Trump represents a deviation from the main line of American policy.
In this sense, he is an unexpected candidate, a candidate who does not represent either a republican or a democratic party, as they existed during the last 60-70 or even 100 years. He is largely inconsistent, but nevertheless the algorithm of his election campaign was expressed in the model of realism in International Relations.
Realism in International Relations implies the rejection of globalization, so he criticized globalism and shifted the focus to the national interests of the United States. If it is in the interests of the US to continue expansion, then realism proposes to continue expansion. If it is in US interests not to continue expansion, then realism without any problems agrees to stop this expansion. What Trump declared as foreign policy suits everyone, in my opinion, because the previous administration – republican and democratic – acted on the basis of the need for expansion in the promotion of globalization: either in the soft version of the CFR, that is, globalization with several poles – European , Perhaps, Chinese, or in the framework of a tough imperialist program, which neo-conservatives from the Republican Party adhered to. Trump was the third line – neither one nor the other. This position gives everyone a chance because although, of course, it does not get rid of problems in America itself, but gives everyone a certain chance … Trump tried to start implementing his program as soon as he came to the office, and gradually he moves in this direction. But since all the key posts in the administration were occupied by people, either by the democratic traditional model of the Council on Foreign Relations, or by the republican neoconservatives, then Trump did not have anybody to rely on … And since he does not have a team at all, and there was no such ideology in America in the last 100 years, he has to immediately transform this situation urgently. He acts as a loner, as an absolutely isolated person, for whom there is no one, and he tries to implement an entirely new approach to American politics, which in this policy was previously absent … This means that Trump is in a very difficult situation: he can be removed at any time , Either (legally or illegally), and accordingly, we can not judge its policy – simply because the previous structures do not allow it to turn around. He is only now beginning to change these people. But changing his representatives in the Middle East, across Russia in other areas, he does not really put his people (he does not have his own people), but simply others … And since all were brought up in globalist or neoconservative paradigms, he in general Puts people with approximately the same globalist and neoconservative positions, because people with views that would correspond to how Trump himself understands the situation are simply not there. Even the nearest environment is made up of random people. Accordingly, the issue with Trump is open. But the main thing that Trump does – he reduces the escalation of relations with Russia. That’s what he really does. In fact, he “appoints” other “enemies”: he makes enemies of Iran, North Korea, to some extent China – anyone. But the tense anti-Russian vector he is blurring. Trump can not immediately move from the policy of aggressive imperialism to the policy of pacifism: it is not in his platform. Therefore, he is looking for other targets and objects of attack – Iran, North Korea, maybe even Turkey. In fact, it changes the previous position of the United States. The previous ideology was directed anti-Russian and in the first place it was associated with the support of radical Islam and globalization. Trump removes the anti-Russian policy as a whole, removes the support of IGIL and removes the agenda of globalization. But it is very difficult to do, so it depends on people who stayed on the ground … This is my understanding of Trump as a whole – this is a certain trend, and therefore demanding from him all at once and quickly is not realistic. We should not also expect that this is salvation for the whole world, but the fact that it acts much more adequately and more favorably for all countries, including America, is unconditional. Trump should not be fascinated, but it does not need to be disappointed. Trump is consistent if you understand the conditions under which it operates. Something from what he was talking about, he was able to realize, although not all … So I would treat Trump as a rational policy. Everyone thinks it’s freaky, emotional, inconsistent. On the contrary, he is very consistent – he simply can not embody this sequence: he has no tools and no means. He wants to remove the left-democratic, left-liberal policies within the country, that is, the ideology of globalization, gender ideology or, at least. Lightly freeze it. At the same time, he wants to lead America out of the process of globalization, relieve tension with Russia, so as not to be forced to start World War III. He wants to leave the Middle East, that is, transfer this function to his partners – Saudi Arabia or Israel. By and large, he does not see Turkey in that capacity. That’s why Trump in a way creates an excellent situation for Eurasian geopolitics: this is a huge success and will simply be a crime, if Russia, Turkey, Iran other countries – Syria, Iraq – do not use it. This is what is called the “window of opportunity”. Even if Trump does not fully establish the royalist model, those changes in the curators of the Middle East policy, which are already at least holding back the most aggressive and negative trends in the region, do not allow us to rely on either one or the other line: something is happening there Like the collapse of US policy and this is very good for all other countries. It’s about Trump.
