In relation to the new aggravation of the rumors about “Afghanistan 2.0”, which appeared after this article http://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2017-02/soeldner-russisch
At the current stage, Russia is cooperating with the current government in Kabul on military-technical http://warfiles.ru/show-137516-zamir-kabulov-v-afganistane-poka-net-alternativy-russkomu-oruzhiyu.html and intelligence cooperation https://ru.sputnik.kg/opinion/20170207/1031650088/o-chem-dogovorilis-rossiya-i-afganistan-v-voprosah-borby-s-terrorizmom.html. The group of Russian troops in Tajikistan at this stage is to ensure stability in the country, in order to prevent the spread of the Afghan war on its territory with the subsequent radical Islamization of Tajikistan and the spread of the epidemic in the neighboring Republic. Exercises quite openly practiced fighting with a conditional terrorists in this country http://www.ntv.ru/novosti/1746180/ Tasks for the conduct of the war in Afghanistan of course not (at least yet), as well as signs of the appearance of Russian troops in Afghanistan.
Losses of the Afghan army and security forces in men and materiel
in More detail on the losses for the 2016 year http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3232110.html
The idea of war in Afghanistan with the Taliban or the Caliphate or the Taliban and Caliphate immediately, don’t actually promise any real military prospects, because Russia in any case will not be able to use grouping adequate to the task of defeat of the local halifatchikov and especially the Taliban, who is 16 years of war against the United of the U.S. and NATO, numbering at its peak from 150 to 180 thousand soldiers, not to mention the various PMCs and the local army numbering from 200 to 300 thousand people. As a result, the Taliban now dominates and has good prospects for the conclusion of the war in their favor.The open military intervention of the Russian Federation on the side of the regime in Kabul is unlikely to reverse this trend.
Exercises in Tajikistan “Search-2016”.
In practice, in Russia there are the following choices:
1. To maintain the status quo on the Tajik-Afghan border, limited by the current level of cooperation and to continue to observe an endless war in a neighboring country that broke off the teeth by the Americans.
2. Actively support the current regime in Kabul, retreating from a confrontation with the Taliban and Khorasan province, which would not change the balance of power, but rather stimulates the interest of the opponents in undermining Tajikistan.
3. To negotiate with the Taliban, what the Russian foreign Ministry has repeatedly hinted, appealing to the obvious fact that the United States and China quite a contact with the Taliban, who are interested in full control over the country.
4. To fit in a nominal campaign with the Americans against the Caliphate in the province of Nangarhar, if the issue of cooperation in Afghanistan will emerge in the discussion of a package deal between Russia and the United States.
5. To play the role of a peacemaker, focusing on the establishment of the mixed regime in Kabul, which will include as representatives of the current government and representatives of Taliban, with a view to the withdrawal of U.S. troops and NATO from the country.
Nangarhar. The Khorasan Province.
As for me, more prospects, promises non-interference in the ongoing war there and study options related to recognition of the Taliban one of the parties to the inter-Afghan settlement (which the Americans, by the way, have long agreed), so that in case of his coming to power, to there not hostile to an unrecognized government that will continue to drive the heroin through Central Asia to Russia and ready to set fire to Tajikistan, and more or less sane regime that can guarantee security and reduce the production of heroin on its territory, and will be on their own to fight the Caliphate.In principle, that had already expressed Kabulovhttp://afghanistan.ru/doc/104549.htmlyesterday, Lavrov reiterated that the Taliban, who are in Russia listed as a terrorist organization, it is also necessary to involve local settlement that calcium American scheme, in which the Taliban offered to meet part of the government and to abandon attempts to fully get rid of the Americans and their puppets. The conditions for the recognition of the Taliban in November announced the same Kabulov.
“If the Taliban recognize the Afghan Constitution, cease the armed struggle and break ties to international terrorist groups, it will have the right to become a political force in the country. In fact, this right is not granted to the UN is won, and the Taliban have made it.” (C) the special representative of the President of the Russian Federation in Afghastan Zamir Kabulov
, the Taliban, in turn, negotiating with the government in Kabul, also makes its own conditions, some of which Kabul is willing to accept.
