Al-Bab and Raqqa | Colonel Cassad

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By 17 December the advance of the Turks at al-Bab is neither good, nor bad. Putting the unit to move the Kurds from the Afrin and Manija, the Turks took al-Bab in the original poluohvate by selling part of the defensive line of the Caliphate to the West of the city. But the city itself is fully controlled by the militants, and continue to conduct an active defense.The command of “black” knowingly saved the troops in the battle for Dzharablus, al Rai and Dabic, preferring to give the main battle around al-Bab, around which was equipped with several lines of defense and where were concentrated the most efficient part of a Caliphate in Northern Syria and established stockpiles of explosives and anti-tank weapons.Turkey, it was clear that the easy walk is not expected here – suicide attacks systematically claim the lives of FSA militants and Turkish soldiers, mobile anti-hunting group in the area al-Bab Turkish armored vehicles, which allows the same mistakes the Iraqis and the Syrians. In General, the strategy of “black” in Northern Syria remains economical and practical – instead of a quick March to al-Bab, the Turks got many months of gruelling war, which for them is complicated by the conflict with the Kurds.The Turks have been slow with the assault on the city may not rely on the infantry and don’t really want to lose their soldiers. Yet the main emphasis is on fire artillery, aircraft and tanks, “black”, today announced that one day the Turks made more than 50 air strikes on al-Bab, also turned the battle for the hospital on the Western outskirts of the city which was taken https://twitter.com/ShahlarKerimov/status/810126704505212928 to 6 PM. Perhaps, amid the suffering of the Iraqi army in Mosul, the Turks will try to implement the scheme with Managem, where the rate was made slow but steady progress in the city center after its environment.

On the other hand, the question of al-Bab still has some political implications. As it is obvious, Turkey is well aware that Assad and his allies will take Aleppo. And Turkey, instead of any kind of help and Aleppo, on the contrary, held that the activity of the insurgents North of Aleppo that they did not create difficulties of the SAA in the North of the city. That is, if we ignore the various statements of Erdogan, which has caused confusion in the Kremlin, in practice, Erdogan his part of the deal to execute.As a reciprocal gesture, Syria, Iran and Russia are not much troubled by Erdogan’s questions about what he is doing in Northern Syria, solving their issues with the Kurds. Putting the block between Rozhava and Afrin, Erdogan had the opportunity to influence the Union of Kurdish areas in Northern Syria. Russian coalition he did not interfere in this, watching how Erdogan was involved in the Syrian war and began to break the plans of the Americans to create Kurdistan. But who in this scheme should go to al-Bab remains unclear.


Hakan Fidan.

Apparently these issues are discussed in private talks. Today was the discussion https://www.gazeta.ru/army/news/9467321.shtml?utm_source=gazeta-top-news&utm_medium=lastnews&utm_campaign=desktop culminating in the battle for Aleppo between the defense Ministers of Russia, Iran and Syria, which was attended by the Turkish head of military intelligence Hakan Fidan, which again indicates that Turkey is acting in Syria in coordination with Russia and Iran. Also, there were consultations https://www.gazeta.ru/army/news/9467057.shtml?utm_source=gazeta-top-news&utm_medium=lastnews&utm_campaign=desktop Lavrov and the foreign Ministers of Iran and Turkey, which was devoted to the situation in Syria after the liberation of Aleppo. Erdogan its obligations in the issue of Aleppo is obviously fulfilled and the Turks are obviously going to want some preferences or bonuses in relations with Russia and Iran.
In General, we can say that the relationship of Turkey with the activities of the Russian military coalition in Syria is quite obvious, and while Erdogan is fulfilling its obligations (that he was not talking in public), he will continue to be our companion in the Syrian war. However, given the changeable nature of Erdogan and the vacillation of traditional Turkish foreign policy, the ear with it should be kept open.

The Kurds apparently have left their ambitions linked to al-Bab and are forced off of the territory West of Raqqa. The offensive from the North to Raqqa has long died down, but the Kurds and helping them Americans found another way to bring the front area of the capital of the Caliphate. The offensive conducted on the Eastern Bank of the Euphrates, where the Caliphate has no special defensive lines, and only the different towns held light infantry. In conditions of shortage of armored vehicles to the Kurds is a “light version”, especially in the combat formations of the Kurdish units acting us special forceshttp://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/12/american-troops-raqqa-offensive-161210073733228.htmlreceiving air support and logistics. To the West of Raqqa have been recognized by various military transport helicopters, convertiplanes “Osprey” https://twitter.com/M3t4_tr0n/status/809066117226516483 (with the field airfield South of Kobane), attack aircraft “A-10”. Overall, this is a fairly economical option of maintaining the activity in Northern Syria and a way to stay in the game, after the Turks prevented implement the strategy with a unified Kurdistan along the Syrian-Turkish border. “Euphrates shield” led to the fact that the Americans decided to deploy their activity closer to raqqa, so the trump, the US was in Northern Syria certain positions for negotiations with Russia.Raqqa, they certainly will not take (even though deployed reinforcements special forces) – it is not enough people and equipment, but to clear the Eastern Bank of the Euphrates, and advance to Tabqa, the US and the Kurds are quite capable. Well, and then rested in the Western defensive perimeter of Raqqa with constant attacks of suicide bombers al-Mosul. But the Americans is in any case satisfied, as it will allow you to show some success. When this appeared in the press leak on the theme that a direct assault on Raqqa postponed for the spring of 2017 when a new administration determines its Syrian policy.

The Kurds just can not throw all the forces to the South, because it is reasonable to fear that Erdogan after the numerous terrorist attacks organized by Kurds in Turkey will want to hold on the territory WHO Rozhava and enter on its territory 2-3 mechanized divisions from the 2nd and 7th armies, with the aim to “deal with terrorists” from the PYD/YPG, which support the Kurdistan workers ‘ Party. The Turks, of course, there more worried about the Kurdish resistance, and about the U.S. position that the Kurds patronize.It is unlikely Erdogan will be solved to clarify the position of the trump on the Kurdish issue and the territorial integrity of Syria, to attack Rojava, although this possibility can not be excluded. Background information for the attack are long overdue and even overripe, but various military and political factors keep the Turkey from such ventures. And Syria and its allies are unlikely to be in awe of the fact that the Northern part of Syria to become a full-fledged platform for the fights of Kurds and Turks. Therefore, it is more likely that external actors will try to keep the Kurdish-Turkish war is within certain limits.

In General, the position of Caliphate is slowly but steadily continues to deteriorate. Tactical successes associated with the destruction of manpower and equipment of the Kurds and the Turks, only prolonging the inevitable. However, there is still a serious affair around the Kurdish-Turkish war, which closely follows the course of the Syrian war. While there are no prerequisites to the fact that this tangle of contradictions will soon be undone.

Al-Bab and


Destroyed a tank of the Caliphate.


Turkish soldiers under al-Bab.


Turkish tankers compleat the movie “Fury”.


Refugees fleeing from al-Baba to Monbijou.


Hit from anti-tank M-60 Sabra.


Getting into the armored car “Cobra”.

Judging by the video, the technique was not destroyed.


Getting into the Turkish tanks near the village of Surzur.


The suicide attack.


The infantry of the Caliphate in al Bāb.


Views of the same quarter from the standpoint of the SSA.


Destruction in al Bab.

Raqqa


strong point of the Kurdish anti-fascists.

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