The second topic: the European Union. He has several perspectives. Now the EU is experiencing a deep crisis. This crisis is also ideological, because the ultra-left liberal model that prevails in it simply destroys the society – both from the point of view of emigrants, both from the point of view of gender policy, and even from the point of view of the economy that sits there . In European politics, there is a loss of identity – and this is a problem, this is a mine laid by the EU. As for the prospects. What are the prospects for the European Union? To assert its geopolitical sovereignty and return to the line of De Gaulle? Adenauer? This is almost unbelievable with the current political elites. It could be imagined under Shirak, Schroeder – that the EU would become an independent geopolitical element. Which would be neutral between Russia and America and would have its own policy. To this, the situation is being pushed even by Macron, something Merkel says in this vein also, because at Trampe America moves away from Europe, Putin is rather benevolent towards the EU – that’s why Europe now gets a chance to break away from America, to assert itself, to become the Third Pole.
I think, of course, this is opposed by all European elites, the entire European bureaucracy. It is not ready for this, although the processes are very interesting. In the same eastern Europe – Hungary, Poland, Romania, in those countries that were the most important adherents of Atlanticism and NATO – there is gradually a growing distrust of the EU. That is, the EU is in some ways collapsing, but it has a chance now to reassemble. I think that he will not take this chance, because it is very difficult to quickly change the benchmark from ultra-liberal politics. For this four-year Tramp presidency is not enough, and then it is necessary to comprehend, and Europe can not do this. Although there are chances now, but in general it seems to me a catastrophic situation. Therefore, today we can not expect any miracles in the EU. Nobody will accept in the EU neither Turkey nor Russia. On the other hand, the very idea of integration is simply discredited, that is, people now have to flee the EU. In fact, this union does not give anything to anyone. I think that this is a doomed political situation, although the chances are right now, because Russia is quite ready to support the EU sovereignty. And America is not now interested in influencing the EU. Trump treats with a certain disgust for European ultra-liberal political regimes, he understands Eurosceptics more, including English ones, he supports. He even wanted to appoint Ted Malloch as his representative to the EU, which is generally opposed to the EU (and although he did not appoint, he was already close to it). Therefore, I think that Europeans now have a unique opportunity to reinvent themselves, but for this there is no political will, there are no elites, and therefore, it seems to me that Europe will not take advantage of this. It will not be able to understand that new times have come and that it is necessary to change its agenda from the globalist ultra-liberal to another. Europe has no subjective factor in political elites – neither mind nor will – because gradually the European elites have become so decomposed that today they are not experts and not intellectuals, but ordinary people with a level of consciousness the same as ordinary Europeans are below average, That is, the elite as such in Europe ceased to be reproduced, and people who did not possess elite qualities came to power. They live in a trend. But they can not take decisions themselves. They depend entirely on America. America turned their back on them, so they were in a helpless state. Now their attempts to determine their own course represent a miserable sight. Because they have long delegated the right of all serious geopolitical decisions of the US – the center of the Atlantic civilization. And hardly now they will find the strength, a sufficient number of just adequate people, because they cleared all decent people from European elites – now there is one “bastard”. Therefore, Europe now resembles the dump that emigrants brought with them, combined with the ancient remnants of culture, traditions that still exist, but are less and less effective. This semi-dump is a semi-palace. It’s as if some palace is being restored and everything is done in half: in some rooms there are workers, there is a whitewash, concrete is pouring, and in some parts of the building there are beautiful rooms that are covered with mold, everywhere people wear working clothes, dragging around Some boxes on the expensive parquet … It looks like the restoration of Versailles, which is led by gastarbeiters from Africa. Unkempt, uncomfortable situation.
Is this decay in Europe? While this is difficult to say. This process can be very long. The disintegration of the EU is quite probable, but as if Russia itself has not disintegrated. We can not strictly state that the EU will disintegrate, and America will not, or, for example, Turkey does not. We are all in a very critical situation: and America can disintegrate, its internal contradictions are crossing all boundaries. Europe can disintegrate, Turkey can disintegrate, Russia can disintegrate, so it’s irresponsible, in my opinion, to say: “we will not disintegrate, but the EU will disintegrate.” No, everyone can break up now, only the question: “Who is first?”, Because if Russia breaks up first, it will prolong the existence of the Western system; if America collapses first, then the processes in Europe will be completely unpredictable.
