In the case of a successful solution for the re-liberation of Palmyra in the month of February-March in mid-spring it is possible to start the operation of unblocking of Deir ezzor, which will require additional training and focus in the area of Palmyra larger groupings, which can be mounted by releasing forces from the other areas.
About what is happening in Deir ez-Zor and Palmyra, the SAA are now deploying offensive activity against the Caliphate in three directions. You can say that the command of the SAA intends to use the difficulties of the Caliphate on other fronts and stiffness of their forces battle for Deir-ez-Zor, to use the achieved numerical superiority on the chosen directions of attacks.
As the Syrians understand the complexity of the situation in Deir ez-Zor, continuing the offensive East of Tiyas, but the pace of advance there are quite modest, to be able to talk about the crisis that forced the Caliphate to bring additional troops. In this respect, the attack in the direction of Deir hafir or the training throw on Tabqa, may force the Caliphate to reconsider their priorities, although without proper preparation, such offensive operations can be quite risky due to the lack of troops to ensure the flanks of the strike force and control over the supply lines. Apparently real plans to liberate Deir-ez-Zor were attributed to spring and have been linked to the onset of Palmyra. The defeat of the Caliphate in December 2016, the first year dealt a serious blow to those plans.
Syrian sources report, to the base of Tiyas continue to have reserves that should take part in operations West of Palmyra. Among them are units formed and armed with Russia for the 5th army corps. Also marked fresh forces “Tigers” and the Republican guard. Major battles to turn around on the line, here, Juvies-Gazal. At this stage, the army creates the conditions to advance to Palmyra. Were occupied the hills to the North of the airbase and are now faced with the task of pushing the militants near the oil fields.The resistance “black” it will be clear whether they hold the districts, or go into a maneuver defense. The main defensive positions of the “black” will be deployed to the West and North-West of Palmyra. The importance of retention Chuvashia, because based on it you can constantly strain the flank of the Syrian group. The same applies to the area of al-Shaer, in the case of the SAA will move along the route Ties-Palmyra the ancient city.
If we talk in General about SAA, Assad retains the strategic initiative in the war and has the ability to vary the direction of impact. The truce as expected turned out to be partial and the war goes on.
The talks in Astana and is expected to start on January 23, and the statement of the foreign Ministry of Turkey agreed with Lavrov’s invitation to these talks of representatives of Trump, in order for the first time after Trump takes office, the United States will take part in the discussion on the current situation in the Syrian war. Apparently there is and will be the first consultations between Russia and the United States on the subject of clarification of relations in Syria. Immediate and decisive progress is unlikely, it’ll probably be probing of positions.
A major battle is brewing in the western countryside of Palmyra, as over 7,000 Syrian Arab Army (SAA) soldiers prepare to push back the so-called “Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham” (ISIS) from the ancient city and nearby gas fields.
The last 3 days fighting in the area of Tiyas are in a positional stage, the initiative of the DAESH fighters was extinguished and thus operational crisis that emerged after the defeat at Palmyra can be considered dealt with. Now we have to prepare the preconditions for a counteroffensive and to follow the activity of “black” from the South, as they do not stop attempts to circumvent the base from the South via al-Sharif and to go to the track Verglas-Ties.