Yesterday liberated a vast territory to the South from the road Palmyra-Tiyas that has large strategic implications. Secured the southern flank of the groups leading the offensive in the Palmyra, eliminated the threat of invasions from the South on the communication line of the advancing groups completely eliminated any threat of al-Qaryatayn, fighters in Eastern Qalamoun completely cut off from their colleagues operating in the area of the Jordanian border, created excellent conditions for the further release of Central and southern Syria + expect increased transactions of the SAA in Eastern HOMS to cut off the ledge to the North of Tiyas.
The Syrian army continues to develop the successful attack East of Aleppo. One group comes along the banks of the Euphrates to the administrative borders of the province of Raqqa, along the way, pushing the militants in the South.
In turn, the formation of SDF/YPG continues to advance toward the Euphrates to the East of Raqqa. The city itself is actively not touched – the main effort concentrated on the capture of key towns, roads and bridges on the Euphrates, that is guaranteed to cut through the logistics of militants between Raqqa and Deir-ez-Zor.
The enemy lost the town took up defensive positions in the mountainous terrain to the North from the road Palmyra-Tiyas and providing a flanking effect, inhibits attempts by SAA to move from Palmyra in the direction of Deir ez-Zor. The SAA are therefore forced to spend a portion of their forces on the Northern flank, trying to secure control of the heights and the mountainous area to the North of the road to get there comfortable position for the defense, to do mounted shock troops to advance to Deir-ez-Zor and conduct supporting operations to the North and South of the city…The main problem on both sides, front length is too large for the available forces, therefore, of paramount importance is the ownership of the initiative, which jihadists owned in December-January. Since February, it passed into the hands of the Syrians and their allies, and this was reflected in the operational environment.
The Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation officially announced that the Palmyra released.
Syrian armed forces with the support of the Russian space forces have completed the operation to capture Palmyra. This was reported to the President of Russia Vladimir Putin, defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, reports TASS.
The attack on Palmyra is developing quite successfully. After the occupation of the crossroads to the East of the airbase Tiyas, the army has for several weeks engaged in heavy fighting over the oil fields to the North of the road Tiyas-Palmyra.
In the case of a successful solution for the re-liberation of Palmyra in the month of February-March in mid-spring it is possible to start the operation of unblocking of Deir ezzor, which will require additional training and focus in the area of Palmyra larger groupings, which can be mounted by releasing forces from the other areas.
About what is happening in Deir ez-Zor and Palmyra, the SAA are now deploying offensive activity against the Caliphate in three directions. You can say that the command of the SAA intends to use the difficulties of the Caliphate on other fronts and stiffness of their forces battle for Deir-ez-Zor, to use the achieved numerical superiority on the chosen directions of attacks.
As the Syrians understand the complexity of the situation in Deir ez-Zor, continuing the offensive East of Tiyas, but the pace of advance there are quite modest, to be able to talk about the crisis that forced the Caliphate to bring additional troops. In this respect, the attack in the direction of Deir hafir or the training throw on Tabqa, may force the Caliphate to reconsider their priorities, although without proper preparation, such offensive operations can be quite risky due to the lack of troops to ensure the flanks of the strike force and control over the supply lines. Apparently real plans to liberate Deir-ez-Zor were attributed to spring and have been linked to the onset of Palmyra. The defeat of the Caliphate in December 2016, the first year dealt a serious blow to those plans.
Syrian sources report, to the base of Tiyas continue to have reserves that should take part in operations West of Palmyra. Among them are units formed and armed with Russia for the 5th army corps. Also marked fresh forces “Tigers” and the Republican guard. Major battles to turn around on the line, here, Juvies-Gazal. At this stage, the army creates the conditions to advance to Palmyra. Were occupied the hills to the North of the airbase and are now faced with the task of pushing the militants near the oil fields.The resistance “black” it will be clear whether they hold the districts, or go into a maneuver defense. The main defensive positions of the “black” will be deployed to the West and North-West of Palmyra. The importance of retention Chuvashia, because based on it you can constantly strain the flank of the Syrian group. The same applies to the area of al-Shaer, in the case of the SAA will move along the route Ties-Palmyra the ancient city.
If we talk in General about SAA, Assad retains the strategic initiative in the war and has the ability to vary the direction of impact. The truce as expected turned out to be partial and the war goes on.
