The Caliphate will be defeated by the end of 2018. Maybe… | Colonel Cassad


A recurring theme in the comments of questions, when in the foreseeable future the war will end with the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq.

Lieutenant General U.S. army Stephen Townsend, who heads the joint command of coalition forces in Iraq, spoke on the topic of long-term war against the Caliphate. It is worth Recalling that, initially, Townsend was a very optimistic look at the assault on Mosul, but after the first failure, began to adjust their forecasts, saying that 2 weeks to take Mosul will not work. When these deadlines have passed, he declared that the Caliphate was inventive enemy and easily take the city will not work, and in early December, and even stated on the underestimation of the Caliphate and that the storm could take months.

Interesting facts:

1. According to Townsend, the defeat of the Islamic state possible until the end of 2018, which involves the capture of Mosul, Raqqa and the defeat of the main forces of the Caliphate in less important centres, while the war in the desert areas of Syria and Iraq will continue. In 2017, the last year of the war against the “blacks” should not be expected.

2. The enemy according to Townsend is dangerous and cruel. Mentioned episodes when the militants carried to the street children and raise them up, that planes and drones could see that the object is children and will have to bomb human shields. Given the fact that civilian casualties is still high, Americans, it does not always stop. The UN is clear about these episodes is silent in a rag.

3. U.S. wary of legalization Shiite militia of Iraq, which is accused of committing war crimes against Sunnis. But nothing to do with it apparently will not, because the Shiite militia controlled by Iran and now with him not willing to fight, considering their active work in Iraq’s General Soleimani, has great connections in the Iraqi government.

4. United States partially take responsibility for what is happening in Iraq, because according to Townsend, they are in Iraq to help, not to lead. However, the Iraqi army has problems, but blame the Iraqis themselves and the US and.

5. USA shocked the mass executions and murders on the territory of the Caliphate, but to do virtually nothing, they say it is hard to bomb the bulldozers that crush of people or butchers, who cut and burned. Then Yes, bomb the places of the executions, is still a problem – in addition to the executioners and executed, and even the spectators to cover.

6. The storming of Mosul on the one hand continues by inertia, in fact, suspended in some parts of the losses have reached 30% of the personnel. Large losses in the material, 2 months spent fighting the accumulated reserves of ammunition for artillery, which requires time for their completion.

7. Townsend contends that the Americans offered to Iraqi generals to suspend the assault to allow the upcoming part, but the Iraqis insisted on continuing the assault in the same operational group that has led to pointless attempts to break through the defense of the Caliphate in the Eastern neighborhoods of Mosul, while two Iraqi mech.division bogged down South of the city and could not help the attackers.

8. Currently actively bringing in reinforcements under Mosul (part of the 101st airborne division arrive in Mosul under + deposits for Iraqis), in the field repair shops hard at work on the damaged equipment, plus is the distillation of new technology through Basra and Baghdad.

9. The fighting in the city, USA, the Iraqi army is not trained and according to Townsend, the Iraqis are learning to fight in the city during the storm. Actually, this explains a lot concerning the losses and the results of the storm. In fact, poorly trained for this type of battle Iraqi part, faced with those who like the war dog ate it. The result can be seen in many photos and videos. In General, in Iraq found their Grachev.

10. The most dangerous weapon of the Caliphate, the Americans believe Shahid-mobiles and their various bonemedaily, which cause large losses of the attackers. Universal tactics to combat them today is not the impact of the underestimation of this type of weapon in previous phases of the war, when from the trite means of terror, Shahid-mobiles (and later Shahid-BMP, Shahid-Shahid and tanks-bulldozers), became effective tactical way to influence the tide of battle at the tactical level.

11. Traditionally, Townsend praised the Peshmerga for training and competent mobilization activities, the regime of Barzani have long been assigned to Mr. “beloved wife”. Against the Shiite militia, he is less optimistic – Americans do not want the growing influence of Iran in Iraqi Affairs, but are forced to use the Shiite militia in their plans, because to replace them especially there is nobody. Shiite militia fighting openly, but a lot of it. – zinc (revelation Townsend English)

PS. Overall, the Americans have already resigned to the fact that blitzkrieg in Mosul and turned Iraq war is a long time. About the optimistic forecast of the Pentagon, according to which the Mosul and Rakka, was to be taken in 2016-m to year, now do not remember. Specific deadlines also prefer not to put the assault on Raqqa may possibly begin in the spring of 2017. The assault on Mosul as obvious drag on for several months. Amid the rapid collapse of the defense of militants in Aleppo, the suffering of the Iraqi army in the Eastern neighborhoods of Mosul are clearly not encouraging.The transfer of additional forces of the American army near Mosul, says that the Americans realized that to rely on local formation and would have to seriously strain to achieve the desired success, the more that trump has declared that the fight against the Caliphate is a priority at USA, so the Pentagon will increase the burden on operations in Mosul and Northern Syria.

Judging by the interview, the storming of Mosul revealed serious problems in the organization of the Iraqi army and its divisions that in fact were not prepared for the realities of street fighting in a big city. It’s a bit strange, because months-long assault on Ramadi and Fallujah, where the Iraqi army also suffered serious losses, was to contribute to the implementation of the program of training infantry and mechanized units, obtained in the course of fighting experience.

Quite strange to read removed comments Townsend on this account, as if it is not the Americans engaged in training the Iraqi army and they carried out the operational planning associated with the attack on Mosul, the American generals could not know that the Iraqi parts are not sufficiently prepared for a direct confrontation with the Caliphate in terms of urban combat in dense residential building.Here I think Townsend is trying to shift responsibility to the Iraqi generals, because when trump, the command of coalition troops in Iraq may change and he may be among those who can be appointed as responsible for the mediocre results during the autumn-winter campaign of 2016, when Townsend comes a more energetic commander.

Stauffenberg was Right!

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s