Ukraine: a Possible scenario for an open and full-scale offensive of the Russian Federation
The plan of Russia to establish control over Ukraine through coercion of Ukraine to carry Russian conditions laid down in the Minsk agreement after it fails:
This by the way, the Kremlin was in a stalemate, Ukraine is slipping from the hands, because you are not able to reintegrate in the composition of the Trojan DNR education and LC, in such circumstances, tn DNI and LC are transformed into a suitcase without a handle, from which there is no benefit, to control Ukraine with their help it is impossible, but to spend money on their maintenance will have to continue.
Obviously this situation does not suit Russia, so Vladimir Putin will to seek a solution to this problem. One of the most likely options Russian actions in our view is the aggravation of the situation in the Donbas and the use of military force.
As shown by the results of a survey conducted by the Fund Democratic initiatives name Ilka Kucheriv jointly with the sociological service of the Razumkov Centre the Ukrainian society is not ready to compromise with Russia for the sake of freezing the conflict in the Donbass.
The most unpleasant was the proposal to hold local elections on terms that require the militants in the Donbass (71% believe such a compromise is unacceptable and only 10% is acceptable), and a full Amnesty for all militants (68% consider it unacceptable and 12% agree to such a compromise).
Finds public support for the idea of a special political and economic relations with Russia temporarily controlled territories: 60% against and 13%.
Mostly unacceptable look such arrangements as the formation of the local police, courts and prosecutors in ORDO exclusively of local representatives (59% and 13%), changes to the Constitution on granting the Russian language the status of state language (56% and 24%), providing the constitutionally special status of certain territories of Donetsk and Lugansk regions (55% and 24%), and the enactment of the neutral and non-aligned status of Ukraine (45% referred to as an unacceptable compromise, but 30% would agree with that).
The study was conducted from 16 to 20 December 2016 in all regions of Ukraine except Crimea and occupied territories of Donetsk and Lugansk regions. Sociologists were interviewed in 2018 respondents, aged 18 years. Theoretical sampling error does not exceed 2.3%. Surveys carried out in the framework of the project MATRA of the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands.
The same opinion and a significant portion of the political forces in the country.
Besides gaining oborots campaign Patriotic part of Ukrainian society to block the smuggling going on in ORDA and back, ochildren to ensure that there will be a collapse of the remnants of industry which still functioned there and revenue Pro-Russian puppet regime and the local people who worked in these enterprises. This means that will increase expenses on the maintenance of the population living on this territory and the puppet regimes of the DPR and LPR.
Obviously, such a situation does not suit Russia, so Vladimir Putin will seek a solution to this problem. One of the most probable variants of actions of the Russian Federation in our opinion is the aggravation of the situation in the Donbas and the use of military force.
In this case, the main objectives of Russia are:
The Application onto the Ukrainian army of a heavy defeat, commensurate with the defeat Ilovaisk in 2014;
The Demoralization of the Ukrainian government, the society, the main political forces and forcing them to comply with Russian conditions laid down in the Minsk agreements;
In addition an added bonus of the “defeat of Bandera” will increase the rating of the current government in Russia and the distraction of the Russian Federation population against the consequences of falling living standards, because of the economic crisis.
Let’s try to consider this scenario.
It is obvious that Russia in planning a military operation against Ukraine postaramsa to avoid plunging into full-scale war, nhe most likely task which can be supplied by the Kremlin to the armed forces will be the environment and defeat the forces of anti-terrorist operation and the overall marginalization of the APU 100-150 km from the present line of contact, then the combat will be stopped and starta conversation utsyas “Minsk-3” where Budem sounded Russian ultimatum to Ukraine.
It is obvious that a significant growth in the military potential of the APU will not allow Russia to hold its secretive forces “of the militia DND and LNR” and vacationers in 2014. Russia will have to use grouping which should consist of 80-100 thousand personnel should also be large-scale use of military aviation, and the massive missile strike.
From this it follows that Russia will have to justify their open and large-scale use of force.
In our opinion most likely will repeat the Georgian scenario of 2008, when large-scale invasion of the Russian army in this country was preceded by a sharp aggravation of the situation in conflict zones, massive attacks, terrorist attacks, sabotage, aimed to provoke a response and start “operation to enforce peace”.Possible as an option when not depending on the reaction of Ukraine will be played just a provocation in the style of Glaveckas provocation played Nazi Germany on 1 September 1939 to justify the invasion of Poland ie “the attack of Nazi-Bandera Ukraine to Russia”.
