In the history of modern geopolitics there was a very short pause, when the situation developed in such a way that the relevance of the methods of this science had moved slightly into the background. The election of Trump was built on the return to classical realism in the spirit of E. Carr and H. Morgenthau, when States rationally calculate their national interests and act accordingly to those limits that correspond to resources and power potential of other powers with their own interests. In international relations, in this case dominated the principle of chaos (the absolutization of sovereignty and the rejection of the superiority of international law over national law). All sovereign and all free to do as you want, but with the amendment that others will behave as well. If the country is large, it can build up its own policy. If is small, then is forced to seek Alliance with the strongest. A return to the Westphalian system, in a word, with some post-modernist additions – like a Mexican great Wall.
If we extend the election theses of the Trump in the next few years and assume that they would be implemented, the geopolitical agenda has changed qualitatively. I called it a transition to “vertical geopolitics”, where supporters of globalism (World Swamp) opposed to the supporters of sovereignty, and opposition to Land – Sea, East – West fade away. It welcomed the trump all – European eurosceptics to Putin, and the supporters of the trump. Everything was more or less smoothly. I could not believe that trump will win with such a program, knowing how much the Swamp hated it, but once he did the impossible, it was possible to expect precisely such a turn. This does not mean that trump would have recognized immediately the Crimea is ours. But he just wouldn’t care whose it is, because directly the national interests of the United States is irrelevant.
The attitude of Trump to the Shiites, that was more alarming, as the United States theoretically should not touch them. But everything can be attributed to his fierce controversy with Obama bet on the domestication of Iran through a network of representatives of the Iranian swamp, and sympathy for right-wing realists from Israel (Netanyahu). Moreover, once the trump has withdrawn this network in Iran, which would benefit Iran, the more conservative forces would bolster their influence – such as Ahmadinejad (here he is now running for President). And Russia would gain a new role in relations with the United States, speaking on behalf of Iran – because Iran concerns us directly, this is the zone of our national interests. About Syria and say no: if trump wanted to spite Obama and the CFR to destroy what was created by their efforts in Islamic terrorism, then it is best to do this with us, leaving Assad alone, which, in fact, one would expect from trump, and what he repeatedly said.
Finally, South-East Asia – China, North Korea and the issue of Taiwan. For the United States – a region of interests. And Russia, in turn, in the region of direct and acute interest not.
Thus, trump had promised a return to realism that would become the new model for understanding the structure of international relations. Probably, geopolitics will always be with us, but the game would be realism and therefore the New Deal would have been precipitated at a certain time among all the major powers.
It is significant that in my conversation with Alex Jones the most passionate supporter of trump, it turned out that he had very little idea about geopolitics and he understood “Atlanticism” from the book of Francis bacon’s “New Atlantis”. The format of the TV interview did not allow to highlight this issue properly, but it is significant that Alex Jones is not particularly worried. And obviously a trump, judging by his words and his books, is very far from geopolitics. Of its existence he probably is unaware. So for him and the Russian is just one of the factors in the international balance of forces: you can work with it, you can use them, they can cheat, they can conflict and not conflict – it’s nothing personal or ideological, pure business.
If it went further, it would be worth to use to start with a trump attack on the Swamp, globalism, liberals, in defense of sovereignty, of conservatism and tradition. Just so-so and thought the intellectuals of Breitbart, and even big sponsors from among the American extreme-right-wing billionaires – the Mercers and Koch. America first is a perfectly acceptable realistic slogan is reflected in our case in the symmetric “Russia first!”, or our old formula of “Russia – everything, the rest nothing.” Conditional, of course, nothing, but still nothing. And with the two sides being realistic, Washington and Moscow could strike at the European Swamp, supporting the realists and eurosceptics and there and everywhere. Everything was very promising and tempting.