If Europe breaks up first, then the situation is also unpredictable. In our world there is no constant in which we would be sure, maybe China has several decades of guaranteed future, all other countries can disintegrate within 5-6 years. For example, Turkey might not have existed a year ago, I can say that such a country might not be on the map – just today a civil war would begin, like in Libya. Russia, if it were not for Putin, would not have been either: the entire country rests on Putin, without Putin it’s completely unpredictable, what will happen tomorrow, whether Russia will, because there are no institutions that would cement Russia, no ideology. Putin holds it and do not have it, we do not even know what it can turn to. Because liberals can come, civil war will begin. This is a breakdown. As it was in the 1990s. A new powerful politician may come, who will continue the policy of Putin. We generally can not talk about anything beyond Putin. Putin is still alive, but imagine that there is no Putin, and Russia is again in question. China is most stable now, but on the other hand, China has many internal contradictions, and there are a lot of contradictions in India, and in Pakistan, that is, we live in a transitional period. Therefore, the EU has chances to disintegrate – there is an enormous accumulation of critical elements, it is the most doomed of all, that is, it can not exist for long in this state, because the whole situation has reached a critical stage. But most importantly, it is a graphic rapid stunning of the European liberal elites. Psychologist Jung said that the cause of many mental illnesses (certainly not all, but many) is the “lowering of the mental level”, the level of the intellectual. If a person loses a certain intellectual level, then they begin to own the inner images of his unconscious. This is now happening in Europe, which can be diagnosed: “lowering the mental level of the liberal elites.” Because these liberal elites are not sane: they have lost their reflexive capacity, they have lost the ability to think, the ability to consistently historical discourse, they are completely immersed in hallucinatory, psychogenic processes and do not understand what is happening. At the same time they live in a postmodern culture, with a huge number of deviations and distortions. Therefore this elite in itself is disintegrating, but there is no new elite, the new one does not come. Therefore, I think that the fate of the EU will be sad. This is a common feature of the modern world and sociologist Christopher Lash said that in America this process is gradually moving. And, in principle, looking at representatives of the White House, you can see the mental abnormalities associated with a decrease in the degree of conceptualization, and just the ability for systematic rational activity. There are similar processes in Turkey, I began to notice that it is often possible to meet among people in the Turkish leadership, who in general should graze goats, and not represent the president or parliament. And in Russia it’s the same. But in all these countries processes proceed with different speeds. In any case, “lowering the mental level” is a general trend. Christopher Lash wrote an interesting work, “The Rise of the Elites,” which shows that it is the elites that carry the elements of shamelessness and vulgarity in which the masses used to reproach, claiming that the mass, the crowd is immoral, has gone, it has a low look, it listens to primitive music, Shares primitive stereotypes. Today, this property is enjoyed by the elites. What kind of music does she listen to? The most primitive. What stereotypes does it share? The most primitive. Her tastes, goals in life – all this reflects a certain ideal, formed at the very bottom of our society. The system of values of modern elites is the system of values of the lower black people, the lumpen proletarians, and people with this consciousness, with such a profile rule Europe, rule Russia, largely rule Turkey and America. And so when, at some point, this process of “lowering the mental level” reaches a critical stage, as Jung describes us, the structure of the unconscious (that is, what a person lives in the subconscious) will become more and more effective, and that person does not Will be able to resist, will not be able to work with this. This invasion of the unconscious at some point breaks the structure of rational thinking, and at some point a collapse, a person, an elite, a whole country will fall into insanity and they will have to be hospitalized. Which of the modern countries are hospitalized first – this is certainly a question. There are several candidates, unfortunately, both Russia and Turkey in this number. We stand in line to fall into an incurable psychological fit, because we are stupid, the elites are stupid. Mankind has always been close, but the stupidity of the elite was not so total. Because previously there was a clear rule: smarter, more rational rule less clever, less rational … This is an ordinary social thing. Now this model fails, because we are ruled not by the less intelligent, but just as stupid as everyone else. And this is a pathological choice. Maybe this is the property of democracy, which operates with representative models. As a result, morons – the same as below, not more stupid – turn out to be above. Simply with the morons below and the demand is small: I went to the store to buy food, ate and went to bed, and when exactly the same model of behavior, only on a larger scale, begins to be practiced at the level of parliaments, political elite, experts, “respected people” who copy The lowest tastes and styles – this leads to a collapse of the system, because the system is simplified, reduced, its complexity is reduced and as a result, society is collapsing. Therefore, I think that the EU is doomed to such a collapse.
Turkey and NATO
What is the significance for Russia of Turkey, what are the opportunities for Russia-Turkey interaction in Eurasia and Turkey’s accession to the Eurasian Union. What obstacles arise in this way, and what suggestions can be made to solve these problems?
