Briefly on Syria | Colonel Cassad

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Briefly on Syria.

1. Erdogan once again said that he wants to deprive the Kurds of Manbij. This is despite the fact that after the demonstration of Russian troops to the West and the American troops and the North of Manbij, Ankara officially this idea was abandoned.But after a while, Turkey again came back to her, after the early deployment bases on the territory of the triangle Azaz-Dzharablus al-Bab and the movement state border on the territory of the Canton of Afrin, which has raised the IRE of Damascus, which turned a blind eye to Turkish operations in the area of al-Bab, but not interested in the fact that Turkey is surreptitiously trying to snatch a piece of Syrian territory. Erdogan makes clear that despite the completion of the operation “shield of the Euphrates,” he wants to show some activity in Syria. The first attempt to attack on Manbij failed. To attack Raqqa, the Americans didn’t take it. Attempts to deprive Kurds of tal Rifat failed. In the end, Erdogan once again returned to the idea of “Give me Manbij” and continues to provoke apinski Kurds. This creates problems both for Russia and for the United States, because stability in Northern Syria is the key for operations of SAA in Hama and East of Aleppo, as well as U.S. operations and Kurds in the area of Raqqa. Erdogan faithful to his windy style of foreign policy, once again trying to break someone else’s hands. As far as he is persistent in this matter, we will see in the coming days.It is worth remembering that he could easily back off, as it was after a reprimand from Moscow, when erdoğan began to talk about the need to overthrow Assad. In the case of Managem, claims Erdogan may come from Moscow and from Washington. However, in the case of aggravation of relations with Russia and the US in Syria (due to fake history with him.attack Assad), Moscow may pretend that Erdogan’s behavior is his own business and provide Washington and the Kurds Rozhava to deal with Erdogan, especially that with the help of Erdogan to the Kurds can be given to understand that statements about secession from Syria can have certain consequences. So it is possible that this story has a second bottom.

2. The story with chemical attack develops quite traditional and expected. After stuffing, the militants and the West rushed to accuse “bloody Assad regime” and called the UN security Council, launched a campaign in the press, and trump even said that he changed his attitude to Assad, simultaneously kicking Obama for a prior policy and recommending Russia to change its attitude toward Assad. Russia of course denies everything, in the UN security Council prospects for any anti-Syrian resolution in the objective investigation as nobody is interested, so that the subject “chemical weapons” will be traditionally another element of the information war. Read more about this story herehttps://goo.gl/40xPO4

3. North Of Hama.

In the Northern Hama continues the battle began on 21 March. Seize the operational initiative, the SAA continues the offensive, trying to break through the line bakery halfayya-Tablet-al-Iman-Suran.

Major battles in the last 2 days were Mahadasa and Halfie. During the counterattack, the day before yesterday, the militants repulsed Mardas. Today, he again came under the control of the SAA. Fighters reducing the front line, increased the density of defensive orders of magnitude and the resistance increased, plus the expense of appropriate reserves, the enemy ukreplyat flank on the line Maan-Kawkab to prevent bypassing of the blow to bypass the Suran from the North.


Attacking the actions of the parties on 5 April.

The SAA in its turn tries from the area of Maanasa advance to Tablet-al-Iman, the capture of which can lead to the collapse of the front fighters in North Hama. With both sides here, the battle entered a substantial force, which leads to fierce fights. As the SAA is trying to break through the defense of militants in the area Halfie that would jeopardize the Western part of El Latnenskogo the ledge. At the moment, the militants enough to successfully hold the Fort.

In General, the parties have switched roles – now SAA is trying to achieve significant operational objectives, and militants moved on to active defence, while as the battle for Mardas, counterattacks, they did not disdain.

4. Tabqa.

By 6 April, the Americans and the Kurds tightly besieged Tabqa, continuing to expand the control zone to the East, with the apparent aim of creating conditions for the complete encirclement of Raqqa, which need to take control of the southern Bank of the Euphrates. Counterattack of the Caliphate, which he had taken on the South coast, significant results are “black” did not bring the loss of the Kurds are not of a critical nature, while operational situation in the area of Raqqa continues to deteriorate.

Given the continuing transfer of engineering equipment and various armored vehicles, the process of preparation for the direct assault on the city is in full swing. Americans build the logistical structure should provide the possibility of conducting a months-long operation to clean up the city, which also required the deployment of field hospitals, demining units, as well as opening the defensive positions of the militants in the city, which is actively monitored by American drones and satellite intelligence means. On this subject http://www.afcent.af.mil/News/tabid/4768/Article/1139503/mq-1-mq-9-aircrews-help-liberate-manbij.aspx interesting material in English on the practice of American drone MQ-1 and MQ-9 in Northern Syria.

5. Palmyra.

Near Palmyra, the SAA also continues offensive operations, forcing the Caliphate from the nearby oil Polev and mountainous terrain to the North of Palmyra.
The difficult nature of the terrain and a chilling effect on the flanks, which leads Caliphate, impede the more active promotion of the SAA along the route in the direction of Deir ez-Zor before the completion of the active phase of operations in Northern Hama, there is unlikely to be more intense activity, as group acting in the area of Palmyra clearly needs strengthening, but the main reserves are now eating at the front in Hama.So to measure the forces and capabilities of the Caliphate is being pushed to the North and North-East, but for deeper operations, the SAA will require a major regrouping of troops, which should not only pave the way for deblokady Deir-ez-Zor, but also to help to defeat the forces of the Caliphate overhanging the Northern flank of the Palmyra group.

https://goo.gl/8CKcXd feed military events in Syria for 06.04.2017 from Anna-News

PS. On the title pictures General Qasem Soleimani in Northern Hama.

