There was quite a remarkable report focuses on the updated hybrid strategy of Iran in the Syrian war. This topic is quite narrowly covered in the media, and interested Americans to demonize Iran itself is quite clear, given the fact that the new White House administration has already identified Iran among the main opponents of the US in the region. However, the report has many interesting points.
The main points of the report.
At this stage, Iran continues to convert its armed forces to be able to conduct a proxy war in the distance of hundreds of miles from its borders. This opportunity includes a very few States and it would fundamentally change the balance of power in the region. The Iranian leadership does not intend to refuse from sending its armed forces into Syria to continue to enhance their capabilities for capacity development projection of its military power in the region.
For the past 15 months, Iran has deployed thousands of its soldiers in Syria who played a major role in the capture of Aleppo in December 2016, which was the main stronghold of the Syrian rebels. Iran preoriented its forces from a traditional defensive operations in an effective expeditionary force that can conduct a series of operations abroad departing from the concepts adopted after the Iran-Iraq war. The current experience can be effectively extended to other countries in the region. It would be a mistake to think that the Iran in the development of its strategy will be limited to actions within the borders of Syria. In the future, Syria will become Iran a strategic hub, based on which it will to expand its influence in the middle East and to ensure continued operations.
Weekly loss of Iranian forces – October 2015 – December 2016.
These changes reflect a more aggressive Iranian policy in the region. The Iranian leadership believes that asymmetric capabilities to counter the US and Israel currently insufficient to conduct traditional military operations now overcome significant institutional challenges to overcome this gap in the field of military capabilities. Campaign in Aleppo reflects the success of the new approach of Iran to conduct war.Iranian land forces have increased the possibility of Iran to conduct a proxy war in Syria and played an important role in the success of the Syrian army in the battles for the city. Iranian expeditionary force, despite losses, have been effectively cooperating on the battlefield with their foreign partners. In this coming war became a kind of Academy for the education of a new generation of Iranian political and military leaders who played an important role in the development of Iranian military doctrine and the development of related institutions.Embedding elements of a hybrid Iranian influence in the institutions of government and armed formations on the territory of other countries, is dramatically more difficult to counter these influences and roll back to the pre-war balance of power.
Continuous development by Iran of its hybrid models of war will lead to further expand its influence in the middle East. Iran does not have the opportunity to achieve victory in the Syrian war or to defeat ISIS, but Iran in addition to these goals, there are other plans. The tactics and strategy of actions that Iran fulfills in the course of the Syrian war in the future will be to promote the actions of the Iranian forces operating in Iraq and Lebanon, where hybrid vigor Iran will act in conjunction with local groups.This will allow Iran to expand its influence in the middle East, but will also allow Iran to more effectively oppose the United States, Israel and their allies, if the need arises, including using its influence and agents in other countries. The military presence of Iran in Syria and to ensure their logistics and provide Iran with high autonomy in Syrian Affairs and guarantee against excessive influence of the Syrian government and Russian partners.Iran is not happy with a situation when he is forced to carry the heavy burden of war on land, but it is necessary to pay for expanding its influence, making the regime in Damascus, in a sense, dependent on Tehran and at the same time allows you not to give full control over military operations in Syria, the Russian military.
The loss of structure of the Iranian forces – October 2015 – January 2017
The volume of Iranian participation in the Syrian war guarantees that Iran will remain a key player in the region, regardless of any biases that are possible in the official position of Russia on Iran. Russia supported the holding of Iran’s military campaign in Syria, as it was not ready to use thousands of its soldiers, which could provide Iran supports the formation, as did Iran in such a hybrid format war is virtually irreplaceable.US attempts to influence the development of Iranian influence through the position of Russia, is unlikely to yield a major effect, as well as attempts to convince Russia to abandon cooperation with Iran. Russia will be pragmatic and prefer the Iranian military outsourcing, to avoid having to conduct their own full-fledged ground operation. In this regard, any attempts to undermine Iranian influence, through the peace with Russia and normalizing relations with it, will expect to fail.
In Iran, these actions have a high internal support and internal discussions related to the implementation of this strategy specific disputes did not cause. The improvement of the economic situation associated with the easing of us sanctions, expanding the possibility of Iran’s development of its strategy and increase its potential power logistics, the underlying distribution of hybrid military influence on countries in the region.Victory in the Mosul area is likely to allow Iran to divert part of their “hybrid forces” from Iraq to Syria, as well as strengthen support, “Hezbollah”, which extends its influence in the Levant.
The actions of the Iranian forces in Aleppo (mostly front to the South and South-West of Aleppo)
The main conclusion of the events. For the first time in the history of the Islamic Republic of Iran, its leadership is making serious efforts for the development of their traditional power projection for active influence on the military-political processes in the region that alters the strategic balance in the middle East. As the proposed measures, the American analysts refuse to offer a nuclear deal with Iran and strengthen sanctions against the military structures involved in the implementation of high-performance elements of the Iranian hybrid strategy.