In fact, Turkey has one way to preserve its territorial integrity, statehood and the succession of power – these are good relations with Russia. They can be completely different, they can be just respect for the interests of others of each other. Now it is almost there, today the level of relations that exists between Erdogan and Putin, in fact, is such a basis with mutual respect and respect for their own interests of the two countries. If this line continues, at least, then Turkey has a chance to preserve its territorial integrity, because when we stood on the threshold of the war, Turkey stood on the verge of a split. For Russia this is bad, for Turkey it is fatal. There is a difference: Turkey would not exist after this conflict, and Russia would be seriously damaged. A person can die, and can get very serious injuries; in case of confrontation, we would get this wound, and Turkey could simply disappear, become Libya or Syria. That’s what we were talking about, and we were encouraged to do this, so that we were wounded and that Turkey was dismembered, just as we dismembered, in fact, Iraq, Syria, Libya, etc. This is very important to understand. If there was a conflict, Turkey would not exist, and Russia would be exsanguinated, that is, Russia would be in serious condition. The conflict with Turkey would strike a colossal blow, the Turks – excellent military, this is a very serious political force, an internal Islamic protest would erupt, we would quarrel with the Turkic peoples both inside Russia and the post-Soviet space. For Russia, it would be a huge disaster, but we could survive, and Turkey had no chance. Turks should not have done this under any circumstances, we also had to avoid it under any circumstances, which we tried to do. Our relations are now built on the right principle, that is, there is now mutual respect, conflict has been lifted, we are negotiating in Syria, Iraq, the Kurds, our internal relations, and this is beneficial to both sides. It is possible and necessary, in my opinion, to conclude a new strategic alliance, I think the most important axis is Moscow-Ankara-Tehran. This strategic triangle is the next level. It could be called, for example, the “Eurasian triangle”. It is not necessary to join the SCO or EURASES or in some other structures. You can join, you can not join. If we organize a military-strategic and military-political alliance of three countries – two Islamic and Russia – we would solve all the security tasks of the entire region. It could be joined by Syria and Iraq, and maybe even Libya and Egypt, but everyone had to accept that there are 3 centers of power, they are unambiguous. This is Moscow, this is Ankara, this is Tehran. Each of them has pros and cons, each has its own sphere of influence, each has its own limitations, its limits – but together we are invincible. We are equal, we are balanced, equal. This is the second level. Simply, relations are already good, but even better then Turkey has a chance not only to preserve territorial integrity, but also to solve very many problems together with us and the Iranians in reorganizing the surrounding space, which is principally for Turkey from the point of view of the Kurdish fact. We get access to Iraq, to the Gulf countries, to Egypt and to Libya, we get influence in Syria, that is, by joint actions we could achieve even stronger strengthening of Turkey’s positions. Of course, we must take into account Iran and Russia, we must completely endure Europe and America. Of course, Turkey must withdraw from NATO, which once served to secure Turkey’s sovereignty and this was correct from the point of view of Turkey, although we have always been against it (but this is another matter). Russia threatened Turkey – whether it was on the very Business, or not, we will consider that the truth. Turkey had to be defended, she could not do this alone, she found how to do it. Thus, her entry into NATO was the result of miscalculation. Now NATO does not fulfill the protective function: it was NATO and the US that were preparing a coup against Erdogan, it was NATO that opened the Kurdish factor and, we believe, therefore, NATO today is not the guarantee of security, but the most important danger for Turkey. Turkey’s presence in NATO is incompatible with the national interests of Turkey, but Turks themselves must solve it. The Turks entered NATO to ensure territorial integrity. Today, being in NATO is a danger on the contrary. Then it was security, the danger came from us, now – from the Americans, so in order to solve all the strategic issues, Turkey must be together with Iran and Russia, necessarily with Iran. Because Russia and Turkey will not provide stability in the region, since the Shiite factor is a very serious factor, we can not ignore it, it must be on our side, anti-Western and Eurasian. This is our most important third pole, in spite of the fact that the Turks are Sunnis, Iranians are Shiites, we are Christians, Orthodox, but the three of us are three powers, and we solve all problems. I foresee a closer possible integration – for example, the creation of the Eurasian states, where there will be a staff of Russia, Iran, and Turkey, and each will retain its identity. Sovereignty, open borders, where there will be a common economy, energy .. It is possible to create such a model, but this is in the future. I suppose that integration can be very serious. Russia has always fought with Turkey, Turkey with Iran, Russia with Iran, and these three powerful powers have limited each other. And if we now overcome this, we can create such a pole that the world will belong to, that is, these are the keys to the world. Russia will not be able to possess such power herself if it does not have such fundamental partners as Turkey and Iran, and together we can divide power over the world, because three such powers become irresistible power and we become comparable with China together. China is a separate issue, it will no longer be able to ignore us, it is stronger than each of us individually and politically and economically. But together we are stronger, and then all countries and regions will have the opportunity to choose. Then for India, and for Pakistan, and for Afghanistan, and for the states of the South Caucasus and Central Asia, different solutions arise, if the three countries make up the most powerful pole of the world.
