By 1 December, the SAA took a bite from the militants in another quarter in Aleppo. This time it was the turn of the quarter Masaraniyah in the North-East of the boiler. In fact, part of the quarter, SAA took another during the offensive in late November, only now trimmed, pushing fighters towards square Jazmati.
“Al-Nusra” is still unwilling to capitulate and intends to continue hopeless resistance. At the same time the events in Aleppo, in Turkey, there were negotiations/consultations between the Turks/controlled by militants and the Russian Federation, without the participation of the United States, Special agreements have not been reached, except that Turkey has once again confirmed that he supports the territorial integrity of Syria and to prevent the creation of a Kurdish state on its borders.Turkish aims are quite clear, she wants to achieve such a format of political settlement to controlled by Turkey, part of the “green” had the opportunity to come to power in post-war Syria and Turkey thus could influence the situation in the neighboring country. Assad understandably looks at any such intentions without much enthusiasm. So for now, everything is on the level of the exchange of opinions.Russia, these negotiations are interesting because a separate agreement with Turkey destroys the United front “green”, which had so long lined the US, so observers note that Russia and Turkey are actually discussing the fate of “green” without the participation of the chief initiator of the Syrian war. Victory Assad near Damascus and in Aleppo, significantly strengthened his negotiating position (especially in comparison with December 2015) and “green” now have to consider the changed situation. Running operations in Aleppo, Hama and Eastern ghouta and Contary, as well in the future swing the balance in favor of Assad, therefore, actualization of the negotiations, which apparently is Turkey is a logical step because in the future, the terms of a potential agreement can be even worse than they may be now.
Regarding the “tyranny of Assad”, the Kremlin said that Erdogan spoke to Putin and told him the meaning of his words. What I mean Erdogan and satisfied in the Kremlin by his explanation, remained unknown. As mentioned earlier, there is the main marker is the military activity in the area of al-Baba.
UPD: As specified, today Erdogan has personally recognized http://kommersant.ru/doc/3157972 that came out wrong. Apparently the conversation with Mosca pointed him in the right path.
The aim of the operation “shield of the Euphrates” in Syria is solely the neutralization of terrorist groups said President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. “The aim of the operation “shield of the Euphrates” is not any country or people it is directed only against terrorist organizations. Let this no doubt and not trying to find a different meaning. Turkey, even left alone, will continue to fight terrorism”,— quotes his words TASS. Mr. Erdogan stated that Turkey was faced with opposition from the West. “The fact that the West is concerned about Turkey’s policy towards Syria and Iraq, does not mean that he cares about the sovereignty of these countries. He doesn’t care about the future of Syria and Iraq. The Western countries because in these countries, oil”,— he said, speaking in Ankara before the representatives of the regional authorities.
As previously mentioned this account – Erdogan went too far with the rhetoric for internal use and is now forced once again to clean up after themselves.
http://www.mediafire.com/convkey/e650/9pd7jej74oqsqltzg.jpg – increase the map
PS. Plus on the subject of the changed situation in Syria, Turkish and French articles on the topic.
First to return to Aleppo, then the whole of Syria. A year ago, when the moderate rebels, Islamists and other opponents of the regime controlled a large area of the country enveloped in civil war, the plan of the ruler Bashar al-Assad seemed to be a reckless fantasy. Now the situation has changed.
Troops of the Syrian regime moving quickly in the process of capturing the Eastern part of Aleppo. Reportedly, Damascus controls about 40% of the entire Eastern part, which four years ago was captured by the rebels. During the fighting in other areas ran approximately 16.000 civilians and Rebels have not given up. “The struggle continues”, quoted by one of their representatives to the German news Agency. Troops engaged in street fighting. The rebels probably weakened from the siege of East Aleppo, which lasted several weeks. products ended two weeks ago, medical care is almost none.So the soldiers of Assad confident of victory. Before the inauguration of Donald trump in mid-January, troops of the regime want to fully capture Aleppo, said the Russian informants.
If all goes according to plan, Assad and his sponsors in Russia and Iran, the new year in Syria will open a new Chapter. First, because so far trump hasn’t talked about an aggressive strategy in Syria. Therefore, the supporters of Assad hope that the U.S. gradually withdraw from the area of the civil war. Individual comments trump also indicate this.Secondly, the regime was able to conquer the territory, thanks to the active support of Moscow and Tehran. If he manages to regain Aleppo, Damascus will control all the major cities in Syria — and can start to move in the near Idlib province, where there are shelters of the rebels. But now it is not easy to understand who are the rebels. The ranks of the moderates in recent years have been joined by Islamist militants, which have nothing to do with the “Islamic state”.
The regime of Bashar al-Assad, apparently, begins to take the upper hand in the battle for Aleppo in connection with geopolitical, an expert on the Middle East Frederic Pichon mentions the danger of the formation of in Syria Interscope “Jihadistan”, where despite the anarchy, all would be run by “Jabhat EN-Nusra”.
Figarovox: Hotbed of the insurgency in Eastern Aleppo is shrinking every day under the blows of the Syrian army, supported by Russian aircraft. The battle for Aleppo is a foregone conclusion?
