At 7 PM, the situation for the SAA in the area of Palmyra continued to deteriorate.
The militants control of city blocks, while contradictory reports, the fighting in the South-Eastern part of the city still continued, although on other evidence from Syrian sources, the troops withdrew from urban areas to the crossroads West of Palmyra, which means that the city virtually abandoned. In General, we can say that the Caliphate captured Palmyra, although continued fighting suggests that control is far from complete.
Unclear situation with the airport Palmyra – the militants claim that the city is fully captured, including the airport, Syrian sources indicate that the airport is not busy. This maintains the threat of the militants to the highway Palmyra-Ties that can cut Syrian troops near Palmyra from the main line of supply, plus can be a threat to Tias.
Under severe pressure on the Northern flank and the loss of all the key defensive positions to the North and East of Palmyra, the SAA will be hard pressed to organize an effective counterattack to regain control of the city, only air strikes will not solve the problem – it requires additional forces to reinforce the front to the North from the road Palmyra-Ties and the strengthening of the group near Palmyra assault squads (which you can pull from the Damascus), so as to rely on the militia according to the latest battles quite risky -direct confrontation with assault groups of the “black” militia frankly can not stand, the difference in quality of infantry proved to be too noticeable.
It is important to not take themselves quarters that the army left without big fights, namely the lost positions of the defensive perimeter of Palmyra on the adjacent hills, which obviously will require strengthening the Palmyra group of the SAA.
Judging by the photo and video materials from the area of fighting, SAA suffered in the battle for the last day of substantial losses, “black” took a lot of trophies, although so far only showed a few captured howitzers and antiaircraft guns near the Elevator, but in the text, claim that captured up to 20 units of armored vehicles. Also there is information that in the hands of the Caliphate could get ammunition and ammunition that were stocked in the spring of 2017, the first year for the offensive on Deir-ez-Zor.
Syrian sources indicate that SAA has departed from the city in coordination with the Governor of the province of HOMS. In principle, the loss of all key items to the North of the city, this is a forced decision that the troops were not in the boiler, as continuing fighting in the city, the army risked losing the intersection and to lose his only line of supply. As it is noted that had cases of panic and abandonment of position from the Syrian militias, which contributed to the collapse of the defence to the North of the city.As usual a fairly high efficiency demonstrated Shahid-mobiles that are allowed to break the Syrian defenses in the Elevator and to the North of the city.
Regarding the questions on the topic – where 4,000 fighters, you should remember that it is not in the same field so much together, and on a wide front that stretched from Chuvashia to SHERU, thence skirted the Tadmor and Palmyra Elevator and stretched further to the South-West. On the direction of the main attacks on the typeface and on the crossroads South of Chuvashia militants deployed a battalion of infantry supported by tanks and carts.In fact, the “black” created a kind of equivalent of 3-4 BTG, one of whom tried to break through to the highway Palmyra-Teas (by the way there even SAU lit), and the rest attacked from the North, East and South directly at Palmyra. From the East and North edge of the Syrians was broken, which led to the occupation of the city, which the defense was not suited.
As is clear from the available evidence, the accumulation of force occurred by the transfer of reserves out of Raqqa and Deir-ez-Zor. Regarding the statements that “reinforcements from Mosul”, then let me remind you that the only road from Mosul to Syria from tal afar last week or 2 as cut and Mosul is in the operational environment and in the Eastern neighborhoods are bloody battles.If there was transferred to the reserves of Iraq, it is likely that from Anbar province, where they are easiest to pull out of operations in the area of Palmyra, the more force there is group not so long ago had almost repulsed the Iraqi Rutba and there could be reserves that could be used for an ambitious operations in the vicinity of Palmyra.
It is unknown who exactly was responsible for exploration in this direction – or the Syrians, but that the enemy was able to achieve not only tactical, but also operational surprise, it was pretty obvious. Night counter-attack and rush the work of the VKS RF are unable to reverse the unfavourable development of events, and arrived from HOMS reinforcements were not enough to stabilize the front. From the Caliphate was obviously having a place of sufficient quality planning and measures to ensure concealed concentration of shock troops, which is why the pressure front from the North was clearly above what was expected. Perhaps the preparation of the Caliphate was taken for the preparation of conventional RAID, which hoped to stop the forces operating in the province of HOMS, and when it became clear that the threat is even more serious and the enemy’s plan is more ambitious, the time for early relief of this threat was lost.
About abstracts on the topic of “Palmyra was left for the stabilization of the front,” in my opinion these statements are detached from reality. On the contrary, recent days, the Syrians were making serious efforts to strengthen the front, transferring reinforcements to Tias and Palmyra, which was underpinned by a serious work of the Syrian and Russian aircraft (which was directing ground teams).If preparation of “black” to attack has been previously opened, then nothing is prevented in advance to bring reinforcements, stopping, for example, operation in the Eastern ghouta, or by removing the troops from the front in Hama, where an assignment of one or two villages would not have much importance compared to image costs from the loss of Palmyra.It appears that the reasons are purely of a military nature – if the real plan of the enemy, and mounted shock troops would be opened in advance and take appropriate countermeasures, no conspiracy theories would not help the Caliphate. But happened what happened.
Of course, SAA will survive this failure, as has been experienced many such failures, although it is a pity and lost people and lost equipment. Russia of course also worried about image blow when so carefully prepared propaganda campaign to rescue Palmyra, completely went off, giving opponents a reason to gloat at the success of the Caliphate at Palmyra. But however, the war consists not only of victories, there were defeats, especially in the Northern Hama or under Tabqa. Unpleasant to tolerate such failures? Of course unpleasant. Victories have many fathers but defeat is always an orphan.To give up of course should not – after Stripping Aleppo (where today still the 2nd quarter was released), at the SAA will have the opportunity due to the released forces to take revenge.
https://twitter.com/RamiAILoIah/status/808001178168659973 – infantry Caliphate on the streets of Palmyra