Mosul, Kirkuk, Aleppo | Colonel Cassad

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Thesis on the events in Iraq and Syria.

1. Mosul.

1. The offensive of the US and on To Mosul is developing quite successfully, but the collapse of the front fighters of the question of the Caliphate everywhere resists and goes to the city with the fighting. According to statements by Iraqi and American sources, from the beginning of the offensive, the militants have lost about 400-450 killed. According to the militants, the attackers lost about 200-220 killed (mostly as a result of attacks of suicide bombers). At the current rate of attack, a direct assault on Mosul should begin in late October, early November.Storm it will be the Iraqi army, the Kurds of the Peshmerga and US troops and NATO. Turkey also wanted to take part in the assault, but received an official refusal from the Iraqi government, which continues hysteria about the fact that the Turks are in the North of Iraq without the explicit consent of Baghdad.


The column of Iraqi armored vehicles moving towards Mosul.

2. USA is certainly not averse to implement the plan of backroom agreement with the Caliphate, that he handed over Mosul and retreated to Syria, and did so even before the US election. This whole scheme is reminiscent of secret negotiations, the US and Britain with Hitler’s Germany in 1945, where one of the topics discussed was passing the front in the West and concentration of all efforts of the Wehrmacht against the red Army. Apparently among the “black” they found some friends (given the Genesis of ISIS this is not surprising) and the local “Karl wolf” got some promises. But apparently they had a leak (at the local “Karl wolf” found the “Stirlitz”) which revealed what was behind the curtains, causing the plot was discovered and several dozen involved were executed. Thus, the radicals from the leadership of the Caliphate has shown that it is not ready to play in the American game.

3. Apparently, here played a role exploration one of the countries interested in the implementation of this plan of Americans. The information on the channels to Iranian, Turkish or Russian intelligence and then to legalize it to open before the tip of the Caliphate the fact of the secret negotiations behind her back. Judging by the reaction of the bosses of the Caliphate and mass murder that followed behind it, leaking his role is well played and the likelihood that the militants will leave Mosul and go to Syria in my opinion is greatly reduced. In practice, this translates into significant resistance from the troops of the coalition, the massacres in Mosul (including the executed conspirators over the past week in Mosul executed more than 350 people). Well, to put a spoke in the wheels of opponents, and the Caliphate carried out the attack on Kirkuk.

2. Kirkuk.

1. Strength equivalent to a reinforced battalion, broke through the fragile front at the junction of the positions of the Peshmerga and Pro-Iranian Shiite militia and broke into one of the largest cities of Iraq. In the city they received support from local terrorist cells that are connected to attacks on key buildings in the city and the positions of the security forces. During hours of fighting “black” took several quarters of the city and key buildings, and then they rolled a counterattack.In until recently, relatively peaceful town (not counting terrorist attacks) turned street fighting in which the Kurds and the Iraqis lost from 85 to 140 people killed. The Caliphate lost in the battles of 58 killed. Were killed and dozens of civilians. At the moment, the Caliphate lost much of the previously occupied areas of Kirkuk, but the full cleaning of the city from the “black” speech does not go. Coming to the city Peshmerga reinforcements, which should help to complete the sweep of Kirkuk. Given the correlation of forces, the coalition forces must clear a city within the 1-3 days.

2. The blow was sudden and obviously it completely overslept and local intelligence services and American intelligence. The Caliphate once again managed to surprise their opponents and trick their high-tech intelligence. Only the relative weakness involved by “black” forces have saved Iraq and the Kurds from large troubles. If the Caliphate brought to Kirkuk several thousand fighters, he could turn another major city in your Outpost, the storm which was fraught with destruction similar to what was observed in Ramadi and Fallujah. And so, Iraq, and To apparently get off easy fright.It should also be noted that the military command of the Caliphate continues to adhere to old strategies, when in spite of the adverse balance of forces, the troops of the Caliphate, when possible, strive to transition to the offensive, which often brings certain success, as opponents of the Caliphate still be underestimating.


Street fighting in Kirkuk.


Killed alifatici.

3. Traditionally, the US bombed the wrong way, covering the funeral procession in Decoke. Killed dozens of Iraqis, but the US denied everything, but who else is there apart from them or their satellites to bomb. For Russia, the Belgian bombing to the North of Aleppo and traditional American “mistakes” have become a convenient excuse to fend off an information campaign in the West associated with the bombing of militants in Aleppo.A simple stance of “look At yourself!” was quite effective, resulting in yesterday’s accusers now are forced to fend off accusations of war crimes .Apparently in response to this counterattack of Russia in the ongoing information war re-invigorated the theme of “Assad’s chemical weapons”, which he allegedly used. The prospects of these charges is near-zero, as chemical.the weapons the US and Russia at the time helped to withdraw from Syria. But opponents of Assad just handicraft chemical.weapons used against the citizens of Aleppo, and against the Kurds Afrin.But who cares, if the task is to overthrow the “bloody tyrant”.

3. Aleppo.

1. In the Aleppo continues to remain fairly stable situation. Humanitarian corridors are expected not led to a massive exit of militants, so that the renewal of the assault is only a matter of time. During the humanitarian pause, the SAA tightened to Aleppo about 4 thousand people and dozens of pieces of equipment, as well reinforcements received troops “Hezbollah” (which was badly battered in the battles of August-October) and the Iraqis from the “Harakat al-Nogba”, who are fighting on the front South of Aleppo.