I believe that we must move step by step. First, we should preserve what is now, secondly, try to organize this tripartite union with Tehran, not including anyone else with the withdrawal of Turkey from NATO, and thirdly, to strive for preparation of deeper integration.
The most important obstacle is globalists, Atlantists, Atlantic pro-Western elites who will systematically discredit this union. They can rest on the fact that Russia is not a democratic country, can involve the nationalist factor in Turkey. In Russia, too, can be used anti-nationalist factor, as well as anti-Turkish factor. The Atlantists will use any arguments to prevent this alliance from forming. Therefore, we must deliberately work out the factors that will be used by our enemies, give them a deliberate answer, so that we are not caught off guard.
The future of Syria
In Syria, Russia demonstrated its consistency; Russia was able to preserve its territorial integrity, could repel an attack of globalization, and practically Syria is a state that is a symbol of the fact that the unipolar world is no longer a unipolar one. It is not even important here whether or not someone supports Assad. If the Americans and their supporters are sentenced, it does not mean that it will happen. Russia has shown that this issue is more complex and there is only one force in the world that will decide and predetermine its fate. Therefore, Syria is a symbol of the new world. The fact that Russia along with Iran. Iraq defended the territorial integrity of Syria – this means that the situation is not what it was before, the unipolar moment is over and the Syrian problem will be solved on a democratic basis, taking into account all the participants – Turkomans and Kurds and Sunnis and Alawites and supporters of Assad and his opponents . But the most important thing is that two very important things happened: 1) this is a fundamental reduction in America’s support for ISIS, and 2) a split in the Arab-Sunni coalition for Qatar and Saudi Arabia. As a matter of fact, radical Islam lost support, significant participation of Salafis, supported by Qatar and indirectly by Turkey (at least at the previous stage). Accordingly, now this module has fallen out, and by and large to put an end to the most aggressive aspects of radical Islamism now is the time. Therefore, I think in Syria we are in a favorable position, Putin proved that this policy was correct, that the world is no longer a unipolar and Erdogan is rather late, but took this position. Now it remains only in the general agreement to put an end to the DAESH, from which it will diminish every five instantaneously, because many things were artificially maintained, and after that start organizing a long complex process of a single and territorially integrated Syria building a new political reality. Very carefully and very slowly with the participation of all who are now winners. It is important that Turkey joins the coalition as a winner, then Turkey’s interests will be taken into account in the future configuration of the Syrian policy itself. And finally, regarding the coup in Turkey. There was an important event. I was in Iraqi Kurdistan and in a conversation I was told that the Kurds were ready for this coup in advance and were ready to raise an uprising, that is, Turkey was sentenced. And if Erdogan’s correct position, the loyalty of the army, and the fact that the Kemalists supported him, and the fact that Russia extended a helping hand at that moment-all these factors saved the regime of Erdogan and Erdogan and Turkey. Accordingly, the Gulen people were only the tip of the iceberg, in reality, all the people who dealt with NATO, which were integrated into American structures that were generally associated with the West, are not only Gulens – they are all carriers of the same principle. We know that in Turkey, almost every month, thousands of people are fired from work, someone is put. This is not the end, unfortunately, the Turkish society is simply saturated with Atlantist forces, and not all of them are members of the Gulen sect. This is part of the Atlantean conspiracy to commit a coup d’état aimed at destroying the territorial integrity of Turkey. But not all people who think the same way that follow the Atlantist principles were members of the Gulenites – therefore, we must take deeper. But in order to truly get rid of Gulenism, Turkey must withdraw from NATO or create a new bloc with Russia and Iran. Then there will be real sovereignty. While Turkey remains a member of NATO, it is not sovereign. Now military-technical partnership with Russia is developing. If it develops with China or other countries, it will benefit Turkey, but Turkey must be independent, sovereign. Now she is in the Alliance system, which has a completely different plan.
With Trump, however, this is not so acute, Trump does not like Erdogan, does not like Turkey, and how then will he use military bases in the interests of Turkey? I would not be so sure so here. Today, Turkey’s participation in NATO is not a guarantee of security, but, on the contrary, is a threat. It was NATO that was the customer of the coup in Turkey a year ago and, of course, the Obama administration was doing the Clinton people, so for the time being Trump is in power, we need to take advantage of this. Turkey must withdraw from NATO and build its sovereign security system. But according to our information, very serious groupings retain their positions in Turkey and they are not directly Gulen. They are a much deeper level of who is behind the coup. In other words, now only the tops of this iceberg are being cleaned.