Last week, the Afghan Ambassador to Pakistan Omar Zakhilwal said that the Afghan government is prepared to resume negotiations with the rebel Taliban movement. According to him, “currently, Kabul contacts with the Taliban office in Qatar, despite the fact that formally, the interaction is preparatory in nature”: “we are Also in touch with several influential leaders and commanders of the Taliban.”As noted Zakhilwal Omar, the Afghan government “set before the Taliban clear the terms of negotiation, but is open to dialogue and ready to consider proposals of the Taliban side.” According to the Afghan diplomat,“the Taliban have expressed interest in the formal resumption of its Qatar office, the withdrawal of foreign troops, the exclusion of their leaders from the sanctions lists of the UN, as well as the release of members of the movement who are in places of imprisonment”. Omar Zakhilwal noted that one of the main obstacles to negotiations with the Taliban is “external influence on the process” “We will be able to negotiate with the Taliban, if you will discontinued their support from the outside.” The Afghan Ambassador also said that in the case of the end of hostilities in the country will be no need for foreign military presence, “so that the requirement on the withdrawal of troops is doable”. “The statement of Omar Zakhelwal on the preparation of a new round of talks with the Taliban are essential, as is done in the eve of spring, usually when the opposing sides are preparing for peace, to active hostilities, — commented the Director of the Center for modern Afghanistan studies (CISA) Omar Nessar. If these statements are the real reasons, then this chance for a truce should not be missed.It is noteworthy that Omar Zakhelwal on the eve of the spring fighting season, sent a signal to the Taliban about the possibility of the withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan if the insurgents will announce the cessation of hostilities. If the leadership of the Taliban, this signal will hear, in the negotiation process can cause a fracture”.
Recently deceased Taliban leader Mullah Omar.
In this regard, it is highly doubtful that Russia will try to disrupt talks with the Taliban, and the war with them, at least in the short term. In my opinion, the proper approach, there are no obstacles to the gradual establishment of relations with the Taliban when performing Russian conditions. As shown by an illustrative example with the turn of Erdogan’s positions on Syria, the enemy of yesterday may be at least a comfortable companion.From the point of view of pragmatism, it is important for Russia to prevent the emergence of another war in Central Asia, to reduce the flow of heroin from Afghanistan, to have at hand in Kabul more or less adequate mode, which is fighting Islamic State on its territory and not trying to attack neighbors. If the Taliban can guarantee, it is better to talk to them and not to fight that, like the Americans not to get bogged down in the Afghan swamp.If it can guarantee the current regime in Kabul (which there is some doubt), then the choice is also obvious .At this stage, the issue of recognition of the Taliban is already quite discussedhttp://afghanistan.ru/doc/106032.htmlbut the solution is still not accepted because there are no long-term guarantees on postwar Afghanistan.
The Arab caricature of the negotiations, the U.S. and the Taliban in Qatar.
Below, two polar positions about the potential of the Russian policy in Afghanistan, was to better understand the real issues.
On the one hand, in Afghanistan, the intensification of Russian interest in this country is considered as part of the ongoing destruction of the existing world order and flirting with the Taliban, see through the prism of us-Russian contradictions.
Russian concerns about the American presence in Afghanistan is not news. We remember that in 2012, Zamir Kabulov also said that the position of Americans in relation to the withdrawal of their troops from Afghanistan is ambiguous because, on the one hand, they promise to withdraw its troops from the country in 2014, but on the other – require the signing of a security agreement with Afghanistan. Such contradictory statements of American officials at that time had caused concern in Moscow. In response to these concerns, some persons in Afghanistan through the media said that their state is independent and has the right to sign agreements with any country, proceeding from its national interests. Critics of Russia’s position stressed that the opposition of any country with the foregoing, would constitute interference in the internal Affairs of Afghanistan, an assault on national sovereignty.A prerequisite for such statements was the belief that the US is the only superpower and no other country on the globe is not able to counter this country, and such concepts as “bipolar” or “multipolar” world, in the past.