Militants however do the same. The FSA and “al-Nusra” announced new efforts to release Aleppo. Called the number from 1,200 to 1,500 fighters with 10-15 units of armored vehicles, about 35-40 guns and mortars and 20 carts. These forces should reinforce the front fighters in the area of Ramushu and Laramona and strike in the direction of surrounded by the districts of Aleppo. I must say that these forces are quite modest – in August of Aleppo tried to release a group of between 9 to 12 thousand people.The difference is more than clearly indicates how the greatly reduced forces of the insurgents after a bloody meat grinder in Rampage and Artillery base. However, the tactical issues are fighters to put quite capable, so the Syrians need to get serious about this attempt, which with proper management will allow in the defensive battles to further bleed the gunmen for a long time depriving them of the ability to conduct offensive operations. If you go back to historical analogies, in Aleppo have been increasingly interested in, “when will the offensive the 12th army Wenck” and “where is Steiner?”.


The Syrian armored column goes to Aleppo.

2. Given the increase in ship groups and the likely increase aviation group, November-December, the defense Ministry expects high-intensity fighting in Central and Northern Syria. All of these military efforts are seen quite reasonable attempt to make maximum use of the available time window associated with the elections with the United States that tie the hands of American foreign policy. The Americans understand this, but can do little. The failure of the offensive in Hama and the deteriorating situation of militants in Aleppo, deprives them of the possibility to influence the situation through military means.A possible attack by the militants on Aleppo USA do not lay much hope, Kurdish map by “Turkish gambit” was paralyzed, so it’s hard to say that the United States can specifically do to radically change the situation in their favor. Have to wait and threaten Russia with a finger, to which Moscow reacts according to the principle of “Vaska listens, Yes eats”.

3. “Al-Nusra” was determined to defend to stop its propaganda that the position of the maximum brings to local people and colleagues in terrorist activities. At the moment, more than 60% of the factions in Aleppo, directly or indirectly, are under the operational control of “al-Nusra”. Private militias are too weak or are just afraid to contradict the “al-Nusra”, as she has already noted the murders of civil and unstable militants who were thinking of surrender or escape from the city.All this blocks the possibility to separate the fighters, as there is one “goodwill of the United States” is not enough, the militants themselves don’t want to leave – some for military-political reasons, others for religious.

4. Euphrates shield.

1. North of Aleppo the Turkish army and the FSA continued its offensive against the Kurds Afrin North-West of al-Baba. South of the Mare drew the Turkish armored vehicles (up to a tank battalion), near Azaz deployed “maroon berets”. Turkey is trying to solve the problem of the capture of tal Rifat and squeezing the Kurds territories SDF/YPG recently took away Caliphate. The pace of advance is very modest, considering just not a comparable level of fire support that provide the Turks.3 days in the Turks and PAS modestly advanced to the Southeast of the Mare taking Hassey.Passing to the East of Mare continues the direct attack on al-Bab, but there the pace of progress is also very reasonable, the Caliphate is waging a deterrent effect, and gradually moving to the main defensive lines.

2. Since the advance of the Turks and the FSA South of the Mare can threaten the Northern part of the outer ring of encirclement of Aleppo, Damascus officially warned Turkey that it will shoot down Turkish planes, if they continue to fly and bomb without permission. It was a warning to Erdogan that he never had played in the operations South of the Mare. Russia officially does not condemn Turkey, and moreover, it is stated the improvement of relations with Erdogan.This means that Moscow continues to believe that Erdogan and his part of the deal is done and will limited to solving their own problems in Northern Syria, not interfering with Russia and Syria to solve their problems in Aleppo. It is clear that the FSA militants may have their own views on the matter, but because of their complete dependence on Turkish military assistance, there in fact, everything depends on the position of Erdogan. Without his support, FSA will not be able to advance on Aleppo, but will likely begin to retreat back to the border under the blows of the Kurds and the Caliphate. So in this story really it is important is how Erdoğan is determined to fulfill his obligations and not stick “another knife in the back”. So, with all the situational utility of its action, it is important not to forget that in the Syrian war he is not an ally, but a companion of the road which can be used and just as quickly disperse, as earlier we came together under pressure of different circumstances.


Turkish tanks in Mar.

3. The Kurds in this situation of course is unlikely to realize the ambitious plans associated with al-Bab and in this regard, “the Euphrates shield” is very close to achieving its main strategic objectives. Of course, the Kurds just this idea won’t leave and will expect another turn in the Syrian war, which will provide new opportunities in this direction. Enough successful actions of Kurdish infantry in battles with Pro-Turkish militants give YPG/SDF is reason for optimism and expectations related to the elections in the United States, define hopes for the resumption of active support for the Pentagon and the CIA. Well, to weaken Turkey, of course, work will continue on the pumping arms of the Kurdish workers ‘ Party, in order to sustain a guerrilla war in the mountains of South-Eastern Turkey and systematic attacks on Turkish military and police across Turkey. All this is facilitated by the fact that the U.S. does not consider this help to “terrorist activities” that already displays the Turkish foreign Ministry out.

Overall, the tension continues to build and the situation of Aleppo and Mosul is gradually approaching its climax and how in the coming months will develop will depend the whole future course of the Syrian and Iraq war.

Stauffenberg was Right!

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