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Iglinskiy question

Main
colonelcassad

Briefly on the subject of the next easy the tantrums on “the Plaster is removed, Assad leaves.” How many of them already and how many more will..

the question of the information campaign around him.attack in Idlib repeats has long been known scripts and in this case it is appropriate to divide into two parts – the diplomatic and information.

The diplomatic part of an ongoing campaign associated with attempts to push through UN security Council resolution condemning Syria and without further proceedings, to support the version of fighters, and militants close to al-Qaida. Russia as the main advocate of Syria in the UN security Council has already proposed its version of the resolution providing for the more thorough trial of what occurred in Idlib, but it is not difficult to guess, the facts in this case mean little more than nothing.
Accordingly, attempts to push through a resolution in support of the release of the militants through the UN security Council with a very high probability to encounter a veto by Russia and possibly China.

But besides the UN, there is the question of direct relations between Russia and the United States. For the United States this provocation is very convenient as it allows you to include tough language and enables the current administration of the White House to fend off accusations of pandering to Russia. They say look, we are also making a determined face. But most importantly, in my opinion, lies elsewhere.Prior to the coming negotiations Tillerson and Lavrov, United States by hilling threads provocations in Idlib, strengthen my negotiating position, seeking to force Russia to take a defensive position and try to achieve in the upcoming negotiations of certain concessions. In particular, it’s the question of Russia’s support of Assad. Russia earlier repeatedly made it clear that support for Assad is not unconditional, but that did not stop her to help Assad to turn the tide of the war. The fact that Assad is not a puppet of Russia and more or less subjective in making certain decisions.So it is necessary to remember about the special position of Iran, which as an ally of Russia in the Syrian war, has its position in the region and their share of influence on Assad.

It is not difficult to notice the attack in Idlib is used to attack an existing coalition of support for Syria, which effectively turned the tide of war in favor of Assad. It is highly unlikely that Russia and Iran have invested heavily in the Syrian war, having lost there a certain number of people, take and give up from the previous course, simply due to the fact that in Idlib killed several dozen people and arranged the next, is not the first provocation with the chemical.weapons.If this situation were new, then one could even speculate that now Russia will have a lot of pressure and it will bend in this matter, but this kind of information attack is being made is not the first time and their effectiveness each time below – for the forgetful, refer to the same information attacks the time of the battle for Aleppo. Can easily read in the posts over this period, which then wrote different defeatists and how it really is developed then the event..In General, I think that the activity in the UN security Council for this story hopeless, as a maximum, will be agreed some Committee, but no more.

In relation to negotiations of the Russian Federation and the United States, it is more difficult, because the White House is now in a difficult situation, and her pushing for specific actions against Russia in order to force trump to embark on the path that they criticized browses with Clinton. For American hawks, this topic is just a gift, which once again indicates in whose interest it was carried out a provocation in Idlib. Therefore, there is a nonzero probability that the Pentagon and the hawkish lobby in Congress will seek to compel trump is not limited to words, but to do something.If you don’t bomb Assad, they would step up arms supplies to militants to increase troops in Northern Syria, and Jordan to impose sanctions against Russian individuals and entities connected with Syria. Still, the administration trump is more likely to shy away from decisive steps to direct talks with Russia to approach them from a position of strength and try to force some concessions in the Syrian issue (for example, to return to the discussion of the timing of the transfer of the Assad government after the end of hostilities). Russia in this plan not absolutely necessary to go to meet Trump and it can also be ignored, as they ignored Obama, but still believe that the negotiation window, when possible a real review of a broad spectrum of U.S.-Russian relations is still open, although it is not difficult to see, tremendous effort has been made to shut it immediately. I believe that time there remained a little – as a maximum until mid-summer.

From the information point of view, the story of Idlib, aims to update the theme with chemical weapons Assad, but the fact of the statements Obama and the OPCW on the complete removal of Syria’s chemical weapons and their destruction, playing against this version.

As Assad problems with the motive, since he is doing well enough to take and to do such a gift to the insurgents, the Americans and other “friends of Syria”. The militants in this respect, motives galore. In the West certainly understand that, but continue to pretend that “bloody tyrant Assad infringe opposition”. This position is not new, so anything new in the field of information warfare is not happening. All this has been and likely still will be.

Attempts to accuse Russia of supporting “the war crimes of Assad” are in addition and response to the Russian information campaign to highlight the mass casualties of the American bombing of Mosul, which in turn was a reprisal for the American information campaign about “the horrors of the liberation of Aleppo”.So here, too, is nothing new – the parties exchange identical blows in the information war, so we can assume that the preservation of the U.S. hard-line rhetoric against Idlib, we may soon see a series of articles about the victims of the us military in Iraq and Syria.

It should also be noted that this story once again shows how important Syria in current world politics, when orbited by the interests of major powers and blocs, a struggle which pereformuliruem emerging years or even decades, the relations of different States to each other. As befits the largest military conflict of the XXI century, the war in Syria is changing the world around us. The desired provocation in Idlib, this is an easy attempt to channel these changes in a slightly different direction.

Especially for Anna-News https://goo.gl/Hfs5vN

Plus the Swedish report on the fabrication “of a chemical attack in Idlib”. http://chervonec-001.livejournal.com/1821146.html
Plus the opinion of the Senator, who openly asked about the same questions in my article https://ria.ru/syria/20170406/1491685164.html

 

 

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