People who believed in it, today has to admit that the current world is not the same as it was in the last years of the XX century. The Afghan government must accept the fact that the world is changing, and if Afghanistan is not able to conduct this process of rapid change and will continue to believe that he will be able to withstand all the problems and challenges with the support of the United States, it will be a big mistake.
The sole ideology of world leadership of the United States and new wars that brought the United States and its allies around the world, were the result of pride of this country. The purpose of war by the American forces, was to get the world to recognize the dominance and global hegemony and to establish a world order that will be dictated by Washington.
From the very beginning of these campaigns, there was the belief in the frailty of a unipolar world with the sole leadership of Washington.Of course, the US was also aware of this position and used all his opportunities in order to oppose it. For example, to combat the increasing day by day and spreading throughout the world power of China, the United States moved closer to India. During his visit to new Delhi, President Barack Obama unequivocally said that India could become a close ally of America on the issue of control over the power of China and the United States ready to provide India any help and assistance in this matter.
In the struggle with Russia, which began with the collapse of the Soviet Union in the last years of the last century, the United States set out to expand NATO to the East and take Russia in the siege by placing its missiles in Poland and the Czech Republic. However, the Russian responded to these attempts and fought back the Americans ‘ actions. The confrontation between the USA and the Russian Federation on the background of the Ukrainian crisis for the first time put American unipolar world before you call.Annexing the Crimean Peninsula to its territory and support their followers in Ukraine, Russia has demonstrated that the days of the neutrality of Moscow in international events were held, and in order to protect their own interests in the world she is ready to confront any power, even the United States of America.
“Old friend”. Gulbuddin Hekmatyar.
At the moment Russia is extremely sensitive to the situation in Afghanistan.Moscow adheres to the position that one of the reasons for the unstable situation in Central Asia is the US presence in Afghanistan and the presence of American military bases on the territory of this country. The Russian Federation has made it clear that she was concerned about the spread of the zone of action of the “Islamic state” in Afghanistan, and even more this concern is enhanced by the fact that the government of the IRA accused of involvement in this process.
While the Afghan authorities in coordination with the US and the West sought to eliminate the name-I-Islami Gulbuddin Hekmatyar from the “black list” of terrorists, the Russian Federation declares that it will take more time for consideration of this case. One of the reasons for the delay probably lies in the old impermanence positions Hekmatyar, making it unpredictable personality when making political decisions.In addition to the conflicting positions Hekmatyar during the civil war he had previously declared their sympathies first to al-Qaida, and then to the “Islamic state”, but later renounced his words. Russian officials are suspicious of the change in the US position in relation to Hekmatyar, given the past of the leader of grouping “Hizb-I-Islami” – even his name was mentioned in connection with the explosion at the world trade Center in new York in February 1993 and are now trying to exclude from the “black list”, not to mention his long struggle with the Afghan government.It is not excluded that Moscow can see in Hekmatyar agent, newly smuggled into Afghanistan with the anti-Russian mission.
On the other hand, Hekmatyar is known for his tough stance against Iran – of course, this country is also against him. It is therefore possible that between Iran and the Russian Federation also conducted an exchange of views on the issue of exclusion or not to leave Hekmatyar from the “black list”. However given the fact that Russia still supported the deletion of names of some Taliban leaders from the “black list” of the UN, it is likely that the reason for delaying the decision on the exception from the same name list Hekmatyar is Moscow’s desire to simultaneously exclude from the sanctions list the names of some Taliban figures interested in the question of reconciliation.
However, it is not necessary to provide a harmless moderate Taliban fighters. They like the Caliphate, as well have committed and are committing numerous atrocities as part of their method of warfare is the most banal terrorism moral and ethical positions to justify extremely difficult. Below, the position of those circles Afghan “establishment” that offers itself to Russia and China, instead of the Taliban.
Karzai’s meeting with Obama.
Afghanistan.Ru: Mr. Mehdi, recently we have witnessed the tripartite consultations in Moscow with the participation of Russia, China and Pakistan. Kabul was extremely dissatisfied with the meeting. Whether the absence of representatives of the Afghan authorities, could cause perturbations of Kabul or the reason lies elsewhere?