The talks in Astana and is expected to start on January 23, and the statement of the foreign Ministry of Turkey agreed with Lavrov’s invitation to these talks of representatives of Trump, in order for the first time after Trump takes office, the United States will take part in the discussion on the current situation in the Syrian war. Apparently there is and will be the first consultations between Russia and the United States on the subject of clarification of relations in Syria. Immediate and decisive progress is unlikely, it’ll probably be probing of positions.
A major battle is brewing in the western countryside of Palmyra, as over 7,000 Syrian Arab Army (SAA) soldiers prepare to push back the so-called “Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham” (ISIS) from the ancient city and nearby gas fields.
The last 3 days fighting in the area of Tiyas are in a positional stage, the initiative of the DAESH fighters was extinguished and thus operational crisis that emerged after the defeat at Palmyra can be considered dealt with. Now we have to prepare the preconditions for a counteroffensive and to follow the activity of “black” from the South, as they do not stop attempts to circumvent the base from the South via al-Sharif and to go to the track Verglas-Ties.
Now it is reasonable to question what the SAA will do in this situation. You can of course take the intersection to the East of Tiyas and start moving along the route, along the way taking lost 8-12 December position to the South of the line, Julisis-Gazal, but it will only return the situation to what has been, and will retain the same risks that led to the defeat at Palmyra. It seems to be more competent step would be the occupation of the intersection and the attack on Juvies and adjacent oil fields, to secure the Northern flank, and only then to deploy the attack on Palmyra.
Syrian sources reasonably suggest that the murder of the Russian Ambassador in Ankara, may be the result of problems with the withdrawal of foreign military advisers from Aleppo who are still hiding in the city and in this case, and suggest that the murder of Charles can be found among the secret services of the citizens of those States, military advisers which are still in Aleppo.
The Caliphate however continues their attempt to achieve victory at Tiyas, although the last 2 days they lasted rather by inertia. They attempted but failed to advance to the crossroads of Furqlas-Tiyas from the North. The problem for the Caliphate is that their advance coming to a stop is likely to lead to the loss of operational initiatives to the SAA due to the bringing up of reserves which can if necessary quickly move on the road Tiyas-Palmyra, where the “black” in fact have no defensive positions up to the city. Overall, this development allows a fairly optimistic view on the prospects of SAA in the East HOMS, while is still early to say that the crisis is fully overcome .
The terrorist militants exported from Aleppo to Idlib burned the green buses intended to evacuate the wounded and civilians from Shiites from the enclave in Idlib “in protest”…Regarding the situation in the front, today the news are optimistic. The militants have been pushed out of South-West Tiyasa.
In terms of long-term strategy, the loss of Palmyra of course greatly complicates the preparations for the unblocking of Deir ez-Zor. This is actually the main operational problem with the loss of Palmyra. But as we have shown failure at Palmyra and Tabqa stretched far ahead of “gut” with open flanks, quite vulnerable to attacks on communications and for planning the return of Palmyra, or a more ambitious hike to Deir-ez-Zor have to solve a non-trivial task of protecting the flanks of the advancing group. But it is rather a long-term problem.It appears that without preliminary Stripping of the oil fields North of Palmyra in the direction Itree, to launch an offensive in Deir ez-Zor is unlikely to succeed. While the SAA deals with more mundane things associated with the stabilization of the front in Eastern HOMS.
In the next 2-3 days in the area of Tiyas expected bad weather, which will hamper air support that could set the stage for surprise attacks using suicide car bombers, with the aim of breaking the main line of defense, so the Syrians need to carefully monitor the activity of the Caliphate – from the idea to capture Tiyas “black” have not declined.
It is clear that the group in the area of Tiyas requires strengthening to reflect such threats. Overnight another 200 fighters “Hezbollah” pushed into Tiyas, which is encouraging, as the Lebanese are very strong infantry, which when necessary, is able to abut, during the fighting in Rampage have experienced assault troops “Al-Nusra” and “Ahrar al-sham”. Also Sidorenko reported that the position of the SAA in the area of Tiasa out of 20 people emerged from the environment near Palmyra.
Currently, the SAA addresses the challenge of ensuring the defense of Tiasa and hold the road to it. It is obvious that here will try to solve the issue of halting the offensive activity of the Caliphate, which was unable to build on the success achieved at Palmyra. Judging by the statements of the resources of the Caliphate that taking Tiyas was planned two days ago, in the expectation that demoralized the Syrian side will continue to retreat in the direction of HOMS. But the Syrians were able to stretch the offensive and “black” immediately slowed down.