As is obvious, in our country (and not only here) there are serious expectations related to the correction of the US foreign policy in the trump. In a particularly pink dreams is expressed in the projections due to the fact that all sanctions will be lifted, the Cold war between the US and Russia will end, the degree of Russophobia in the West and anti-Americanism in Russia will decline, the war in Ukraine and Syria will decline, and the United States and the Russian Federation jointly with the Russian Federation will finish the Caliphate. So to say the world of milk and honey, which in my opinion will remain in my dreams.
The same applies to “black forecasts,” due to the fact that “trump will be even worse than Obama” and will unleash a world war, which was not allowed to untie Clinton and you didn’t want to unleash Obama, is carried out from the point of view of the hawks fairly half-hearted policy, the results of which he was left with nothing. The negative scenario to continue the policy of Obama’s left agenda with Clinton.
In my opinion, trump the fact that he was less committed to the ideological dogma of the neocons and neoliberals, much more prone to political bargaining and is willing to go to compromise even with those who do not like him, if it’s in his best interest. It would be naive to expect that such person will do, Russian gifts, making unilateral concessions. For trump, the issues of sanctions, Ukraine and Syria, it is a question of trade are not valuable assets, in which case it can be exchanged if they will be offered something of equal value. Pat on the back and a variety of flattery, it is unlikely to impress.Trump and his team understand that the days of unconditional US hegemony fading and keep the old methods no longer works (they either do not work or lead to scenarios fraught with war with Russia and China), therefore, the change of ideological Messianic politics Obama-Clinton is more pragmatic and cynical methodology, where USA will strive to maintain its rule through various transactions with regional powers, which want to expand their influence in places where there is weakening of the United States.In this regard, the most important question – who will be chosen for the role of the main opponent of hegemony and a major threat to the current system of world order. North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela or the Philippines the same when Duterte, is unlikely to become established owing to their limited possibilities. In the middle East, the main problem was and still is Iran (which is likely to feel the changes in American politics), and the Caliphate, which, anyway, must be destroyed. A fundamental choice will be made against Russia and China.If relations with China when trump will escalate, it is likely that we will see a partial, but not complete, normalization of relations, which in the case of the agreements on Ukraine and Syria could lead to the lifting of some sanctions, the consent to freeze the Ukrainian conflict, the reduction of military contingents of the US and Russia on the Western border and the US refusal to overthrow Assad in Syria. This will put the conflict in a slow direction (as Russia’s actions one way or another undermine the hegemony of the United States and cause a clash of interests), but will not cancel it.
What in fact would like Russia from trump?
1. Consent to restructuring of Ukraine with a full reboot-existing authorities with the further decentralization of the country where the LDNR would be the tool of influence of Russia on the amorphous formation.
2. The actual recognition of the annexation of Crimea to Russia.
3. The legal recognition of the non-aligned status of Ukraine and a full guarantee of the Russian-speaking population on its territory.
4. The withdrawal of American troops from the Baltic States and Poland in exchange for a reduced contingent of the Russian army in the West.
5. The rejection of the project implementation with the deployment of ABM systems in Eastern Europe. The signing of new contracts in the field of missile defense and nuclear arms control. The cessation of the arms race.
6. Partial or complete lifting of sanctions and counter-sanctions against individuals, government agencies and various enterprises.
7. The refusal of the US to overthrow Bashar al-Assad and the cessation of their support structures associated with “al-Qaeda” + joint operations against the Caliphate.
8. The consent of the United States that some former Soviet republics are in the sphere of influence of the Russian Federation, that is, in fact, implemented the agreement on the division of spheres of influence.
The question here lies in the fact that Russia can offer in exchange for future bargaining. United States a number of things may sell these items, but free concessions will not be here.
In case the bidder does not work out, and with the trump we can see the continuation of a half-hearted policy, when trump positions himself as a tough and uncompromising negotiator will maintain sanctions and will continue funding for the wars in Ukraine and Syria, which essentially extends the current Cold war for 4-8 years.It appears that in practice, we see a incomplete option when some optimistic expectations associated with the presidency, trump will be justified, but the overall relationship between the United States and Russia will continue to develop in antagonistic manner, the more it determines the position in assessing the prospects of these relations in the American military-political establishment.
I believe that in the next 2-3 months after the inauguration of the trump, will host a series of official meetings, where, after probing negotiating positions, will start real trade associated with the normalization of relations. If there is progress, then of course it would be a new discharge. If there will be no progress and the situation will remain the same as it is now or will be degraded, the trump will quickly lose their popularity in Russia. In fact, it’s still a pig in a poke, around which have accumulated a large pile of various expectations.