The conclusion of the campaign of 2016.
The truce is what is observed only partially – on a number of fronts, where fighting was to cease, they nevertheless continued, in particular in Hama and Eastern ghouta. However, there is a decrease in the intensity of the fighting in Aleppo and in Latakia. In General, it was unlikely to shoot everywhere at once cease, given a sufficiently abstract control of the Turks over all conglomerate groups of the “moderate opposition”, so there need to wait and see how fragmented will the truce. Yet it is very limited.
Of the Russian Federation submitted to the UN security Council resolution in support of the Russian-Turkish-Iranian agreement on Syria. The US and the EU will be in a very uncomfortable position. If you take the Russian resolution, is to recognize that questions of war and peace in the region can be solved at all without the US and the EU. If to impose on the veto resolution, it will look like attempts to prevent peace in Syria that destroys peacekeeping hypocritical rhetoric of the US and EU. Both options contain for the United States, France and Britain certain costs, what is the strategic consequence of the agreements between Russia, Turkey and Iran.
It is also worth noting that Egypt has expressed a desire to join the agreements of Russia, Turkey and Iran and to participate in the normalization of the situation in Syria. In fact, it is possible to observe how the situation around Russia and Iran, the coalition of support for Syria, has attracted at first Erdogan, then the Egyptian regime and the military. Russian-Iranian coalition is thus reaping the fruits of hard work in 2015-2016. Russia seriously strengthened its positions in the middle East, and Iran received a certain advantage in its permanent conflict with Saudi Arabia.
Turkey has clarified its position on the future of Syria and the Kurds. The Turks are ready to accept the fact that Kurds participated in the negotiations, but only if their armed forces lay down their arms, abandon the support of the Kurdish workers ‘ Party and from the ideas associated with the destruction of the territorial integrity of Syria. In this case, the Turks are willing to agree that the Kurds will get increased representation in the government of postwar Syria.It is more common wishes that reflect the activity of Russia and Iran with Turkey, in terms of explanation, without an adequate solution to the Kurdish issue, and stability in Syria is not in sight. Then the question is, will the Kurds be satisfied with a modest extension of their rights as part of a renewed Syria, or they will continue to feed the promise that they feed US. Turkey also stated that if the Kurds refuse to disarm, then war with them will continue.
Russia and Iran are of course interested in the fact that Turks and Kurds found a semblance of a common language, because their war seriously hampered Russian-the Iranian and American plans, creating the effect of uncertainty of the events taking place in Northern Syria.
In General, if you sum up per year, that Russia and Iran has made in Syria, serious progress, the Central of which was the liberation of Aleppo and pulling Turkey from the camp of the enemies of Syria to the camp of the companions of the allies of Syria.
Embarrassing failure under the Tabqa and Palmyra, of course caused considerable damage to the image of Syria and Russia, but in General, they can experienced in that time, all the strategic advantages left for Russia and Iran. The position of Assad have become more stable, the threat of military defeat were eliminated. The talks in Astana are held from a position of strength, much more favorable to Assad’s conditions than it was a year ago, when militants put forward unrealistic demands. Russia and Iran have done a lot to Turkey and affiliated militants have realized that the power to overthrow Assad will not leave just because he leaves.
The plans of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United States for 2016-the year has failed. “Green” has lost the “mother of all battles” and lost’s biggest city, which they controlled since 2012. They lost several large enclaves near Damascus, failed offensive in Hama, Countary in Latakia. The most spectacular operational success – a breakthrough in Rampage eventually turned bloody defeat.American plans associated with the creation of Syrian Kurdistan was properly cropped in a timely involvement of erdoğan to this issue that has ruined the US plans to join Kurdish areas in the North of the country. Trying to step up operations in southern Syria, ended in shameful defeat, the CIA trained the “New Syrian Army” from the Caliphate under Abu-Kemal, and the survivors fled back to Jordan.That is, if you take the strategic plans of the parties for 2016 year, Russia and Iran have achieved their goals, Erdogan has achieved partial success (Assad’s overthrow failed, but the Kurds and prevented the Americans planted a pig), and the United States, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, campaign 2016, the year in Syria have lost. The UN’s role in the Syrian settlement was near zero, reflecting the overall decrease of the influence of the organization on a real military-political processes in the region.
From an operational point of view, Syria now will have the opportunity to focus on key areas where the fighting will continue and continue the liberation of the country from militants, improving positions for the forthcoming negotiations, and in that case, if the negotiations are once again foiled and we will see a new round of war against “the green”, where the main objectives will be Idlib and Eastern ghouta, as well as Rastanski boiler.If the truce with the “green” will actually be respected, then we are likely to see active operations of the SAA and its allies against the Caliphate – Yarmouk, near Palmyra (followed by a March to Deir-ez-Zor) and probably in the area Itree, with the aim of Raqqa.
The strategic initiative is now fully owned by the SAA and a number of options for further operations in the 2017 campaigns of the year, is very large.