As mentioned above events can begin to develop with a sharp aggravation of the situation in the ATO zone, the rise in the number of attacks, sabotage, in addition to the introduction of misconceptions armed forces command about the intentions and directions of attack, Russia could undertake the conduct of diversionary offensives forces hybrid buildings DRN and LC as a variant of the attack on the city of Bakhmut (Artemovsk).
At the same time to snare reserves and the introduction of misconceptions armed forces command about the intentions and directions of attack, Russia as well as in 2014, can concentrate troops on the border with Kherson, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions and to simulate preparations for an attack on the Kherson, Kyiv and Kharkiv, as a variant it is also possible to practicing amphibious operations with the black sea fleet on the Ukrainian coast of the Azov sea.
In our opinion, before the beginning of the offensive of the armed forces will be a massive missile attack on the territory of Ukraine (CD “Caliber” missile ships and diesel submarine of the black sea fleet, cruise and aeroballistic missiles missile brigades armed with Iskander PTRC and TRC Point, crwb Kh-101, Kh-555, Kh-55 strategic bombers Tu-95MS and Tu-160). Targets for missile strikes will be the control points, the position of the SAM, radar, aircraft on the ground in the Eastern and Central part of the country.
After missile strikes followed by a massive air offensive VKS RF, the conquest of the air (the final suppression of air defenses, airfields and aircraft of Ukraine) and insulation the area of the ATO from the rest of Ukraine, both in the air and on the ground, to interdict the transfer of armed forces of Ukraine reserves from other parts of the country, for this purpose you have destroyed all road and rail bridges across the Dnieper river and a large railway junctions (see the map).
After performing this task, the main efforts of the VC of the Russian Federation will be concentrated on supporting the ground forces of the Russian Federation and air strikes on facilities and places of deployment/the deployment of the APU in the area ATO.
With regard to the land forces of the Russian Federation, in our opinion, is most likely the beginning of a large-scale offensive from the area of Valuyki and Millerovo, where Russia deploys a large military base, which can be reinforced by other parts of the WMD and SMD.
Russian blow from the region of Valuyki and Millerovo will allow the armed forces to defeat the rear and to cut off communication of the forces ATO and during the day to reach the line Happiness-Navidar-Severodonetsk-Lyman-Slavyansk-Raisin.
Successful and rapid onset of the Russian Federation contributes to the well-developed network of roads, lack of trained in engineering terms of defense of the APU and the lack of significant forces Mat covering the border of Ukraine with Russia between Valuyki and Millerovo.
Another direction of Russia’s attack may be the area Dokuchaevsk-Elenovka, successful and rapid onset of the Russian Federation contributes to the area (the lack of large settlements and high permeability for military equipment), the breakthrough of the defense on this front will allow the armed forces to dissect the group of the ATO forces in two and surround them by expanding after breaking an attack on the South, towards the coast of the sea of Azov and to the North to connect with the group coming from Valuyki.
For development success, along with the breakthrough of the front line of a possible landing in the rear of ATO forces RDG special forces and airborne units.
The armed forces are able to successfully carry out this operation, if the initiative is given to them. Therefore, in our opinion Ukraine in any case should not give the initiative to the enemy.
In advance to carry out mobilization to bring the troops to the highest degree of combat readiness, and in advance to implement the transfer and deployment of parts of the APU on the left-Bank part of the country.
We need to strengthen the garrison of Kharkov and the formation of powerful groupings of troops in the city of Chuguev, it is in the case of the invasion of the Russian troops from Valuyki will have to strike them in flank and rear. In addition, we need to strengthen the garrisons of the settlements strung on roads (which will attack the enemy) in the area between Valuyki and Millerovo. It will not allow the armed forces to make a throw and go within days in the rear of the ATO forces.
In addition, we need to strengthen part of the front in the area Dokuchaevsk-Elenovka to prevent its breakthrough by the enemy.
In addition, as we have previously noted, it is not necessary to wait until Russia in case of appearance of signs of preparing a massive offensive of the armed forces in the Donbas for the most effective use of aircraft of the Ukrainian air force, attack and bomber aviation, it is necessary to use for a preemptive strike at the enemy in the occupied territory ORDA, along with TRK Tochka-U, Smerch MLRS, without giving the initiative to the enemy.
