The December truce | Colonel Cassad

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Announced that according to the agreement between Russia and Turkey, from 29 December in Syria will begin another truce.


29 December in Syria will be stopped fighting. This agreement came to Moscow and Ankara, developed a comprehensive plan for a ceasefire of all parties in the conflict. The truce was to take effect from 0 hours local time.
 

The armistice agreement does not cover terrorist organizations, reports “Interfax”. If the armistice agreement to act, the Syrian government and opposition begin negotiations. The place of negotiation of the selected Bank. The spread of the ceasefire on the entire territory of Syria should be followed by a truce deal in Eastern districts of Aleppo and the subsequent evacuation of the population and opposition fighters. Russian-Turkish reconciliation plan should cover all areas of Syria where fighting between opposition groups and government forces.
https://www.vesti.ru/doc.html?id=2838014 – zincIn fact, we see that after situational deals on Syria with the US, Russia decided to sign a similar deal with Turkey.

It is necessary to understand the following:

1. Like the US, Turkey controls only part of groups, so a full ceasefire will not as full of the armistice necessary agreements with the United States, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The reference to “the whole territory of Syria,” reflects wishful thinking rather than real possibilities of the parties, as Turkey could not guarantee that militants tied to Saudi Arabia and Qatar to cease fire.

2. Turkey controls the part of factions in Idlib, Latakia and North of Aleppo. So the ceasefire is possible in these provinces, as Turkey has already shown that it can control its fighters, when not let them attack from the North to Aleppo.

3. Thus, there is a serious conflict – in accordance with the agreements of Russia, Turkey and Iran, the common enemy, declared a Caliphate and “An-Nusra”. If the Caliphate is all clear to him the war was like and will go with “An-Nusra” is more complicated, as it has a significant position to the West of Aleppo and in the Idlib and many groups consider “An-Nusra” as the main jihadist organization (in addition to the Caliphate) and are often in subordinate operational command structures of “al-Nusra”. Will the fighters under the control of Turkey to fight with the “An-Nusra” and what will they do if the SAA start to say offensive in Khan tuman, it is not entirely clear.

4. US in this transaction is missing completely, Moscow probably in a hurry to register this agreement with the Turks before the start of direct talks with trump to show that in Syrian Affairs can do without US and at the same time stronger to bind Turkey to the Russian-Iranian coalition, using the degradation of American-Turkish relations after the failed coup.

5. Overall, it appears that a full ceasefire would not be in the best case will be the same as with the deal between the United States and the Russian Federation in February 2016 – on the part of the fronts of the fighting will subside and the parties will be able to use the released energy for operations on other fronts – SAA against the Caliphate and “Al-Nusra”, the Turks against the Caliphate and Kurds.Without agreements with other sponsors of the insurgents, lasting peace will not, although separate negotiations part of the militants with Assad, obviously seriously undermine the efforts of the external sponsors of the militants on forming a United front against Assad – in this regard, a separate deal with the Turks does not promise the world, but undermine long-term US strategy to prolong the civil war in Syria.

6. On possible talks between Assad and Pro-Turkish militants, Assad apparently would operate from a position of strength, as the defeat of the militants in the battle for Aleppo has seriously swung the strategic balance in favor of the legitimate Syrian government that Erdogan can not be ignored. In my opinion, the prospects of the talks on the Syrian settlement will largely depend on whether Russia and Iran to ensure the normalization of relations between Damascus and Ankara, which is complicated by a deep personal hatred of Assad and Erdogan.

The fighting in Syria will cease from December 29

29 December in Syria will be stopped fighting. This agreement came to Moscow and Ankara, developed a comprehensive plan for a ceasefire of all parties in the conflict. The truce was to take effect from 0 hours local time.

The armistice agreement does not cover terrorist organizations, reports “Interfax”. If the armistice agreement to act, the Syrian government and opposition begin negotiations. The place of negotiation of the selected Bank. The spread of the ceasefire on the entire territory of Syria should be followed by a truce deal in Eastern districts of Aleppo and the subsequent evacuation of the population and opposition fighters.

Russian-Turkish reconciliation plan should cover all areas of Syria where fighting between opposition groups and government forces.

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