Turkish troops on the border with Kurdistan | Colonel Cassad

Taking into account possible escalation in Iraq at the end of September, this military activity looks like a pre-preperation “just in case”, though perhaps the Turkish General staff has a more serious agreement with the Iranian military on the subject of action to prevent the dismemberment of Iraq. The official explanation from the Turkish military emphasized that the military exercises are aimed at practicing cooperation in fighting terrorism. As DAESH is long gone from the area, it is quite clear who the Turks mean.

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Unlawful presence | Colonel Cassad

SDF operations to the North of Deir-ez-Zor demonstrate that the Kurds are for the United States is the main bet in the ongoing war. While there is the factor of ISIS, the United States remains able under this pretext to support the Kurds, at least until the moment when finally taken Raqqa (probably by the end of autumn, plus or minus a month) and the liberated territory to the North of the Euphrates.

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Hama, Homs, Raqqa. 11.07.2017 | Colonel Cassad

The concentration of reserves for an attack on the position of the Caliphate in Eastern Hama and Eastern Homs is the logical consequence of not too successful attempts to directly break the defense of militants in the direction of Akerbat. Unlike high-profile successes in the South of Syria, here the pace of progress is low, the enemy has organized and effective resistance, good use of terrain and tactics of mobile groups to organize a chilling action. The forces that were concentrated in the Eastern Hama in may 2017, was obviously insufficient for the solution of operational tasks that demanded as the transfer of additional forces withdrawn from the Western areas of Raqqa province, and the Russian air support, which should facilitate the solution of command problems.

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The beginning of the US-Russian truce | Colonel Cassad

The truce is of course will not stop the war, and will be another temporary backup as long as there are no long-term agreements on the future of Syria. Real negotiations on the future of Syria between the major coalitions and their fellow travelers will start after the Caliphate is defeated and the boundaries of the spheres of influence of the parties are determined, which will become a platform for talks on the Syrian settlement and the interests of the major participants in the war, or serve as starting positions for the next phase of the war, without the Caliphate.

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Briefly on Syria | Colonel Cassad

During the fighting near the town Hamdia (Golan heights) affiliated with “al-Qaeda” group “Hayat Tahrir al-sham” the militants were found with Israeli medical packages, which once again confirms the obvious fact that Israel also supports radical Islamist terrorist groups in Syria that are used to weaken the Syrian government. Earlier the network already got footage of Israel providing aid to militants on the border with the Golan heights, not to mention the strikes that the vast majority of case are carried out in the interests of jihadists.

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Afrin 30.06.2017 | Colonel Cassad

On the one hand it is a common phenomenon, but in the current environment, when Turkey constantly spins the flywheel charges the Kurds of terrorism, this shooting and shelling on the border can be a handy excuse that would allow Turkey to finally justify the invasion of Afrin. Social.networks already walking called “the Sword of the Euphrates”, as a possible name of the operation the Turkish army by analogy with the operations of Dzharablus and al-Baba, who was called “the Shield of the Euphrates”. Various sources note the high concentration of Turkish troops and Turkish-controlled fighters vs Afrin.

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Turkish military ready to target YPG-held Afrin, Tal Rifat | Daily Sabah

The Turkish military is gearing up for an all-out offensive on areas currently held by the PKK Syrian affiliate Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its People’s Protection Units (YPG) militia in northern Syria, military sources told Daily Sabah.

The Turkish military is expected to launch an operation near the Turkish border town of Kilis to take the PYD-held Afrin, Tell Rifaat and Minnigh Military Airport in a move that Ankara has insinuated for a while.

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Afrin – On the brink of an invasion | Colonel Cassad

In the evening, reports appeared (mostly on pro-Turkish resources) that Russia allegedly relinquished military police forces from Afrin in those areas where the invasion of the Turkish army and the militants controlled by it can be started, and in the canton there are supposedly only 14 personnel.

According to other sources, including and in Afrin, the Russian contingent is still in Kafr Jana. No Official confirmations or denials of this yet. Over Afrin a Russian spy plane has been seen.

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Turkey launches offensive against the YPG in Syria

What lies ahead? For some time, Turkey has been moving troops and weapons to Kilis, which is located just north of Azaz-Mare – which is east of the YPG-controlled area of Afrin. Meanwhile, Idlib, where Turks and Russians are planning to enforce the de-conflicting zone, is south of Afrin. In other words, Turkey will have to prevent YPG attacks against Azaz-Mare and protect its troops stationed in Idlib by pacifying the YPG elements in Afrin. It remains to be seen whether the military build-up in Kilis is limited to the de-conflicting zone in Idlib or part of a broader plan involving Afrin.

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The US activates the Kurdish question | Colonel Cassad

From the parameters of the agreement between the US and the Kurds, we can conclude that the United States understands the threat, hence the liabilities associated with the use of Rojava to attack other countries, which implies a rejection of the very very open support of the PKK, which is waging a guerrilla war in Turkey, uses the territory of Syria and Iraq for their rear bases and training camps, which is why Turkey considers the legal Kurdish organizations as supporters of the PKK, and therefore, as “terrorists”. This is an attempt to sweeten the bitter pill for Turkey, which is extremely irritably responds to the supply of arms by the Americans in Rojava.

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Offensive in Eastern Aleppo | Colonel Cassad

The advance detachments of the SAA have actually come very close to the outskirts of Maskanah. At the same time, the line of militant detachments, which signify the front line to the south of the city, is quite vigorously being pushed back. In fact, the front itself is no longer there – the militants continue to retreat to the east, resting in separate settlements, but with a similar level of resistance, the SAA is coping well. Maskanah is essentially the last major city in the province where the Caliphate will be able to provide less or less organized resistance, and further down to the American enclave near Tabqa, the terrain as a whole favors the offensive of Syrian mechanized formations that are supported by the Russian Air Force and the Syrian Air Force.

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