In the night of Monday, January 20, 2017, the militants “Jaish Khalid bin Walid”, which is considered a branch of Terror grouping “Islamic state” (ISIS, prohibited in Russia) suddenly attacked their rivals from the jihadist Alliance “Hayat Tahrir al-sham” led by the terrorists of “jabhat al Fatah ash-sham” (DFS, banned in Russia) in the South-West province of Deraa.
On the background of Turkish setbacks, things are going well for the Syrians, and Kurds. SAA continues to advance towards Deir-Hafer, and the Kurds compress Raqqa in the East and spread their influence to the southern borders of Rojava in the direction of the Euphrates and Deir-ez-Zor. In light of this situation, Erdogan’s statements that he wants to attack Raqqa, look a bit detached from military reality.
In my opinion, the real war and especially the battle of al-Bab, revealed serious institutional weaknesses of the Turkish army, which in peacetime was not so obvious. This applies both to the training of mechanized units and command structures responsible for operational planning. As a result, for several months, one of the strongest NATO armies can’t defeat a group of militants numbering about 3-3,5 thousand men in al-Bab, with at least a five-fold superiority in manpower, not to mention the overwhelming superiority in artillery, armored vehicles and aircraft.
The results of the active work on the creation of “the 5th Legion”, already seen during the attack on Palmyra.The guys that train at our photos, you’ll get the opportunity to prove themselves during the spring campaign of 2017.
Overall, the operation to storm al-Bab is delayed while the parties solve their problem, and if the SAA are quite clear on their operational objectives, the actions of the Turks cause much more questions as to their military planning. In the end, the elimination of al-bab group of the Caliphate will obviously take more time than expected.
The rapid advance of Kurdish light infantry and the support of the American aircraft easily broke through the veil of “black” to the North-East of Raqqa, and attempts to counter them by throwing in the reserves do not give the desired results. The Kurds suffered losses, but kept the occupied territories, which creates prerequisites for further “crimping” of Raqqa to the East.
In fact, at al-Bab the Turks are trying to gnaw through the defense of “black” in the Western areas of al-Bab, gradually moving to the center of the city. The enemy provided a strong resistance from the 9th-11th February. However, the retreat from Tarifa, the Elevator and the intersection, and termination of counter-attacks, can attest to the fact that “black” began preparations for the retreat of al-Bab, for which they must hold Bza ah to preserve a corridor for the retreat, which they can use today or tomorrow night to salvage the main forces from encirclement and destruction. The abandonment by “black” of Qabasin can be a marker of acceleration of events. In General, it is a kind of squeezing of the boiler rather than the encirclement and destruction.