However, it should be noted that the role of external support for Syria, continues to increase. 5 of the most difficult years of civil war and foreign intervention, very not easy for the Syrian army and the Syrian people. It is seen that there is a serious war weariness, resource mobilization exhausted, the economy is partially destroyed, the part of the country lies in ruins. But circumstance demand that Syria was held, for it is this persistence in the end will win your freedom, independence and the preservation of the old boundaries with its allies.Assad is the heart of this system, which to bend, crumble, creak, but not broken, despite the enormous pressure on Syria from the side of the powerful. The challenge Assad to lead Syria into a peaceful Harbor in such a way that it remained a secular, multinational and integrity of the country, which has serious allies and guarantors of its survival. Assad is close enough to this goal.After a transition period he probably had to leave (to ensure that the final process of inter-Syrian settlement), but thanks to his wrestling, he can do it on their own terms, choosing a replacement that will be adequate to the efforts and results of the Syrian war.2016-the year was very significant for Assad – almost all who demanded his departure was gone and he was left, a fact, proving that he’s not a typical middle Eastern autocrat, but rather a competent leader and diplomat who was able to stand in the fight against external and internal enemies, to find allies and to lead the country so that even his enemies were forced to admit that just because its clean does not work.
For Russia, the year Syrian war has turned the whole successful, especially against the background of the failures of American foreign policy. Of course, not without unfortunate catastrophes and losses, and the bitterness of defeat we also hooked, but this is war, and war without loss does not happen. Not loss or failure determine the grade for participation in the war, and its outcome. These results for 2016 year is generally positive for Russia – has achieved significant diplomatic success, made the biggest strategic success since the war began, compared to 2015 year, Russia’s position in Syria and the middle East is obviously stronger.What began as the “Syrian adventure,” the lament “why did we get into a new Afghanistan”, is now firmly recognized as a competent political-military operation conducted by limited forces, which allowed Russia expanding the space of confrontation with the United States to withdraw from the inertial scenario of the Ukrainian deadlock. It largely succeeded, though there probably won battle, not war. Ahead of complex negotiations with trump and adaptation to the changes of the current world order. And indeed the war in Syria will obviously continue. But it is quite solved problem.
The position of the Caliphate in Syria in 2016, the year was severely weakened, despite the victory at Tabqa, Palmyra and al-Bab, the strategic environment for blacks continued to deteriorate – SAA accumulates forces for offensive operations in Eastern HOMS and the return of Palmyra, the Kurds and the Americans advancing from the West to raqqa, the FSA and the Turks are preparing to storm al-Baba. The implementation of the truce between the SAA and the SAA will lead to the fact, that they both will be able to more actively to fight the Caliphate that promises new challenges for the “black”.In General, despite their local victory, the Caliphate continues to reap the rewards of a failed Grand strategy, when announcing to as many people as possible the war, the Caliphate today, with labour fighting on multiple fronts, which he himself had produced. Resources was decoratory ambitions. However, campaign 2016, the year once again demonstrated that the phenomenon of the Caliphate continue to underestimate the problem of the Genesis of this quasi-state based on terrorist methods of management, require further study.Still the situation, even when efforts (albeit limited) of the armed forces of the United States, Russia, Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran aimed at destroying the Caliphate does not give the full result, reflect the inner strength of this terrorist state education, which must be destroyed in order to prevent more serious problems. Of course, the war will not stop after you have taken al-Bab, raqqa, Palmyra, Mosul and other cities, holds the Caliphate.But with the destruction of the state of the kernel of this inhuman system, will put a serious block in the way of realization of the state aspirations on the part of adherents of the radical political Islam that threatens not only the middle Eastern autocracies, but also Great powers.
It is worth noting that in 2016, the year the information war in Syria has reached its climax – the number of different ballot box stuffing, falsification of information provocations and various attempts of manipulation of consciousness has increased significantly. The manifestation of external players behind the militants, identified and communications of the world’s largest media supporting various jihadist groups in Syria.The symbol of this degenerate Western media was a German journalist Julian turnip, which became the best example of loss of objectivity and connection with reality, which is very common manifested during the final stages of the battle for Aleppo, when the media of the “democratic peace”, supported the Syrian branch of “al-Qaeda” wishing him success in battles with Assad’s troops. When this did not happen, the Western media virtually ceased to cover the actual fighting and focused on making a tearful images of bombed-out hospitals, some of which were created not even in Syria.But it did not help the rebels, so that the information war in Syria for the West as well in 2016, the year was not very successful.
The war in Syria is the largest war of the 21st century and we can clearly see how great the influence of this war on international politics. This local war, gradually acquired the character of a global confrontation between blocs of States and in a few years changed for decades they have been decomposed in the middle East. Now, it already has world-historic significance and its outcome, one way or another, will play a huge role in shaping the post-Washington world order. Syria also possible to wish to 2017-th year was a year when will be laid on the real, not declarative the road to peace, which is badly needed by this poor country has been a victim of attempts to force democracy and radical Islam.