The advantages of this solution is obvious, if the initiative to give the Russians a significant part of the aircraft will be destroyed in the first hours of the war, the blows of the cruise and aeroballistic missiles (krwb KH-101, KH-555, CU-s and aeroballistic missiles PTRC Iskander-M, CU Gauge) and will not inflict serious damage.
And in a sudden preemptive strike even with the losses from penetration of Russia over the occupied Donbass, su-24M, su-25 together with TRK Tochka-U, Smerch MLRS strike a devastating blow at the enemy if you work out on the fuel depot, warehouses RAV, locations of machinery, railway stations and railway nodes and bridges (the destruction of railway communication will disrupt the supply of the invaders from Russia).
With the successful outcome of such operations, the enemy will inflict such damage who picks the beginning of his offensive.
Thus the Russian aggressor will lose the initiative and the surprise effect, even before its onset, its part deployed in the occupied territory of Donbass will suffer losses from air, missile and artillery strikes of AFU, and when they did go on the offensive, they will encounter a powerful and mobilized group APU in the degree of combat readiness “FULL”.
As we previously noted in full-scale war, Ukraine has all the capabilities to inflict unacceptable damage on Russia, after which he will be forced to stop fighting.
A full-scale war with Ukraine, especially if, as we proposed initiative will be for Ukraine will turn to Russia thousand dead and maimed soldiers from the armed forces continuous stream coming in cities of the Russian Federation from Ukraine, multi-billion dollarmi consumption for the war, the strengthening of sanctions, the collapse of the economy.
In addition, will further increase the cost of RF for the maintenance and restoration of the occupied territory, as their infrastructure during the fighting intensified once again will be destroyed even more, to increase the cost of occupation will also be the seizure of new territories.
And the consequences of full-scale fighting could be catastrophic, with the destruction in combat of objects such as the Storage of radioactive waste on the territory of Donetsk state factory of chemical products, storage of benzene on the territory of Avdiivka coke plant, storage of chlorine on-site verhnekalmiusskaya filter station and Donetsk filtering station. Channel Seversky Donets-Donbass, supplying drinking water to the entire Donbass.
Lose in the course of full-scale hostilities these sites are located in and near densely populated agglomeration of Donetsk, could lead to large environmental and humanitarian the disaster and the need for the resettlement of cities and towns points-satellites (Yasynuvata, Makiivka, etc.), the costs of these activities of course will fall on the occupying power, the Russian Federation.
As for the channel Seversky Donets-Donbass, the infrastructure (the dam Chervonooskolsketh reservoirsandwhich regulates the flow of water to the Seversky Donets river in accordance with the requirements of the channel, the dam on the riverSeversky Donets, water lines, boost pumps) located on the territory controlled by Ukraine, but if fighting for the sunFrom Budut to develop a negative and have to retreat, the channel must not be captured by the enemy.
Therefore, before the APU will have the following tasks:
1. Not to miss the beginning of trainingkey full-scale offensive of the armed forces, to prevent the transition of the initiative to the enemy and not to give quickly defeat themselves;
2. Possible to delay the time fighting, to maximize their scale, apply a maxon possible onTeri aggressor in manpower and equipment;
3. To inflict maximum rulb the infrastructure of the occupied territory, to increase the costs of the aggressor’s occupation of these areas and the contents of the local’s Pro-Russian collaborators.
Addition, the article caused butthurt in Roskich Imperial-chauvinistic circles as so fomisdi want RAto srushti infrastructure, but excuse me, did you not posthavefallen in the same way? Who blew up on 18 August 1941, Dnieper?
DECLASSIFIED SOVIET DATA:
IN response to Your letter No. 19760/09-38 from 17.08.2011 to provide information to inform the next.
1.The undermining of the Dnieper was organized by the NKVD, which led to the deaths of 100 thousand people”. According to the combat report dated August 19, the headquarters of the southern front to the Supreme Commander, the undermining of the Dnieper dam was carried out by the head of Department of military engineering Directorate of the headquarters of the southern front by Colonel O. Petrowski and representative of the General staff, chief of individual research military engineering Institute (Moscow) military engineer of the 1st rank of B. Eponym [Central archive of the Ministry of defence of the Russian Federation. – F. 228. Op.754. – SPR.60. Arc.95].They acted according to the orders of the General staff of the red army, having received permission in case of emergency to blow up the dam.
