Hybrid war in Sweida | Colonel Cassad

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Briefly about the US airstrike in southern Syria.
Today there were reports that American aircraft attacked a mobile group of the Shiite militia, which moved in the direction of the border with Iraq. Specifics special there – in the social networks write about the destroyed carts and even tanks, but no clear evidence yet, although the fact that the strike in the American press recognizes, with reference to anonymous sources in the Pentagon. Later, the Pentagon officially announced https://vz.ru/news/2017/5/18/870849.html that an attack on Pro-government forces had suffered because they approached the area of the us special forces in Al-TANF.

What’s happening here? Distribute schematically the General disposition.

The US, Britain and Jordan by the hands of the “New Syrian Army” action with Jordanare supporting the “rebels” in the province of Deraa, which is a desert with sparse network of roads and settlements, which the Caliphate does not control. The fact that the map is usually drawn either in black or green, in fact bare desert nobody controlled – the importance of the road (especially road junctions), sparse settlements, few strongholds in the wilderness, which rather denote the presence and show the flag, rather than form a single front line or provide control over the vast nothing.

The deterioration of the situation for the Caliphate in Syria, has created the preconditions for occupation of large areas of Central and southern Syria, for which there is a serious struggle. On the one hand, we see operations of the U.S. and the Kurds in the area of Raqqa http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3421864.htmlon the other hand, SAA, with the support of Russia conducts offensive operations to the East of Aleppo, moving South from the base of the Giro, as well as developing an offensive in HOMS province, increasing efforts in the Palmyra area.

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Promotion to the North of the airbase Tiyas.

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Mi-28 HQs of the Russian Federation in the area of Palmyra.

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The battery of howitzers Msta-B firing at the positions of the Caliphate to the North-East of Palmyra.

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Hit from ATGM in T-62 “the 5th Legion.”

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The advance of the SAA on the line of Deir Hafir Jira. Lost major outposts to the East of Aleppo, the front of the Caliphate naturally rolled to the South. Sporadic counter-attacks on the Giro much success did not bring them.

In the South, the US plans was the connection of the enclave “green” in Eastern Qalamoun with the main forces operating from Jordanian bases. To do this, they had to come together at the crossroads to the South of al-Qaryatayn (where we have already seen US special forces). But these plans were amended. Connection of the SAA and the Shiite formation tied to Iran, began a rapid advance eastward, with the result that not only occupied two strategically important intersection of roads, but also created the premise for the complete environment “green” in the Eastern Qalamoun, along the way to solving the problem of securing the southern flank of the Palmyra group. It is not difficult to notice at the current state of Affairs, “green” in Eastern Qalamoun hopelessly lost the race to the East. But this is one side of the coin.


Trophies seized from the militants in Eastern Qalamoun.


Promotion on the road “Baghdad-Damascus.”


Many photos of East Sweida here https://twitter.com/MmaGreen

On the other hand, Iran is implementing more ambitious plans related to the rapid roll to the border with Iraq, in order to accelerate the connection of their groups in Syria with connections to “Hard-SHAABI” force in Iraq (about 150,000 people under the gun) and take control of the border with Jordan and Iraq, depriving Americans of the ability to conduct operations in Syria through the proxy structure. About plans for the accumulation of efforts of Iran to Syrian and Iranian theater of operations in early 2017 http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3178613.html. It is also worth noting the February report ISWhttp://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3224166.html, which also stated that Iran will continue to develop its hybrid strategy with regard to the Syrian and Iraq war.


A collective image of the war with the Shia Caliphate.

In may it was possible to see how Iran arms its “proxy” started implementation of active strategies in South-Eastern Syria. Therefore, Iran and pushes mobile groups farther to the East to the border to take a more favorable position for the subsequent phases of the war.Ideally, Iran would be beneficial to push the state to the border of Syria groups “Hezbollah” mixed in with the SAA, then to the side of the Rutba move back the troops “Held-SHAABI” and to issue “meeting on the Elbe-2”, raised on the border of Syrian and Iraqi flags, while de facto, it will open the way for freer transfer of military resources from Iraq to Syria, it will facilitate the subsequent sweep of the Caliphate and strengthen the position as Assad and Iran in Syria.


Fighting in the area of Rutba between the Caliphate and the Iraqi security forces.


According to the data of the Caliphate, the Iraqi army and security forces lost over the last month in the district of Rutba 122 people were killed and 39 vehicles.
Problems to the North of Rutba, as well serve as a barrier to the implementation of ambitious plans.

As the main force of the Caliphate are North of this theater, and the forces of “green” here is rather limited and without the support of us special forces little to fit (see “the Defeat at Abu-Kemal” http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2833358.html and “On the Syrian-Jordanian border”http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3348480.html), the Iranians (under the Syrian flag) actually carry out a deep offensive operation in the operational vacuum, as the opponents not strong enough to seriously strain the flanks (with the exception of raiding). Therefore, it took an air strike to curb Iran’s ambitions are “Hezbollah” and Iraqi Shiites, trying to build on the success achieved in East Qalamoun.In addition, since the beginning of may there is a media campaign against Pro-Iranian Shia force in Anbar province, who are accused of war crimes against the civilian population in the territories freed from the power of the Caliphate (about the Mosul of course word). As you can remember about stuffing the wound of the IRGC General Qassem Soleimani in the southern region of Syria, which was later refuted.


Qassem Suleimani at the funeral of one of their colleagues in Iran.

It appears that the ambitious plans of Iran join their forces in Southeast Syria with the groups operating on the territory of Iraq, did not remain without attention of the Pentagon and he is now actively oppose, within the framework of information and psychological operations, and such air strikes.

The first round of the battle was left for Iran, which won the race in Eastern Qalamoun. Now we look at the second round, where the question, will Iran be able to ensure control over the road leading to the border with Iraq. If Iran win this fight, the Americans and the British would remain only the almost bare desert. Therefore, the United States raises the stakes.

Of course, an airstrike on the “Hezballa/Shiite militia” could intensify fighting in South Syria, South of Calluna, and in Deraa. Iran could insist that the Syrian air force has supported the further advancement to the border and retaliated upon the American “proxy”. It is not excluded that this topic will be discussed with Russia, although Russia is now more interested in further development operations to the East of Aleppo and East of HOMS, which is now focused on air support activities. In Russia the situation objectively best, as on the one hand Assad grows territory, and Washington’s plans to connect its “proxy” with the encirclement of East Calluna were ripped off.

On the other hand, the Kremlin is forced to accept the fact that Iran, in addition to joint plans for support of Assad, is and their views on the development of operations in Iraq and Syria. It is also an important feature of the coalition war http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2914062.htmlthat does not imply complete agreement of the allies on all issues. On the subject of is the attack in Sweida development of pure Iranian strategy or the matter has been coordinated with Moscow, will see the nature of subsequent events and the reaction to American activities in the area of the Jordanian border.

We can say with confidence that in South East Syria will continue the revitalization of the hybrid war that gets very sparse coverage in the press. The main players acting in their hands “proxy” or special units, solve problems of redistribution of spheres of influence that are important for the further conduct of the war, and for potential negotiations on a final settlement.

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