M. Mehdi: I believe that to an even greater extent than the government in Kabul, the meeting was disturbed people in Afghanistan. Especially a certain part of the Afghan population, namely people in the North who for years fought with the Taliban and has suffered significant losses and casualties.The current position of Russia and China left everyone in amazement. Of course, we understand the concerns of Russia and China. We realize that it’s bothering them. But to resort to such rusty and obsolete weapons, which is the Taliban, created by Pakistan, in cooperation with the United States and Saudi Arabia, is not constructive. Surprisingly, Russia is responsible for the conspiracy that, in its view, the US is preparing against it in the North of Afghanistan, using old weapons, which was created by the same America. We are not just concerned, we are still surprised by the fact that Moscow and Beijing have resorted to such weapons.Afghanistan is almost in a state of war with the Taliban daily and lose an average of 50 of his sons from among the members of the security Forces. The government of Afghanistan, despite all its weaknesses, mistakes and that it sometimes is not itself know what he’s doing, can not fail to feel anxiety in such a situation.
Afghanistan.Ru: In the statement, which was issued after the tripartite meeting in Moscow, concern was expressed in connection with the extension of the influence of ISIS in Afghanistan. Earlier in one of your articles You wrote that Americans move ISIS to the North of Afghanistan. But at the same time, information is available indicating negligible presence of IG in the North of the country. What do You think, how justified are fears of the penetration of ISIS to the North of Afghanistan?
M. M.: Yes, a plan to move the “is” exists. They say that ISIS is being introduced to the North through Badakhshan. The question is, where ISIS gets into Badakhshan, if not from Pakistan? Badakhshan is bordered by some countries other than China, Tajikistan and Pakistan? It is clear that the ISIS terrorists have come from Pakistan. At the same time, I believe that some countries are “IG” exaggerated attention. This group in Afghanistan is not a local phenomenon, and so it will be very difficult to evolve and spread in this country.The worldview of ISIS is not only limited to the Islamist components, as it happens in the accident. Besides religious issues, the “IG” there are other very specific slogans, including the ethnic aspects of Arab identity. This reading of Islam does not take root in the North of Afghanistan.We have seen how the Taliban raised the flag of “ISIS” during the first attack in Kunduz after the fall of the province. And they raised their banner as soon as I realized that the government forces once again returns itself Kunduz. That is, it was nothing more than a disguise, changing the flag and name. Is it possible to assume that two such great powers as China and Russia, not noticed and not solved this game?
Karzai in Moscow.
Afghanistan.Ru: One of the questions that you were asked these days in Afghan political circles, was the question of how the two countries such as Pakistan and Russia, between which in the past there were not good relations, were able to bring their positions closer and to trust each other. How did it happen that the solution of the Afghan issue Moscow resorted to the participation of Pakistan?
M. M.: it seems to Me that this has contributed to certain groups in Afghanistan, which put a lot of effort. In particular,if you look carefully to many of Mr. Karzai’s trips to Central Asia and Russia, we can see that they all sought to justify the Taliban and strengthen their role. Otherwise, what was the meaning of these constant visits to Moscow? From the outset it was clear that certain circles, including Mr. Karzai, are trying to secure the connection of the Taliban with Moscow. Mr. Karzai played on the side of Pakistan, and thus lost the government of Afghanistan. The Afghan government was surprised to see that missed their chances in the game with the Taliban and is no longer involved in this game.In my opinion, the role of a bridge in this game play people from Karzai.
Afghanistan.Ru: Why did the leaders of the former Northern Alliance are unable to maintain their contacts and relationships with regional allies?
