The advance of the Caliphate on Deraa | Colonel Cassad



Overview material on the advance of the Caliphate in southern Syria.

In the night of Monday, January 20, 2017, the militants “Jaish Khalid bin Walid”, which is considered a branch of Terror grouping “Islamic state” (ISIS, prohibited in Russia) suddenly attacked their rivals from the jihadist Alliance “Hayat Tahrir al-sham” led by the terrorists of “jabhat al Fatah ash-sham” (DFS, banned in Russia) in the South-West province of Deraa.

As a result of massive missile and artillery strike on the positions of Islamists from DFS and allied battalions “Free Syrian army” (FSA) late at night, the militants were able to capture most of the cities of Sachems al-Julan (al-Golan) and G (Tasil). In the morning under the control of the IG has completely passed these two towns and two villages – Adwan and Gilan (Jellen).

In the afternoon of the 20th “Islamic state” went on the offensive, and repulsed the Alliance “Hayat Tahrir al-sham” in the village of Kafr Tamir, al-ash’ari, and the village of Heit (Hite) and Sasun most of the Jordanian border. By evening it appeared that the militants just a day captured 2 cities, 6 villages, and one major (al-Jumaa), thereby effectively doubling the territories under their control in the South-West of the province.

Armed groups “Hayat Tahrir al-sham” suffered serious losses. Confirmed losses 20 people dead, number of injured people exceeded 60. In addition to a large number of destroyed equipment is militants went to a serviceable one tank, one BMP, a few pickups and a large quantity of ammunition. Now the IG position only 15 km West of Deraa.

Despite the heavy defeat the militants DFS tried to organize another assault on the district of al-Manshia in the administrative center of the province. The positions of government troops were targeted by a car bomb, but he was destroyed at a relatively safe distance. Immediately after a powerful explosion ensued intense fighting along the frontline in the al-Manshia. The Islamists attacked until the evening three times, but with air support, all their attacks were repulsed. – (the link has a video)

PS. From myself I will add:

1. In 2016, this area already, there were battles between the Caliphate and green, which continued with varying success. “Black” enjoyed the fragmentation of “green” and their diversion to the Syrian army and tried to expand the controlled territory to the South of the province. After the defeat of the SAA in Sheikh Miskin, “green” was able at the time to unite and strike a sensitive counterattacks “black”, then from the second half of 2016, the year followed by stabilization of the front.

2. The current aggravation is obviously associated with the fact that “green” tried to break the here in 2015-2016, the status quo, attacked SAA in Deraa, releasing a significant chunk of urban neighborhoods. Black, in turn, took advantage of the fact that “green” threw their main forces on the Syrian army and after secretive preparations to attack, struck a sudden blow, which caught green by surprise.In the end, at the moment the caliphate extracted the greatest profit from misplaced military activity of “green” who do not have enough forces to simultaneously attack the SAA and fight off the advance of the Caliphate.

Overall, the fighting in the province of Deraa amply illustrate the problems of the tripartite war, when each side is forced to consider the actions of the other two.

What are the prospects of the parties?

1. SAA is committed to maintaining the status quo, since from the point of view of the overall strategy of the Syrian war front Deraa is secondary and it is unlikely this will drive large reserves to significantly change the front line.

2. The SAA and Co will strive to expand the zone of control in Deraa and the counteroffensive against the Caliphate with the return of lost. The supply of fighters and weapons from the territory of Jordan needs to help them.

3. The Caliphate will seek to expand the controlled territory and capture new trophies that will allow you to continue to conduct active operations against the “green”.

In the end, it will be a reallocation of zones in the province of Deraa without any chance to be in full control of all its territory due to the insufficient number of forces from both the parties to the conflict.

Stauffenberg was Right!

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