Briefly on the Middle East | Colonel Cassad



Because yesterday in connection with technical problems with the blogging did not work as well on a number of issues promised to speak briefly about the different.

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1. In Northern Hama the front has stabilized. The militants went after the failures of mid-April, fell back to the area of Lataminah and Morek, which is reflected in the rate of advance of the SAA, which is now bogged down in battles for the towns South of Lataminah and South-East of Morek. If in these fights, SAA will be able to grind the main forces of the militants, before the Syrians will open good prospects associated with access to the Central regions of Idlib. However, to get ahead of myself I wouldn’t – the militants now pulled together here all that is possible (although some forces have delayed the onset of the SAA West of Aleppo), so quickly grinding them down will fail.


2. In connection with the attacks of the Turkish army, the Kurds, and the United States occupied Rojava on the border with Turkey, units of the 75th Ranger regiment to showing the American flag, at least in part to cover the Kurds from Erdogan. The United States is clearly not going to respond to the wishes of Erdogan, who wants to take the place as the main US ally in Northern Syria is the Kurds. Moreover, the stronger he attacked the Kurds, the more clearly manifest the position of Washington, in which weaker militarily, but the political loyal Kurds, look for the U.S. plans is more preferable than the Turkish army, coupled with the chaotic Erdogan. This position of the USA hardly have pleased Ankara, as words of encouragement from trump is one thing, but the real US policy in Syrian Kurdistan is another. The attacks of the Turks look like an act of irritation, as it is obvious they can not cause substantial damage to the military capacity of the Kurds sitting on supplies from the Americans.

The Turkish attacks on the Kurds in Afrin. Despite the fact that the attacks were in different areas, the strategic goal of Turkey – the occupation of tal Rifat and elimination of Kurdish buffer to the North of Aleppo.

One of the paradoxes of the Syrian war – the Americans are guarding the Syrian border from the Turks who cross the border to attack the Kurds.

3. Israel is striking at the warehouse Hezbollah that gets weapons from Iran, continues to insist that he is here in his own right. Russia judging by the position, seeks to distance itself from the long-running conflict between Israel and Iran. It is clear that the ability to shoot down Israeli planes, but a political solution is not evident. If Damascus and Tehran is dissatisfied with such position of the Russian Federation, the public is not shown, moreover, Iran during negotiations at the Ministry of defense, said that the fruitful cooperation with the Russian Federation will only be strengthened, which may indicate that the Israeli attack on Hezbollah are considered unfortunate, but not critical, as the Lebanese in the Syrian war so bad primarily as appliances (Syrian, Iranian, Russian), so that the loss of the Israeli strikes can be charged to collateral damage. However, the intentions of the Assad regime to strengthen its air defense, about which already there is talk, can attest to the fact that Damascus is pretty exhausted with these attacks by Israel, but not to substitute Russia under the conflict with Israel, the measures of self-defense will apply SAA. Another issue is that Israel is extremely nervous, even to the idea of supplying air defense systems to Iran, and about the supply of air defense systems to Assad and the possibility of the response to the bombing of Hezbollah may lead to further involvement of Israel in the Syrian war where the strikes on Hezbollah, indirectly play in favor of the various jihadist groups with which Hezbollah fighting in Syria. In General, I don’t think this story will lead to serious conflict between Israel and Russia, but the relationship of Israel and Iran in this regard will only worsen. Weapons Hezbollah will get one way or another – because Assad is their infantry is not enough, the Lebanese sure will not be neglected, especially because they fight well enough. Better local militias or some Afghan “Futamono”. Israel will have to accept the fact that the outcome of the Syrian war Hezbollahhas seriously strengthen their position and expanded their military capabilities.

4. In Deir ezzor, the Syrians have a good day. During the fighting in the cemetery and the 137th military base rest more than 30 militants, several dozen militants were injured.

The militants unsuccessfully went on the attack, received a harsh response, and then counter-attack by the Syrians, but in General this is a tactical success.
The operational situation continues to be severe, the enclave continues to be dissected, the supply is rather limited, but is enough. 27 Russian military transport planes dropped into the enclave of 62 tons of cargo.

By the way, in may, marks exactly a year since her last tantrum on the fact that Deir-ez-Zor have to evacuate. Another year has Passed. Heroic Deri-ez-Zor holding. I would like to believe that in 2017 it will finally released.

5. The Houthis struck several blows to the ballistic medium-range missiles in Saudi Arabia. Military support of ex-President Saleh launched several missiles at the military bases and positions of the Saudi army in Jizan province. The Saudis keep quiet about the losses, but past cases such attacks are usually accompanied by dozens of dead and wounded.

The strategic situation does not change much. The Houthis and Saleh’s control of the Western part of Yemen, the invaders, led by Saudi Arabia of Central and Eastern Yemen. Al-Qaeda and the Caliphate, occupy part of the territory of Central and Eastern Yemen, undermining the rear of the Saudis systematic attacks and terrorist acts. On the main front, fighting in the area of Taiz and the coastal zone.Small tactical successes of the parties does not change the overall stalemate of the status of the Yemeni war, when the parties simply do not have the strength to defeat each other.

Stauffenberg was Right!

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