Two strategies against Yemen | Leonid Savin

https://www.geopolitica.ru/en/article/two-strategies-against-yemen

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06.05.2017
Current events in Syria and intentional escalation of the situation draw public attention from other hot spots of the Near East.
Russian Foreign Ministry justly noticed, the provocation with the chemical weapons was organized by the West to draw public attention from the huge civilian loses in Iraqi Mosul that happens because of the US and its’ allies.
Sometimes breaking news come from Afghanistan, where actions of ISIS (organization banned in Russia), the Taliban and USA lead the country deeper into an unsettled state.
There’s one more place with a crucial meaning- Yemen. It’s enough to look at a map to be sure that the location of the county has an enormous impact For sea communications through the red Sea and along the southern part of the Arabian coast. The civil war with the intervention of neighbors and the West has already resulted in at least 10,000 people dead, three million have left their homes and several more are in extreme need and hunger.
The recent visit of Pentagon chief Jim Mattis to Saudi Arabia to meet with the King’s beloved son, the last Prince and the Minister of Defense Mohammed bin Salman was connected with the discussion of the Yemeni conflict, which indicates the development of a strategy in Trump’s administration. During the meeting the supply of high-precision weapons from the US was also discussed, the issue was already raised in the US Congress.
Although the United States has long been involved in Yemen under the guise of a counter-terrorist operation against Al Qaeda (indeed, part of the country is under control of the terrorists), in the long run, Washington aims to retain its control of this country and parallel deterrence of Iran.
In addition, following a meeting between Mohammed bin Salman and Donald Tramp on March 14, Saudi Arabia gained some support from the White House regarding the Middle East strategy. This circumstance is indirectly demonstrated by striking of the Syrian air base, which occurred after the fraud “chemical attack”.
The Saudis also need additional US assistance in the Yemeni direction. In this “silent war”, as Western journalists called it, Saudi Arabia mainly uses aviation, striking not only the locations of the Houthis dislocation, but also the civilian population. In response, Yemen launches missile strikes on the territory of Saudi Arabia and applies the tactics of guerrilla warfare. Lack of proper experience to counter subversive activities (not only among the Saudis, but also their allies from the Persian Gulf region) forced Riyadh to rely on Washington. The recent decision by Trump’s administration to sell combat aircraft to another client state in the region – Bahrain, gives the Saudis confidence that the US will turn a blind eye to both human rights violations in their country and an unprecedentedly high level of civilian deaths in Yemen from attacks by Saudi Arabia , Which will bring them closer to the coveted help.
After the warm welcome of the Saudi Defense Minister in the United States, Riyadh took another important step towards the rapprochement of the United States by appointing another son of the King and former RAF pilot Khaled bin Salman as the Ambassador of the Kingdom in the US on April 23.
It is also known that, from the position of the strategy, the Saudis want to conduct an offensive operation to seize the important port of Hodeida on the coast of the Red Sea in order to block the husits. But, again, without serious support from the US, would not dare to take this step.
Although the military actions go on and current relations with the US indicate possible escalation of the conflict, there are problems in Saudi Arabia connected with the split of political elites, since not all of them support the Yemeni adventure.
The United States is also not very interested in direct and indirect military intervention or support for Riyadh, which could negatively affect both the image of the White House and the possible future presence of the Americans in the region. Therefore, a negotiating process exists, which can stop or freeze the crisis, and also bring “their people” to key positions in the new government of Yemen.
According to reliable sources within the country, negotiations have been held for several months to end the armed conflict between all the parties involved – the official authority, the Ansarall and the Saudi Arabia Husit movement (which is waging war with the help of the Gulf Coalition).
Leader of Ansarallah Ali Abdul Saleh came up with conditions on which a truce is possible. These are a complete immunity from persecution for him, his family and his environment, as well as full access to bills and real estate. In addition, his son, General Ahmed Ali Saleh returns to the country and participates in the presidential elections.
Current President Mansour Hadi, who had previously left Yemen, also must resign, and a compromise figure will be appointed as interim acting.
Sheikh Mohammed Abu Lohom is the main candidate for the temporary post of head of the state. He is the head of the Justice and Construction Party, as well as a member of the Technical Committee for the National Dialogue. He actively cooperated with the Ansarallah houthis movement since 2012, therefore he has confidence in this structure. It was on him that the United States and Saudi Arabia made their bid.
It should be noted that when Abu Lohom was in exile, he was in America, so the likelihood of lobbying for him interests of the West after coming into power is extremely high.
Recently, the head of the monitoring and information office of former President Saleh Ali Shabani confirmed the information that the power will pass from Hadi to Abu Lohom. And the government will be led by former Yemeni Foreign Minister Abdul Ali Saadi or former Prime Minister Mohammed Bach. On Mohammed Bach bets and support the UAE.
In conclusion, it should be noted that far-fetched accusations towards Iran to support the Houthis (no specific proof of military assistance was provided for several years) are supported by disinformation campaigns in neighboring countries where the Shiite population lives – Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Bahrain.
For example, according to the Washington Post, the authorities of Bahrain accuse Iran of organizing terrorist attacks on its territory, while Western intelligence allegedly confirms the efforts of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to conduct training and training of Bahraini Shiites to conduct guerrilla warfare and manufacture of improvised ammunition. With reference to unknown analysts, the Washington Post notes that a network of pro-Iranian military organizations is being established throughout the Middle East, especially in Yemen, Iraq and Syria.
Given the recent statement by many senior US officials on the possible strengthening of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, this campaign in the Western media serves as another demonization of this country, both in the context of the Iranian president’s election and as a continuation of the further strategy of war by other means for attrition .
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