Briefly about the situation in the area of Palmyra by the morning of 11 December.
1. Last night, after the loss of elevators to the East of the city, the situation in the area of Palmyra continued to worsen. Simultaneously with the advancing infantry “black” from the East, the militants attacked from the North and occupied key hills to the North of the city, which had a view of the city and which gave the possibility of more effective use of mortars and rockets. SAA infantry and militia openly caved in under the pressure of militants and the night they began to seep on the Northern outskirts of the city, which caused a serious panic in social networks, and according to reports, in the city the same.The battles were taking place directly in the city and especially worried citizens along with Western media and “al-Jazeera” has managed to take Palmyra “black”.
2. From about 7-8 PM, despite the bad weather which stood in the day near Palmyra, began intensive strikes on advancing militants from the HQs of the Russian Federation and the Syrian air force. Syrian troops supported up to 20 attack helicopters and 6 planes that deep into the night treated the battle formations of fighters and their communication in the area of the city. Several later strikes were joined by the Tu-22M3. Interfax reports that used cruise missiles “Caliber”.This allowed to restore the situation and the militants during fierce clashes were driven from the city limits and SAA was able to restore the integrity of the front. In the PAL continue to arrive reinforcements from HOMS and filmed from the front around Rustavskogo of the boiler. According to reports, they immediately introduced in the battle for parts of the North-East of TIACA at the junction to the West of Palmyra and al-Amiriyah to the North of the city. In the morning it was reported that the road to Palmyra and opened al-Amir cleared of militants. The fighting is near the elevators and the hills to the North of the city.
UPD: On the morning of 11 December, the Caliphate Savel that the loss of the SAA and the Syrian militia with the start of the offensive “black” Palmyra amounted to 260 killed. About their losses “black” understandably silent, but judging by yesterday’s report about the strikes, they are just as significant.
3. In General, Syrians are very lucky that in the preceding days, they were able to keep track Palmyra-Ties, so no push for her reinforcements to Palmyra, could be that part of the city could be occupied by the insurgents that once would have dramatically complicated the task for Syria and Russia. However, not to mention that fighters last night came close enough to operational success and if not for the high activity of the Russian and Syrian aircraft, the consequences could be much worse. On the Syrian resources in the morning it was possible to observe the transformation of pessimism into optimistic under the slogan “God saved Us and Russian aircraft”.
I must admit that the Syrian infantry at Palmyra is not the best quality and direct confrontation with the infantry “black” often do not stand up.The benefit of the Caliphate dealt a blow to limited forces, which apparently was not enough to consolidate the successes that largely copies the situation with overlapping of the route Khanasser-Aleppo in February 2016, when to take the Syrian position was easier than to keep them.But it certainly does not eliminate the problems with the lack of good infantry – it may make sense to deploy a larger programme of training and education corps, modeled on those programs that the US and NATO are implementing in Iraq to Iraqi army and Peshmerga.Well, corny or deploy near Palmyra force PMCs to protect themselves from possible surprises.
4. Once again we can point to the fact that “black” enough tactically competent commanders who know how to pose serious problems regular units, supported by well-trained shock troops composed of mercenaries and veterans of the war in Syria and Iraq. The presence of such groups allows the Caliphate is still ambitious to conduct offensive operations despite the bleak strategic situation in Syria and Iraq.In the case of Palmyra, the “black” again have proved that they are a much more dangerous opponent than the “green” that should be considered in case of scheduling operations associated with the March to Deir ez-Zor or Raqqa. Beat in the flank of the advancing groups, the militants are able, and if there is enough strength, and surround you try.
5. It is worth noting that the hypothetical loss of Palmyra will not only be a defeat for the Syrians, but also a serious image blow to Russian. At the time, the occupation of Palmyra brought Russia significant political and image acquisition in the Syrian war, and in the case of loss, costs of this for Russia will be comparable acquisitions. Therefore, it is clear the high activity of Russian aircraft in the area. At the moment, the threat to the city remains and marching all night, fighting to the North and East of the city do not cease.