M. M.: I have repeatedly said and continue to say thatthe remnants of the resistance movement, or yesterday, the Northern Alliance and the surviving colleagues of the national hero of Afghanistan lost their former allies, headed by Russia was in elementary the game and made a fatal mistake of trusting who came to Afghanistan to the Americans. They forgot that the US have their chips and their pieces in this game. Thus, all the victories and achievements that we had during this time, and for which we have sacrificed so many people, including Massoud, we, as they say, “poured water on the hands of the opposite party.” Today they got to go cap in hand and beg for handouts from this opposite side. I believe that the future of Afghanistan, in the interpretation, as it seems to us, not the Taliban, will be connected with Russia and Central Asia, in short, SCO.But surprising to me that our friends chose their allies, people who are our historical enemies. How Russia could forget about the fact that the Taliban officially recognized the Chechen Republic “Ichkeria,” and first opened its Embassy! I hope that high-ranking officials in the Russian Federation will reconsider their attitude to the reports on Afghanistan, which provide them with their representatives.
Meeting the President of China with President of Afghanistan.
Afghanistan.Ru: What, in Your opinion, will be the final fate of policies in Pakistan against the Taliban, as well as Russia and China?
M. M.: it seems to Me that this game won’t last long, since Pakistan will never abandon its strategy of spreading its influence and plans to create a climate of instability and crisis in Central Asia. It is part of the strategic policy of Pakistan. Today he plays a game called “IG” and pretends that he is on the way with Russia and China. But the reality is that the ISIS terrorists are infiltrating in Badakhshan, and from there to Central Asia through Pakistan. Soon Pakistan will unclench my fist, and the truth will come out.China and Russia realize that they had also been cheated in the same game, which was formerly deceived by others.
Actually, here we already see criticism of the recognition of the Taliban as Kabul was withdrawn the brackets contacts with this movement from USA, China https://ria.ru/world/20160730/1473234819.html and the Russian Federation. Alternatively, the proposed integration of the current regime in Kabul in the SCO, which in turn will exacerbate the conflict of the Russian Federation with the Taliban and Pakistan. So there’s a kind of element of choice – on the one hand it is possible to pursue the legalization of the Taliban in the Qatari spirit of U.S. talks with the Taliban. On the other hand, it is possible to bet on the regime in Kabul. Of course, there is a third option – not to make a final choice and “continue to monitor” by taking on the winner, or viewing it through the prism of relations with the United States, acting according to the situation.
Benefit from direct involvement in the war on the side of Kabul seem to be rather abstract, as a military victory there will not be close. The Americans and their allies, have long given up on the idea of defeating the Taliban,and are looking more or less decent contract this neznamenitaya war. Even a military victory over the mean power of Khorasan province, is hardly possible within a reasonable time, which clearly showed the last 2 years of the campaign in the mountains forces the Afghan security forces and the us military.Separate groups of Russian PMCs, or even force the MTR, it is unlikely that there is something fundamentally going to change because of the complex nature of theater and the open border with Pakistan, through which there is an intense traffic of fighters, weapons, drugs. On the other hand, is not the fact that in the current state of the Taliban may be prepared to give those assurances which he gave in the late 90s, when in exchange for partial recognition from the international community, it has drastically reduced the production of heroin in Afghanistan and tried at least externally to elevate ourselves.And about some connection with the Islamic State is also not to be forgotten, although they are now rather more fighting among themselves than to ally.
Given the fact that China, Iran, Pakistan and the United States have in Afghanistan, its interests, any drastic steps in Afghanistan has not agreed with the big players, seem extremely unlikely.
For example, in India, a very negative look http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/the-great-game-folio-chinas-taliban/ the processes associated with the legalization of the Taliban, fearing that it would lead to an increased influence of Pakistan and China. So that the sharp choice in favor of one of the parties, may on the one hand to improve relations with some countries and, accordingly, to worsen with others. Therefore, the issue of support of those or other initiatives requires a balancing of the interests of the Russian Federation in relations with other countries. Careful policy leads to the fact that the participants of local wars, understanding the decline in the US role in the region begin to seek other points of support, going beyond the paradigm where everything depended on US..Therefore, the Afghan MPs after the songs about the greatness of the United States, turned on the record about the greatness of Russia and China, and lobbyists reconciliation with the Taliban making frequent visits to Moscow and Beijing. The world really is changing before our eyes and the echo of these changes are audible even in a backwater like Afghanistan.