Frederic Pichon (Pichon, Frédéric): At the moment the government troops were able to split belonging to the rebel area in Aleppo, which was achieved mainly thanks to the elite units of the Syrian army. In symbolic terms, it is very important for Damascus, because it reduces the involvement of foreign allies in the battle for Aleppo, with the exception of Russia, whose aircraft plays a crucial role. A little further South is a vast territory, where there are still thousands of civilians and controlling armed groups. Is it the end? The offensive of government forces was a blow to the morale of the militants. In addition, in connection with the environment remaining pockets and the end of Turkish support arms and fighters, the fate of Aleppo, perhaps, a foregone conclusion, as I said a month ago. The Russian military, in turn, sit in ambush and negotiate a truce with the rebel leaders. Already worked in HOMS scenario, they will probably offer them an honorable retreat to Idlib.
— Many peace residents of the Eastern districts of Aleppo have taken refuge in areas under control of forces of Bashar al-Assad. What can you say about the humanitarian situation in the former economic capital of Syria?
— Although it was noted by the Syrian Observatory of human rights, the Western media neglected to mention that the majority of fleeing civilians (they are clearly more than 50 thousand) went to the government zone of Western Aleppo or the Kurdish quarter of Sheikh Maqsood. For thousands of people who are still stuck in the East of Aleppo, the situation is further deteriorating, so that in the coming days you can expect massive waves. In this perspective the strategy of the insurgents, who did everything to force people to stay in place, was a complete failure. In addition, this is the calculation of the Syrian government: it makes everything so life there became unbearable. A similar scenario probably will happen in Mosul in the coming weeks. Urban war is the worst of all wars, “the latest battlefield”, as stated in a recently published book.
— What would the capture of Aleppo mean to Damascus, Moscow and Tehran in political terms?
— In 2012, Aleppo could become the capital of the Islamist opposition. However, due to urban sociology external attack of the rebels did not fully get it under control. The vast majority of local residents continued to live under the rule of the government. With the capture of Eastern Aleppo, Damascus would demonstrate the ability to hold vital in economic terms, the territory for reaching without tearing the axle from the southern province of es-Suwayda to Aleppo. In this area still live more than 60% of the population. In political terms, Moscow is itself a key player in the Syrian crisis, for whom Damascus is based much more than on Tehran. Now the policy initiatives have to go through Moscow, and everyone was cool with it. Even finding abroad, the Syrian opposition is no longer against Russian participation in the talks on the political future of Syria.
— What is the future of the rebels from Idlib, in the East of Aleppo? Not whether there is a formation of “Jihadistan” under the influence of the former “Dzhabhat EN-Nusra”, that is “al-Qaeda”?
— In Idlib formed a vague situation, because the last time the rebels were at each other’s throats. Without Turkish support Idlib completely unsustainable. When commanders use the latest resources, we will invite anarchy.Most alarming is that this jihadistan is a problem for a number of countries, including and ours. The same applies, for example, and China: after the attack at its Embassy in Bishkek this summer, he began to show more attention to the region where there are almost 2 thousand fighters of the Islamic party of Turkestan and the Uyghurs, who have modern weapons and can strike again in China out of the shelter. Therefore, Beijing could provide the Syrian army military drones, as the Iraqi.It is worth noting that in recent weeks the United States has caused a number of strikes in this province to eliminate the leaders of the “Jabhat Fatah al-sham”, the former “Dzhabhat EN-Nusra”. Of course, with the consent of the Russian side. I think that because of our obsession with the “Islamic state” we lose sight of this source of threats.
— In the North of Syria continues the operation to liberate the city of al-Bab, which is in the hands of is militants. Here the attitude of the Syrian army and the Kurdish forces differ palpable tension. What game is Ankara? Extent to which its room for maneuver relative to Moscow?
— Turkey is a huge responsibility for reigned in the North of Syria chaos. It supported the worst Islamists on its territory only in order to prevent the formation of Kurdish areas on its borders. The goal is to overthrow the “tyrant Assad” appears to be less serious given the executed megalomania of Erdogan’s antics. Ankara now, apparently, received a clear signal from Moscow, and conditions were negotiated with Putin.What are the objectives actually pursued by the Turkey, we do not know. To create a buffer zone to prevent the formation of an independent Autonomous Syrian Kurdistan? Destroy the Islamic state (doubtful)? Recently, Erdogan said that he was going to overthrow Assad. But it’s not serious until there…Russia
— “Islamic state” was forced to go on the defensive in Iraq and Syria. Should I wait for a quick takes its Syrian capital Raqqa?
— For all the reasons mentioned above, to solve the problem of Raqqa is very difficult. Not so much tactical, how much in political terms: it will take another few weeks for the formation of international consensus after the battle for Aleppo, or even Mosul. Then the race starts. Meanwhile all advance their pieces on the Board, French special forces, Turkish army, the Syrian Kurds, who came from the East of the Iraqi troops. With regard to coalition aircraft, they also have to be coordinated with the Russian or the Syrian military. But this is still far away.