The pause in U.S.-Russian relations
Strategic pause in Russian-American relations
the Introduction of new sanctions against the Russian campaigns cooperating with Syria, North Korea and Iran, and underlined the reluctance of the US to share with Russia the reputation of “the conquest of Raqqa” naturally brings to the agenda the question of the future of Russian-American relations. After the post-election euphoria associated with the defeat of Clinton and the globalists, are increasingly the question arises, will be clarified when the future format of relations between Moscow and Washington.
At this stage, these relations put on a kind of pause when the overall relationship is not improving and not deteriorating, pending the results of negotiations at the highest level.
The talks, Lavrov and Tillerson are more likely to be Advisory, as the strategic decisions before direct meeting between Putin and trump are unlikely to be adopted, and this meeting is tentatively scheduled until the summer. The reasons for this delay lie in the problems of trump, which is the strongest pressure from a significant part of the American establishment, which opposes normalization of relations with Russia.This has already led to inhibition of a number of internal and external initiatives trump, as well as to a series of mutual recriminations involving wiretapping of the current White House administration at the direction of Obama and the actions of the “Russian hackers”. In this situation, trump sacrificing General Flynn is forced in every way to distance themselves from Russia, to somehow stem the tide of accusations that he is a “candidate Putin.”
Russia has repeatedly demonstrated that it is willing to talk with US on equal terms, on a whole range of problematic issues (including Ukraine and Syria), but the US in the current environment, this is clearly not ready, even if trump seriously hoped that his talent as a negotiator will allow him to sign after the election is beneficial for the United States deal with Putin.The problem is that a significant part of the American military-political establishment preoccupied with the issues of preserving American hegemony, the transaction is not necessary, since the question itself is related to the conclusion of some equal trades means that Washington recognizes the changed role of Russia in the world, and consequently the weakening of its hegemony, which had previously built on the principle of “There is US and there is everything else”.The ideas trump about the deal with Russia, initially undermined this ideological paradigm and at the stage of the election campaign repeatedly obstructed as from the democratic and Republican camps. Motivation critics of trump in this question is quite simple — you can’t just take and give up the leadership, the new President should take care of the preservation of American hegemony (which promised Clinton and behind it are the circles) and not to make plans related to preparation for life in the world of post-Washington world order.
Current statements Haley in the UN security Council sanctions against the Russian campaigns, independent operations of the U.S. army in Syria, condemned the arrests in Moscow at a meeting on March 26, serve an understandable purpose, to show the Americans and their allies that the U.S. does not depend on Russia and, if necessary, can behave quite harshly, dispelling the myths that “trump is an agent of Putin.” On the other hand, these steps do not hinder the achievement of any agreements of a strategic nature, in the case that the White House will be able to curb criticism and to establish a relationship with at least part of the American elites.The question is, what full support trump can get only through extremely hard line against Russia, any attempt by the new discharge will be perceived in bayonets and they would be trivial to sabotage administrative and political levels, so from the point of view of political pragmatism, trump will continue to tip at least to the continuation of the same line pursued by Obama against Russia, that is, to maintain the indolent Cold war, where the strategic goal of the US remains unchangedto punish Russia for its actions in Syria and Ukraine and to deprive it of the ability to conduct foreign policy subject. On the other hand, trump has repeatedly surprised us, in defiance of all such inertial scripts that he was offered, so full of clarity in relations between the US and Russia so far. I believe that during April-July this clarity will come, and will define the relations between the US and Russia in further years.
The Kremlin in the current environment fully to these expectations, not hopes. In Syria, Russia continues to support independent operations of the CAA to strengthen the position of Assad before the upcoming peace talks, but Ukraine has embarked on forced economic gap LDNR with Ukraine. Continues military build-up reinforced with the formation of new connections and commissioning of new equipment.All of this suggests that the Kremlin, though not averse to peace with US and stop current Cold war, unnecessary harbors no illusions and rather operates on the principle “want peace — prepare for war”. At the same time, domestic issues trump and his squabbles with Democrats and his own party, partly replaced by euphoria “trump our”, as internecine intra-elite struggle in the USA, makes it difficult at this stage for US to conduct a more assertive foreign policy.
It appears that at this stage in U.S. relations will be dominated by confrontational rhetoric, in the presence of situational contacts like the meeting in Munich at the security Conference or the meeting of chiefs of General Staffs of Russia, USA and Turkey in Antalya. The participation of both countries in the Syrian war somehow forcing them to contact each other, although as the events in the area of Raqqa, in addition to the General aims of the war with the Caliphate, the rest of the goals are very different.The same goes for Ukraine, where US demands to give the Donbass and Crimea to the Kiev regime, regarded by the Kremlin as an unacceptable.
The odds that some transaction will be concluded, it is currently there, but it is not due. Its probability depends on the position in which the administration of the trump suit for direct talks with Russia. If it still will be under the barrage of accusations in the press and it will point to weaken the controlled leak of the CIA and the NSA, then the probability of any positive outcome from talks between Putin and trump will be low and the presence of such tendencies, Russia of course must act without regard to the difficulties of trump, as expectations are unlikely diplomatic solution, it may be a strategic waste of time, which can be used on the Ukrainian and Syrian track.If trump and the part of the American establishment, which is in favor of dialogue with Russia, will strengthen by the summer of their positions, to negotiate there is always a possibility, especially if Americans recognize at last that the days of “we have all the other” leave in the past.
Boris Rozhin. Especially for Anna-News