General scheme of the development of operations in Central Syria.
The current configuration of the front line creates for SAA and its allies numerous opportunities associated with the use of the advantages in manpower and technology, as well as due to the possession of operational initiative.
Fighters at this stage is constrained to defensive operations and are capable only of tactical counterattacks. SAA, in turn, can maneuver forces, accumulate shock fists and beat where the Caliphate is weak, as the forces of “black” are not enough to fully keep the fronts of such length. His main forces in Eastern HOMS and Hama to the East, the “black” with great difficulty trying to slow down the dissection of the territory of the Caliphate into two parts, forced to expect blows from the North and from the South.
In theory, can equally probable to occur three boilers:
1. Small boiler at associated with the Union forces advancing from the area Ithriya and SAA forces in Eastern HOMS, which is necessary to take Juvies and move North, coming to the rear agarbathi group of the Caliphate. The most difficult from a practical point of view, because here the most concentrated a large force of “black”.
2. The second option involves the surrounded by all forces in Eastern HOMS and Hama to the East, for which the group coming through the oil fields Gazal and Shaer goes straight to the North, and troops from Ithriya go to the South-East, connecting in a mountainous area West of Akerbat much.
3. A large boiler. Troops advancing from Sukhna connect with the forces advancing from the South-Eastern regions of Raqqa. At the moment it is the most likely scenario Now between the Syrian troops in fact only 28 to 34 km on the right and one small village. The main forces of the Caliphate are to the North-East of Sukhna and can only help a tactical counterattack. Serious fortifications there, and at the SAA’s overwhelming superiority in armored vehicles, not to mention the air support. In the case of compounds of the SAA is to the North of Sukhna , you get to actually dissect a Caliphate in Syria into two parts, with a significant part still retains the combat capability of the troops of the Caliphate would be no supply within the boundaries of a huge pot.
It should also be noted that the solution of these problems, will in the course of the year to establish oil production at several oil fields in Central Syria that will ease the economic situation of the Syrian government, and security on a number of key communications in Central Syria not only enhance overall transport connectivity to ensure the development of offensive operations in the Eastern regions of the country, but will facilitate the process of restoration of peaceful life in the liberated territories, although of course the struggle against the remnants of the gangs “black”,the clearance of vast areas and the fight against possible terrorist attacks, a long time will not give ordinary Syrians feel safe.
The ambitious plans of the SAA hampered by the insufficient number of forces for the entire length of the front line, but due to the possibility to concentrate its troops for strikes and strategic passionate of the Caliphate, allow you to easily create a significant superiority on the main axis. It should also be noted that as the involvement of Russian military advisors in the planning of the operations of the SAA, they have become more efficient, walking away from the chaotic action of 2015, which at times looked not as part of the overall plan, and how chaotic the attempts to attack everywhere. Now, everything is done more consistently and clearly that is facilitated by the existence of agreements with the United States and Turkey, relieving some of the problems for SAA, and allowing Damascus to concentrate on the defeat of the Caliphate occupied a vast territory which will be in the coming months released. If 2016 was a decisive turning point in the war against “green”, it is already likely that in 2017, Syria, Russia and Iran have achieved a decisive breakthrough in the war against the Caliphate. But the path to the complete defeat of the enemy will be long and bloody.