The “Training” provocation | Colonel Cassad

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The Kremlin confirmed the intention to shoot down a Ukrainian missile near the Crimea

Passed last week Ukraine note contained a statement that the Russian side will bring down the Ukrainian rocket during the announced by the Ministry of defense of Ukraine firing on 1 and 2 December – in the case that they will present a danger.This was confirmed by “Vedomosti” the press Secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov. The newspaper reminds that on the protest of the Ministry of defence of the Russian Federation against firings that affect the airspace over the Russian territorial waters in the Crimea, the defense Ministry itself reported on November 25. This statement was contained in a military-diplomatic note to the Ukrainian military attache in Moscow, but about the promise to shoot down threatening missiles in the message is not mentioned, the newspaper notes.

 

Meanwhile, on the evening of 30 November on the website “Ukrainska Pravda” was published an official letter to the Ministry of defense of Russia addressed to the Ukrainian defense Department for missile exercises near the Crimea.
“The Ministry of defence of the Russian Federation warns that upon detection of a launched missile in the area they will be destroyed by the air defense forces of the armed forces… if the launched missiles will pose a threat to Russian objects in the area of the territory of the Russian Federation (on land, at sea or in the airspace), will be applied to retaliatory strikes to destroy their means of start”– said in an official document.
The text of the letter addressed to the military attaché at the Embassy of Ukraine in the Russian Federation. An appeal to the Ukrainian side to abandon the missile launches that could threaten civil aircraft, 25 Nov made and Sony. Her spokesman Sergei Izvolsky said that Russia will not ban flights to the Crimea civil aircraft.

http://www.interfax.ru/world/539366 zinc

Tuesday on the Kerch hosting kerch.tv there was a video, which was captured passing through the Kerch convoy of Russian Armed forces from the trailers, which transported various machines of anti-aircraft missile system s-300V, optimized for missile defense.According to a man working on one of the Russian enterprises for the production of air defense, from the statements of Ukrainian officials and borders of Ukraine declared closed zones, it follows that we are talking about tests in the course of firing anti-aircraft missiles 5В55 for anti-aircraft missile system s-300PS reequipped with combat (retention limits his made in USSR combat units has expired), as well as the Ukrainian missile “Wilga” –copies of long-range rockets for multiple launch rocket systems “Smerch”, which was actively used by the Ukrainian army in the Donbass, and also their limits of operation. According to the interlocutor of “Vedomosti”, the interception of anti-aircraft missiles 5В55 the s-300V is theoretically probable when mutual selection of shooting modes of both complexes, which in this case is impossible. To intercept the rocket from “Tornado” is quite real, says retired Colonel Viktor murakhovski.

http://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/articles/2016/12/01/667672-rossiya-sbivat-ukrainskie-raketi – zinc

PS. The wording leaves the possibility to act according to circumstances in different formats provocation. Today and see how much the junta was fucked up in this matter the Russian Federation and how it will react, as under certain scenarios, this story may have practical continue.

Exercises involving missile firing started and is in full swing on the South of Ukraine. On Thursday, 1 December, said the head of the press center of the air command “South” Ukrainian Air force (AF) Vladimir Kryzhanovsky, reports RIA Novosti. Earlier in Kiev declared that in the Crimea will be carried out tests of anti-aircraft medium-range missiles. “Already started, that is, everything goes according to plan, and how it was planned,” Kryzhanovsky said, adding that “everything is going according to the norms of international law”.

https://lenta.ru/news/2016/12/01/rockets/?utm_campaign=breaking-news&utm_medium=browser-notification&utm_source=push-notification – zinc

Waiting.

UPD: Reported that the black sea fleet ships are at sea and take up positions to the West of the Peninsula. Crews are on high alert.

UPD: Ukraine moved the rocket firings.