But this idyll of a multipolar world, I must say, didn’t last very long. On the historical scale – a single moment. When trump attacked Syrian base in response to fake news about the use by Assad of chemical weapons, the entire picture collapsed. Trump, who for years was himself a target of the avalanche of fake news, the subject of surveillance and provocation by the Deep State, could believe it, the mind boggles. The story of Kushner and Ivanka depicting him as a complete idiot, most likely intended for mass use. But the fact remains: trump abolished the realism the whole system of American strategy is back to the usual Atlanticist track. Trump, of course, is not read during this time of Mackinder, Brzezinski or my books on Eurasian geopolitics. He even reproached Bannon that he too devotes a lot of time reading Charles Maurras. Which means he either does not read or reads some nonsense. But his behavior now (unlike the campaign) clearly present all traces of Atlanticism – classic and peculiar neocons. Syria is under the patronage of Russia. Assad could not commit a chemical attack, primarily because that would be suicide and no reason to implement it. Did this make the militants banned ISIL or brave killer White Helmets, not a big deal. It was pure disinformation – the same as in the case of the attack on Iraq. Then this misinformation held neocons. And now apparently they are the same. The Swamp and breathed a sigh of relief: instead of war with him in all areas of the planet will begin again the round of confrontation between civilizations of the Sea and the land of civilization. Again, no “vertical geopolitics”, just familiar and classic great war of continents.
Return to scale analysis simply and naturally, whichever side we didn’t look. With the Eurasian – sufficient works, textbooks, lecture courses and manuals. American with papers and books hundreds of times more. But methodologically, both sides are armed with conceptual. Not a trump, of course, but neocons that now and will set the tone in the White House. In their geopolitics more than it deserves, given the values of the state of Israel and Islamophobia, and the rest is a direct and explicit Atlanticism, unipolarity, imperialism and hegemony, including various forms of interventionism. And all that we have during the week saw the conduct of trump. Optical illusion of realism did not last long.
But still impossible to enter the same river twice: every cycle brings something new. Therefore, you should carefully look at the factors that made the very victory possible trump. I chose him not for neoconservatism, and his program laid out and very skillfully brought to the masses through Breitbart and Bannon (including Alt-Right), Alex Jones and a specialist in opinion polls Kelly Conway. Behind this group stood the shadow figure of a billionaire family Mercer. The role of Rebeca Mercer in putting Bannon and Conway in the campaign headquarters trump today. A crucial role was played by another bigger billionaire Koch brothers, who have traditionally had a network of American paleoconservatives. If the Bog went into a huddle about the siege of lending to presidential trump company, these financial groups that were and are opponents of the globalists of the CFR and the Atlanticists of neocons, deny, no one could. But… they put on trump’s a realist, that trump, who was supported by another very important and, in fact, the main authority –the American people. The people in the last decade almost completely disappeared from the scene, being replaced by a simulacrum, a media caricature. When confronted with the reality of trump’s image of American society that so hard for decades molded the Swamp collapsed. And there looked out the face of a real American has nothing to do with the normative tolerant or transgender, immigrant-feminist, which is typical of “Americans” InfoSphere Swamps, its virtual copy of the world. It is clear that it’s most silent, dispossessed majority, deprived of all, and only indignant with infowars.com Alex Jones. But this is American resistance (you are the resistance!) – resistance selected from the people of America, who in winning trump saw a very important sign –the taste of strength and power, long forgotten by these people. Therefore, in the US in addition to trump, who appeared to be a bluff, opened not just the usual CFR and neocons, but something else that gives reason not to abandon “vertical geopolitics” completely, and simply refer to this factor seriously. Yes, such “vertical geopolitics”, the struggle of the people against the globalist elite and against the Swamp, did not last long. But it is a symptom. Disappointment with trump is a natural phenomenon, and traitors generally suffer a vile fate. But still we can not clearly and simply identify the Atlanticism and globalism with the United States and America. We saw in this election a different America, the America of the deep worthy and courageous. And even if we are forced to engage in a global conflict against sea power, and we Land have no other choice, in this case we will need to strictly divide the American elite, who start a war and who need to get paid, and the real America, American America. Anti-Americanism is removed from the agenda, not only because of the Pro-Russian promises of trump, and not at all because of him, but because the American people proved their dignity by those that voted for the right idea. And it is not his fault that the carrier of this idea was nothing. Important the choice. And in addition we have seen a new phenomenon — the American conservative intellectuals, and even traditionalists. This destroys the image of the typical American as a hard-core globalist moron and consumerist guru. The real America can think. This is a discovery. And finally, this real America is against powerful and influential representatives in the face of a certain sector of the financial elite. No matter how it differed from Marxism, there is not only opposition to the international oligarchy, although it prevails, but it is national and even nationalist. And it is also in these elections it manifested itself.
So all is not lost. It’s only the beginning.