Unlawful presence | Colonel Cassad

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Thesis for the requirements of the Ministry of foreign Affairs of Syria to withdraw American troops from Syria.

1. At this point, the United States obviously did not withdraw troops, as they will use the excuse that they are there “to fight ISIS”, which is why warnings and threats from Damascus they will pointedly ignore, as they did in the district At-TANF until the Iranian “proxy” did not pass Al-TANF and not left to the border with Iraq, due to which the meaning of the invasion from the territory of Jordan started to lose and the Americans moved on to Northern Syria. International law then of course not even close to sleep, but when the United States drew attention to it.If you can act outside of international law, the United States usually do not bother themselves plausible justification, limited to far-fetched and formal pretexts to “protect its national interests” in other countries.

2. SDF operations to the North of Deir-ez-Zor demonstrate that the Kurds are for the United States is the main bet in the ongoing war. While there is the factor of ISIS, the United States remains able under this pretext to support the Kurds, at least until the moment when finally taken Raqqa (probably by the end of autumn, plus or minus a month) and the liberated territory to the North of the Euphrates.

3. After that, the US will have to find another excuse to stay in Syria, which can be associated “with the support of the inter-Syrian settlement,” or a return to the policy of total rejection of the Assad regime, which is associated with the crossing of the separatist aspirations of the Kurds and covert support of jihadist groups in the “zones of truce.” Yesterday Lavrov said, “the truce” in such areas will not last forever, thus pushing the militants and their sponsors to accelerate the diplomatic end of the war between Assad and “green” for Russia, Iran and Syria.

4. But still under the Caliphate, a potential escalation in the war with Assad “green” and the Kurdish factor, are yet delayed, as the parties yet improve their position for the next stage of the conflict at the expense of ISIS. When ISIS disappear, ignore and ignore sushestvuet contradictions will no longer, as they become a direct obstacle to the conclusion of the war. USA in this plan one of the obstacles.

5. Such demands on the part of Syria part of diplomatic training, which Russia and Iran use in future negotiations with the United States and its allies, in order to demonstrate the precariousness of the US position in Syria, in order to make hegemony more accommodating when it comes to developing basic parameters of post-war Syria.The diplomatic way is the carrot and the stick is the threat of a resumption of hostilities against “green” (because of the current layouts on the front, may even be beneficial to Assad, who will be able to achieve new successes, and then offer a truce in better conditions), as well as potential pitting Erdogan to the Kurds, to make them more cooperative in relations with Assad, the Kurdish plans of federalization takes a tough stance.

In any case, important to understand that battling ISIS in Syria, the war ends and there’s still at least need to finish somehow at war with “green” and to solve the Kurdish question. Russia in this regard will naturally continue to support Syria in the framework of the stated diplomatic positions, both military and political means. Ultimately, the goal of Russia is quite clear – you need to be able to announce that the war in almost complete triumph for the Russian-Iranian coalition, and Syria preserved as a state.One victory for ISIS there is little after the defeat of “black”, and still had a serious fight which will define the post-war image of Syria. Oppo substrates in it from the Russian Federation more than serious – the US, Saudi Arabia, Israel. But having allies Iran and Syria, and such a companion Erdogan, the chances of the Russian Federation in this fight fascinating, especially given how the Russian coalition were already beating the us in 2016-2017, which is very clearly reflected in the map of areas of control in Syria.

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