On the situation in the battle for Mosul to 5 December 2016.
On the 47th day of the operation to capture Mosul, it is apparent that she has long been evolving not so planned. Previously it was noted that originally unified on the idea of the operation was split into several separate operations, must ever lead to the capture of the Iraqi capital of the Caliphate.
1. The encirclement serve with the Iraqi army and contingents of the NATO countries to the West of Mosul. Joining forces with the Peshmerga Kurdish forces to the West of tal afar, the coalition has cut the main supply channels of Mosul, although the control of the desert South of tal afar is rather arbitrary and there’s still quite possible to drive over rough terrain. At the same time, stretching from Tiger to tal-Afar “operational guts” has a tendency to spread.On the one hand, there is systematic work to reduce the size of the boiler Mosul West of the city, resulting in the gradual promotion of mechanized units of the Iraqi army with the support of the special forces of NATO countries to the North towards the road Mosul – tal afar. The Caliphate here has quite the stubborn resistance based on a few towns and terrain. In the long term, Americans and Iraqis have to overcome, although judging by the previous rate of advance, it will take a few weeks.To the West stretched to tal-Afar “operational guts”, the Iraqi army is developing to the extent a meaningless offensive in the West beating the Caliphate towns in desert areas. Given the issues at Mosul, this promotion seems like unnecessary dispersion of forces. Looks like the Iraqis and the Americans pursued for multiple purposes at the same time as the main to achieve and could not. Can only once again point out that many of the problems of this operation stem from its planning.
2. South of Mosul, the continuing suffering of the two Iraqi mechanized divisions that are tightly stuck in combat on the banks of the Tigris. Help from NATO airstrikes, French troops and parts of the 101st airborne division of the United States, not much help. The Caliphate here properly thwarted the original plans, resulting in the grouping, which was given a Central role in the storming of Mosul, still did not reach the city.Only in the last 3 days there has been some progress when mechanized units of the Iraqi army with the support of the us army seized the village of Azba and moved in the direction of the southern blocks of Mosul, which remained there for about 1-3 miles. Here by the way, the Iraqis might even get lucky. The Caliphate began burning pits of oil almost from the beginning of the us operation, reasonably believing that the Americans will be able to quickly break through to the southern outskirts of Mosul.But as the upcoming bogged down South of the city, before reaching the defensive positions of the Caliphate on the southern outskirts of the city, in General, a pit of oil burned in vain, although it is unlikely to greatly upset the Caliphate, which apparently did not expect that the Americans will have such problems breaking the defense of “black”.
3. From the North and North-East of Mosul, Peshmerga openly pretends that he is in a hurry. Taking the settlements to the North and North-East of Mosul (mostly various villages and a few small towns, the Kurds openly call on the Iraqi army alone to attack Mosul. In recent weeks, from the Kurds is not accented movement in the direction of the Northern quarters of the city, no attempts to strike in the direction of the road of tal afar-Mosul, although the blow in the direction of Qaryat-al-Ashik may lead to the dismemberment of the Western part of Mosul boiler.In General, the Kurds clearly do not intend to pull the chestnuts out of the fire for the Iraqis, the expansion of the territory of Syrian Kurdistan they are quite happy, plus they constantly act with an eye on the plans of Iran and Turkey. The visits of senior American military in Erbil and the front to the North of Mosul, significant changes in the rate of advancement of the Kurds is not caused.
4. In the Eastern neighborhoods of Mosul continues something unintelligible. The Iraqi army contrary to the original plan associated with the environment of Mosul and simultaneous attacks from different directions, trying stupidly in a forehead to break through the defense of the Caliphate in urban areas. Of the latest progress of the marginalization of “black” from the ruins of the University of Mosul in the North-Eastern part of the city.
Suppose that before the beginning of the offensive, “black” and close couldn’t think that it will provide such a favorable nature of the fighting in which they were able to leverage their limited strength. Saturate the battle formations in the Eastern part of the city’s anti-tank weapons, “black” was imposed on the Iraqis a war of attrition in which the Iraqis have suffered very serious losses in men and materiel, and the nature of urban fighting are largely offset by factors of American aviation and artillery of NATO countries.As a result, on the background of the rapid collapse of the defense of militants in Aleppo, to Mosul, we are seeing exactly what was predicted by the Syrian army before the assault on the Eastern neighborhoods of Aleppo. The Syrians thanks to the help of Russian military advisors have been able to avoid such a development, but the Iraqis were in a situation when large losses are paying “politically motivated” timing of the onset and planning errors. For good, the Iraqis can stabilize the front and wait for the approach of the remaining forces from the South and the West to exert “black” perimeter for the defense of Mosul.But previous statements by us and Iraqi politicians, push them to continue the offensive in the same operational group.
The condition of the bridges over the Tigris by December 2016. Read more here http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/12/03/satellite-photos-show-isis-getting-squeezed-in-mosul.html?source=TDB&via=FB_Page
it Should be understood that in connection with the destruction of the bridges in Mosul, even a full capture of the Eastern part of the city does nothing, as the West still have to move to the South and West.
In the end, the Caliphate, despite territorial losses, was able to break the initial plans for the capture of Mosul, significantly delay resistance and cause the attackers serious losses (daily Caliphate reports about the successful suicide attacks in which dozens of Iraqis soldiers and various equipment). The infantry of the Caliphate as it usually demonstrates high durability in defensive battles and most experienced squads of “veterans of Jihad”, who are fighting with the 2013-2014 year, in no way inferior- to the prepared American troops of the Peshmerga and Iraqi security forces. I think this experience should be studied both Russian and Syrian military, because sooner or later they have operations in the area of Raqqa and Deir-ez-Zor, where it is important to not allow the same mistakes that previously been made in the attack on the Tabqa and the mistakes that the Americans and the Iraqis have made in the development of the offensive on Mosul.
Below, pictures from the front of the Mosul battle.
the Defeat of the anti-tank Humvee in the district of tal afar.
The fighting around tal afar.
The defeat of anti-tank infantry fighting vehicles of the Iraqi army to the South-East of Mosul.
Suicide attacks in tal Salute.
The suicide attack in tal ABT.
Here and below, the bombers, who are no longer alive.
The militants of the Caliphate in captured from the Iraqis tal Salute.
Meat market in Mosul.
Life in Mosul.
The coalition (US, Iraq, Peshmerga, Shiite militia)
the University of Mosul.
Peshmerga at work.
French SAU “Caesar” firing.
The dead Shiite militias.
A resident of Mosul wounded during urban fighting.