To determine the exact number of victims is almost impossible, the available sources allow us to estimate only approximate the losses of the warring sides. Is known about the likely destruction of 1,500 German soldiers [Moroko V. N. Dneproges: black Aug 1941 / / Scientific works of the faculty of history of Zaporizhzhya national University. – M.: Russian University, 2010. – VIP.HHIH. – P. 200].
On the Soviet side in the flood affected area was a large part of the 200 thousand of the militia of the region infantry division (one of its regiments remained on the island Khortytsya), the NKVD regiment, two artillery regiment, and smaller units. The personnel of these parts in total has more than 20 thousand soldiers. In addition, on the night of August 18 in a broad band from Nikopol to Kherson and Kakhovka began to retreat to the left Bank two armies and a cavalry corps. This is another 12 divisions (150-170 thousand soldiers and officers).In addition to the military, from flash flood affected residents of low-lying streets of Zaporozhye, the villages on both banks of the Dnieper, refugees. The estimated number of people in the affected area – 450 thousand. Based on these data, the number of dead red army soldiers, militias and civilians on the Soviet side in historical research is estimated to be between 20-30 thousand (F. Pegado, V. Moroko) up to 75-100 thousand (A. Rummo) [Moroko V. N. Dneproges: black Aug 1941//Scientific works of the faculty of history of Zaporizhzhya national University. – M.: Russian University, 2010. – VIP.HHIH. – P. 201; Rummo A. V.Tell the people the truth // Sociological researches. – Moscow, 1990. – No.9. – P. 128]. By the way, the impetus for the study for A. Rummo was a personal motive: his grandfather was among the Soviet citizens who died then on the Khortitsa island. So, the undermining of the Dnieper were carried out by authorised staff of the red Army military engineers. The estimated number of victims by various researchers range from 20 000 people (F. Pegado, V. Moroko) up to 75-100 thousand (A. Rummo).
And how the order for dedevival of 17 November 1941, No. 428, remember? Well, we will recall:
The experience of the last months of the war showed that the German army was ill-equipped for war in winter conditions, does not have warm garments and experiencing great difficulties from the coming frost, huddled in the front line in the settlements. Arrogant to arrogance the enemy was going to spend the winter in warm houses of Moscow and Leningrad, but this prevented the actions of our troops. In the vast sectors of the front, German troops met stubborn resistance of our troops, had moved to defense and located in settlements along the roads at 20-30 km on both of them.German soldiers tend to live in cities, in towns, in villages, in peasant huts, sheds, to the baths near the front, and the headquarters of the German units are located in larger towns and cities, hiding in the basement, using them as cover from our aircraft and artillery. The Soviet population these items are usually evicted and thrown out of the German invaders.
To deprive the German army of the opportunity to stay in villages and towns to expel the German invaders from all settlements in the cold in the field, to smoke them out of all rooms and warm shelters and forced to freeze under the open sky – this is the urgent task, the solution of which depends largely on the acceleration of the defeat of the enemy and the expansion of his army.
The Supreme command ORDERS:
1. To destroy and burn down all settlements in the rear of German troops at a distance of 40-60 km in depth from the front edge and 20-30 km to the right and left of the road.
For the destruction of settlements in the radius to leave immediately aircraft, extensive use of artillery and mortar fire, the team of scouts, skiers and guerrilla sabotage groups, equipped with Molotov cocktails, grenades and blasting means.
2. In each shelf to create a team of hunters for 20-30 people each for the explosion and burning of settlements, which are the enemy troops. In teams of hunters to choose the most brave and strong in the political-moral attitude of the fighters, commanders and political instructors, thoroughly explaining them the objectives and the importance of this event for the defeat of the German army. Outstanding brave courageous action for the destruction of settlements in which German troops are located, to submit to the government the award.
3.Forced withdrawal of our troops in the other sites or to withdraw from a Soviet population and necessarily destroy all, without exception, the settlements, so that the enemy could not use them. Primarily for this purpose to use a dedicated in the shelves of the team of hunters.
4. Military Councils of fronts and separate armies systematically verify the tasks performed by the destruction of settlements in the above radius from the front line. The rate of every 3 days separate summary to convey how many settlements destroyed in the last days and what means to achieve these results.
The Supreme command