On the situation in the Donbass | Colonel Cassad

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Thesis about the current situation in the Donbass.

1. From a military point of view, the situation remains the same, with a General decline in the number of attacks and clashes, as such, they do not stop. And here an interesting paradox – on the one hand everything looks like a normal local escalation that has happened more than once, but friends in the military structures DND and LNR say that it doesn’t end, the probability of escalation remains and on both sides there is an accumulation of forces at the front line, as well as various preparatory and mobilization activities in frontline areas. Of course.it is worsened moods in the spirit of “the ongoing ping-pong” is already so sick, it would be better if it has somehow resolved the “somehow” usually refers to the onset of the APU and counter-counteroffensive action corps. But while the front continues to remain in the position condition and whether a different way from other periods of escalation, as yet unknown, as both sides would prefer to transfer the right to launch an offensive opponents.

2. From a political point of view, the situation as it develops without substantial change. USA on what is happening reacted sluggishly. Pence has said that the United States is concerned about the situation in the Donbass, but directly to accuse of the Republic and the Russian Federation did not. The administration and the White House and all went into denial, saying that she had little information about what is actually happening in the Donbass, even though the American intelligence Global Hawk the last few months pretty regularly fly over Ukraine.In response to a passive stance of the current administration, the opposition in the Senate and Congress have decided to remind myself, saying that Russia is to blame and it is urgent to impose new sanctions. In General, here, too, without any changes.

In Moscow and Donetsk once again outlined the inertia of the political course in the Donbass, by repeating stretching from 2014 abstracts about the lack of alternatives Minsk (which is uncontested impossible) and internal conflict (what Kiev and Washington of course does not recognize). For the same reasons Zakharchenko once again publicly stated that while there is the Minsk format, merge the DNI and LC will not happen. As previously stated http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3222233.html RF will not do any significant change in its policy to negotiate with trump on Syria and Ukraine, maintaining the existing status quo regardless of the intensity of the shelling. The more nothing will change dependent on the Russian Federation government of the DNI and LC. As can be seen from the reaction of the White House, the administration trump, so prefers to wait for the results of negotiations, after which events and begin to evolve in one direction or another, depending on the presence/absence of the agreements. I believe that the answer to the question, in what scenario will the development of events, we find out this spring.But it appears that in any case they will have to develop outside of the context of the Minsk agreements.

3. In Ukraine of course do not want to wait for agreement on Ukraine without her trying to hook into this process. But as other methods, in addition to the military junta have not, it is the growth of military tension and creates a threat of intensified fighting.Against this background, exacerbated by internal contradictions within the Ukrainian political elite, part of which is constantly trying to offer myself the new White House administration as an “effective replacement” for Poroshenko, which is in the administration of the tramp of course not happy because of the participation of Poroshenko in the election campaign of Clinton in the role of porters compromising on trump.The activity of Tymoshenko, who pitfals to catch trump the toilet and its subsequent calls for the introduction of martial law, signaled the preparation for early elections, where the pursuit of votes of the radicals, is one of the keys to success. Continuing and intense activity Saakashvili, who is not treat hope to return the favor of owners, who under Obama strongly cooled to batono Mishiko. Saakashvili keeps reminding that he’s always had good relations with Republicans and he is much better able to fight corruption in Ukraine than Poroshenko.Immediately perked up and various fascist and semi-fascist fringe that just sat on the ridge of “martial law”, “March battalions on Kiev”, “a third Maidan Nazis and deceived investors”.

4. Pro-Russian forces there is of course no, it’s fighting spiders and the spiders in the Bank, wanting to draw the attention of the master and to the label to reign or at least the right to participate in a possible division of power and ownership in the change of the regime Poroshenko. Russia put special no one – Opposition bloc, moreover, that consists of former regionals (which in itself speaks volumes), and is in the process of the potential of fragmentation between the interested oligarchs. “The Ukrainian choice” Medvedchuk and in more prosperous times belonged to the political fringe.Communist parties and socialists (which could be put on the example of Moldova) in the legal political field no. The part of Deputy factions and groups controlled by Kolomoisky and they are guided on Washington and Brussels. The only benefit from all this bickering, it’s the weakening of the power of the junta and to increase the probability of the prospect of freezing the conflict.

5. Overall, if the United States and the Russian Federation will avoid serious steps to begin direct talks about the fate of Syria and Ukraine, but actions dependent regimes in Kiev and Donetsk/Lugansk are fundamentally different. If Zakharchenko and Carpentry, the continuation of the current uncertain state means further following in the footsteps of Russian policy and the preservation of their personal power (which largely guarantee their signatures under the Minsk agreements), for Poroshenko, the fundamental situation is different, since the indeterminate state without an active war, exacerbating political and socio-economic contradictions, directly threatening the power and property Poroshenko in Kiev can not adapt to the new administration to get the desired guarantees further support of Poroshenko’s regime.To prove its usefulness, Poroshenko need limited war (intense enough to attract the attention of the United States) to guarantee a continued stay in power from the White House and thereby to delay the danger of early elections, the collapse of the existing coalition and active socio-economic protests that straddle political demagogues and radicals. In fact, this conflict and will encourage Kiev to continue their attempts to influence the situation by military means.

In the end, to seriously change the existing trends at this stage would require the collapse of the APU or unlikely socio-economic explosion in the Ukraine. Otherwise, the US and Russia will adhere to the wait-and-see strategy.

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