About Turkey and the threat of cancellation of Charter flights.
Of course, in a letter of recommendation for a tourism company that in the foreseeable future, there may be reasons that require the new ban charters in Turkey, there is not just that.
In my opinion, this is a fairly clear signal to Erdogan that he chose the expression in his discussion on the topic of Syria. This situation occurs not for the first time. Across from the camp of the enemies of Assad to the Russian-Iranian coalition, Erdogan has assumed certain obligations, of which he periodically reminded. The most famous story was relatively recently, when, after allegations that Turkey has entered Syria to overthrow Assad, from Moscow wagged his finger and Erdogan was forced to back off http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3103570.html and Turkish officials have started to say that you have it wrong, we’re not behind this. And if Turkey was acting only in relation with Russia.
In recent days, Turkey has managed to stand out with statements on the topic that would be nice together with the United States and NATO allies to put pressure on Assad and at the same time Erdogan, yesterday lashed at the EU, accusing it of hostility to Turkey and promising to call the EU to account. Such chaotic behavior (however, it is not a new policy, Erdogan) in my opinion can be two explanations:
1. All these loud bombastic statements are made primarily for internal use. 16 April in Turkey will hold a referendum on expanding the powers of Erdoğan, to whom it is important to show their independence in international Affairs, which made statements against Assad or the European Union, which are designed to increase support for Erdogan in military circles, among the Turkish Kemalists and other Patriotic public. They say look, we are resolute President Assad must be overthrown, the EU is the answer, Kurds in General driving on the Euphrates, and the United States has Gülen recall. That’s what we have an independent and courageous President, a gift that most of the threats Erdogan usually remains only in words. So all the loud statements by Erdogan may in fact be the usual pre-election PR.
2. But these chaotic statements, might have more serious implications. Across from the camp direct enemies of Assad by Russia and Iran, and actually contributing to the capture of Aleppo, Erdogan feels very comfortable with his new “friends” who forced him to apologize, and now demand fulfillment of commitments. Of course, Erdogan could not overlook the opportunity to cross back to the camp open enemies of Assad, completely freed itself of in Northern Syria, which can facilitate contacts with the new administration of the White House, but which is hampered by deteriorating relations with the European Union first and foremost with Germany.
As already repeatedly wrote on this subject, after Erdogan survived in the coup attempt and was replaced by the Syrian record for Russia and Iran, he proved to be a valuable companion (the companion, not an ally) with which the operation was carried out to sweep Aleppo as Assad has expanded its territory in Northern Syria, taking Deir Hafir and coming to the Euphrates. Simultaneously, Russia and Iran launched a negotiation process in Astana, in defiance of the Geneva process, backed by the US and the EU.But nothing can last forever, and the circumstances that pushed Erdogan to Russia and Iran, are subject to change. After a referendum strengthened his power in Turkey and establishing a relationship with the White House (which is complicated by the question of Gulen, the US does not want to give Erdogan), Erdogan may try once again to change direction and return to its old policy, which he was forced to withdraw in 2016, when he was forced to apologize for su-24, to remove its Prime Minister, not to interfere with the Assad taking Aleppo and to talk about the fact that Assad’s fate should be decided by the Syrian people.
In this respect, Russia advance warning of Erdogan of the consequences in the first place that restored economic ties (which was interested Turkish business, which was the primary restoration of relations) can be closed by clicking (obviously harm the Turkish tourism industry), and that he should be more careful to choose expressions (and the action) on the situation in Syria.In fact, Turkey these signals is listening, because after aggressive statements against Assad after the blow to the Sirat, foreign Minister çavuşoğlu in conversation with Lauroyl yesterday already told that you need an objective investigation chemical.attack in Idlib. In the case of Turkey, it is necessary to look not at words, but in the specific case, as if it was only threats and promises of Erdogan, he should have been open war with all its neighbors.
So if Erdogan will continue to perform his obligations, the Turkish Charter will be fine. And if you do not continue, the cancellation of Charter flights to Turkey will not be the main problem in relations of Russia and Turkey.