Race to al-Bab | Colonel Cassad

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colonelcassad

19 Nov, 16:03

Race to al-Baba has entered the final stage. Advanced units of the Turkish army and  FSA troops under the control of Turkey, from the North and West reached the outskirts of the city. In the forefront you can see the outskirts of the city, which today remains the last major cities in Northern Syria that still remain under the control of the Caliphate after the loss Manuja, al Rai, Debica and Dzharablus.


The view from the Turkish positions on al-Bab from the West.

Front to the North of al-Baba.

The formation of SDF/YPG are significantly behind the pace of progress of the Turks, although it is possible that they may try to connect the Kurdish territory to the South of al-Baba, shifting the axis offensive in the South-East. Thus, it is highly likely in the near future can begin the operation of the SAA to the North of Covaris and the industrial zone of Sheikh Najjar, in order to take part of the territory South of al-Bab in the framework of agreements with SDF/YPG on the distribution of spheres of influence to the North of Aleppo.

Turkey, in turn, makes the basic rate for the occupation of al-Baba. The control of the city will crown the success of the 2nd phase of the “Euphrates of shield” started a little over two months ago, which allowed the Turks to take over 1,900 square kilometers of territory in Northern Syria, back in the big game after catastrophic for Turkey, the developments in the first half of 2016.Based on the area occupied, with the consent of Russia and Iran, Turkey got the opportunity to influence American plans associated with the creation of an independent Kurdistan, and so to preserve the right to vote in the case of the Syrian war to reach a political settlement. As Turkey’s intentions are in direct conflict with the plans of the USA on creation of an Autonomous Kurdish base in Northern Syria, the representatives of the American coalition, said that Turkey’s offensive on al-Bab, the coalition does not support and will not support.But this irritation is certainly not able to stop Erdogan, who finally got to the real action and can act without much regard for the outcries from Washington. While Russia and Iran have tacitly condone to redraw zones of influence in Northern Syria.

In the next 7-10 days to launch an assault on the urban neighborhoods of al-Bab, which is the Caliphate apparently seriously intends to protect. Across the border in the area of Azaz and al-Rai in Northern Syria continue to flow through the column with ammunition and ammunition and additional force of armored vehicles (tanks, self-propelled guns, armored fighting vehicles), are advancing towards al-Baba, where if you storm the city will need to feed the combat formations of infantry with armored vehicles and the SSA to provide her with decent artillery support.Turkish infantry actively in hostilities is not involved in Northern Syria deployed from 1500 to 2000 “maroon berets”, who are mainly engaged in the protection of deployed military camps and in the protection of key cities, although separate groups of special forces, spotters, air controllers are located in the combat formations of the SSA. All, in Northern Syria deployed from 280 to 330 units of Turkish armored vehicles (tanks, self-propelled guns, armored fighting vehicles) 2nd and 7th Turkish armies. About 400-450 units of various armored vehicles deployed near the border from Azaz to Dzharablus.In addition, significant forces deployed on the borders of the district of Afrin and the district of Kobani, in the case of escalation of the war with the Kurds, who turned out to be more serious opponent than it seemed to the Turks. In any case, attempts to push apinski Kurds from Azaz Mar the success of the Turks did not bring even with the heavy air strikes and artillery, who were unable to help the FSA to oust the Kurds.While Damascus warned Turkey that are not too fond of air strikes North of Aleppo, due to which the intensity of the fighting in November decreased slightly and the Turks were focused on the capture of al-Baba.

The Caliphate, in turn, waiting for the assault of the city, while the part of administrative officials who ruled Northern Syria, taken in raqqa province, as well as part of valuable property. Around the city deployed minefields, established multiple nodes of defense, dig underground passages. It is expected that the Caliphate will be just as active as the Mosul to use suicide bombers, as well as widely used anti-tank systems (TOW and Kornet) to fight with the Turkish armored vehicles. Given that al-Baba departed troops of the Caliphate from across Northern Syria from Azaz to Garbles, in the city can be up to 4-5 thousand militants, on the order of 10-15 units of armored vehicles and up to 80-90 carts. Taking into account previous practices, it is not excluded that in case of threat of complete encirclement, the command of the Caliphate can leave the city and move to raqqa province with the aim of saving the main force.

Overall, on the background of large-scale battles for Aleppo and Mosul, the battle for al-Bab promises to be a much smaller scale, but from an operational point of view is extremely important, as its course and outcome will seriously affect the redistribution of spheres of influence in Northern Syria, and certainly will have an impact on the future course of the Syrian war.

Turkish special forces in Dzharablus.

The Turkish military to the North-West of al-Baba.

Turkish soldiers in one of the border villages.

Transfer tanks near the Syrian border.

The transfer of 155-mm self-propelled guns “Firtina” under al-Bab.

The destruction of two Turkish tanks to the North-West of al-Baba.

Attack of the suicide bomber-BMP.

After the suicide attacks of the Caliphate in Azaz. Killed 25 militants of the SSA.

Trophy Shahid-mobile.

Clearance.

The battle for the city Cabasin.

SDF troops/YPG.

SAS troops.