Ukraine has issued new aviation notification according to which area of the missile firings in the Black sea shifted to neutral waters, the territorial waters of the Russian Federation are not affected, said the representative of Federal air transport Agency.
He explained thatthe Ukrainian side in the night of Thursday has released a new NOTAM (aviation information notice) that shift the coordinates of the danger zones to the West of the territorial waters of the Russian Federation.
“Thus, the new areas are in international waters, the territorial waters of the Russian Federation are not affected. The zone is the zone of responsibility of Russian managers, however, flight safety is not affected,” — said the press service.

https://ria.ru/world/20161201/1482579439.html – zinc

UPD: the text of the letter of the defense Ministry.

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Training provocation. Interim results

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Briefly, on the situation of provocation with missile launches.

1. After Russia threatened to bring down the Ukrainian rocket fly into Russian territory, Ukraine has shifted the area of rocket launches https://ria.ru/world/20161201/1482618997.html, with the result that the shooting took place in international and territorial waters.

Apparently the information about the embattled air defense systems in Crimea, gave the junta the idea that there may be serious consequences, so the provocation yet sent in a purely informational way.

2. In General, the junta decided not to check (at least today) to shoot down Russian Ukrainian rockets in the case, if the provocation went to the military channel. Ukraine was limited to the next “peremozhny statements”, pretending that the shooting went as well as planned, pretending that the boundaries of the area of the shooting has not changed, and the unprecedented firing will increase the power of the Ukrainian air defense.

3. However, in this scenario, some kind of profit from the provocation was – as mentioned before, during firing, on the Black sea spun a NATO spy plane
http://sngnews.net/obshestvo/Samolet_razvedchik_NAtO_sledit_za_strelbami_nad_krymom___SMI_312217_ENto monitor the work of the Russian air defense systems, long-term view, in which case “confirm the guilt of Russia”.

NATO planes AWACS E-3A is formally owned by the Luxembourg civil and bear registration numbers of this country (although it is in fact US planes). The NATO AEW force (formerly air detection NATO forces) was established in 1980, the first aircraft arrived in 1982, OZ Monaco applied to the tail of aircraft of the NATO AEW. The aircraft carry the inscription: ‘NATO + OTAN’.

Tomorrow will be continued.

As reported “Interfax-Ukraine”, according to an alert released by the Mat in the second half of the day November 30, December 1, firing was carried out from 9:30 to 11:30, December 2 – will be available from 8:00 to 12:00. At the same time, according to information on specialized Internet resources, the first Ukrainian messages issued on 24 November, involved the firing from 6:00 to 14:00.

 

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The shooting ended

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Ukraine has completed air defense exercises on the border with Crimea. The rocket never flew on the territory of the Russian Federation.

It is possible to make certain conclusions.

1. Tough position of the Russian Federation with the threat to shoot down incoming missiles in the airspace of the Russian Federation and increased threat, to hit the launcher, took effect, and more large-scale military provocation, the junta did not dare.
2. Shooting were not where we originally planned, although the leadership of the junta was trying to ignore the obvious fact that the change of zone for shooting. This fact is trying to cover up the cries about “improving the defense”.
3. In the end, Ukraine saber at the borders of the Russian Federation old weapons, but has not achieved any hard answer that it would be possible to declare “the Russian aggression”, or the silence of the Russian Federation, to be able to say “Russia caved”.
4. For Russia, even a small profit with this story out of the Ukraine, pushing the zone of Streltsy beyond the Russian borders, de facto recognized the sovereign right of Russia to shoot down a missile there, because it is Russian territory.
5. However, no cost certainly not done – NATO has carried out monitoring of activity of the Russian air defense system in the Crimea that it is possible and was one of the goals of provocation, which are not lying on the surface. Throughout the course of the exercise, the American E3 Sentry taking off from the airbase in Germany, turned over the territory of Romania and kept monitoring the situation in the Western part of the Black sea.

In General, the Russian was able to keep costs to a minimum. The junta hasn’t been able to achieve, although the mechanism of provocations looked quite promising. Maybe for now just testing the waters and next time I will try seriously.

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