After a couple of days we have a clearer picture with the failure of the offensive of the SAA at the airbase Tabqa.
Both Syrian and Caliphate sources confirm that the army was forced to surrender most of the territory occupied in the course of the attack, retaining only an outpost in Ithryia. The successful occupation by the SAA of the key crossroads to Tabqa and Resafa was defeated by the Caliphate. Therefore, from an operational point of view, here we have a complete operational failure, and the Caliphate has achieved significant success, once again proving that it cannot be underestimated. However, the initial reports of large losses of the Syrians are not confirmed, the Caliphate certainly took some trophies and showed the defeat of Assad, but the statements about the losses are surprisingly modest.
For comparison, regarding the battle for Fallujah the Caliphate claims that during the assault died 1840 soldiers of the Iraqi army and Shiite militia and destroyed 239 units.
With regard to the victory at Tabqa, DAESH exibited remarkable modesty, pointing out at the 2 captured tanks, a few cars, captured weapons, as well as demonstrating the broken tanks and trucks, which in total will be typed by photos and text statements somewhere 20-25 pieces. The corpses of dead soldiers of Assad, also all very modest, if there were hundreds of casualties, the resources of DAESH would now be Laden with photos, but apparently the show is nothing special, while in the case of successful attacks, DAESH is usually gleefully dumped in the media space photos and videos from dozens, if not hundreds of dead. So from the point of view of losses, it’s not as bad as it might seem on the reports of the beginning of the retreat. For example, out of Aleppo every day comes a bunch of photos that showcases the dozens of dead from all sides.
For example, in the Caliphate in relation to the battles on the road of Raqqa to Ithryia yesterday had only 2 captured and 1 tank destroyed. It should be understood that often our losses are exchanged for their bombers, which in June were intensified in Syria, almost equaling the frequency of use in Iraq, where they always acted more actively.
In General, even by the statements of the Caliphate in recent days, with barely 100 people killed is typed in, not to mention the fact that photos with as many killed yet and not the fact that will.
Surrounded by the forces of Assad, they do not confirm, basically saying that is lost in June, the settlements and rejected Assad’s troops to the borders of the province despite strong Russian attacks videoconferencing in the area of tabka air base and junction for the Tabqa and Resafa. In General, the Caliphate did not confirm reports of hundreds of dead and tens of prisoners by Assad and the Shiite militias, so an official statement, several dozen killed in recent days by the SAA seem to be more close to the truth.
The reason for the relatively small losses as for the scale of the pullback of under Tabka, is partial loss of control of troops, as in ours, and on the Syrian messages, 2 pieces withdrew from the front and retreated to the rear without the consent of the other, causing the Caliphate rather freely out to the highway that led to a General retreat in the direction Itree, since the Caliphate is simply not enough forces for a full environment and waste was carried out organized. Troops withdrew and occupied a new defensive line.The Caliphate was satisfied thwarted the plan of attack on Raqqa and some trophies in the course of the attack he suffered losses, including from Russian air strikes.
Подбитая БМП Халифата начиненная взрывчаткой.
Смертник, который не доехал.
Fighting at the crossroads of the Itria-raqqa 21.06.2016
Not restrain myself, and I’ll quote my post from June 4.
Of the imminent capture of Raqqa we are still not talking, but the question of who will take the capital of the Caliphate, begins to form some intrigue related to the competition of Russian and American coalition. The prospect of further advancement at the SAA is quite good, considering that considerable forces of the Caliphate involved in other areas and maneuver reserves of “black” becomes more and more difficult + superiority in tanks and aviation the SAA gives a huge tactical advantage.The main problem is the possible impacts of “black” in the flank of the advancing group with the aim to cut the track, which is the supply and force the delay of the forces from striking force to hold the road as well as traditional attacks on the highway Khanasser Aleppo, where the militia holding the key towns and checkpoints now backed by the Iranian military and various volunteer groups on the Iranian line. If the attack is on the communication of the advancing groups will be able to stop without the need for strike forces and aircraft, it is likely in the coming weeks the SAA will be able to significantly closer to the capital of the Caliphate, which at the current stage of the Syrian war is the main objective of the summer campaign of 2016.
It so happened that to stop this problem failed, even though it was obvious even to Amateurs. Why do so – do you think the military will have to figure out for yourself.
As to not hurt our, then for the last days of the Caliphate gave only a request for three dead Russian soldiers and published photos allegedly of the phone, captured on the road to the East of Ithryia have blown up “KAMAZ”.
But photos of the bodies there (although that hurt to shoot them?), so there is probably just propaganda based on the seized phones or documents, the more that our military really was in the combat formations of Assad’s forces advancing on Tabqa. It should also be noted that these images appear in the statements that they allegedly fell into the hands of militants in the Northern province of Hama. So once again I note that this does not exclude the banal propaganda, although to completely eliminate the possibility of losses during the retreat from the intersection at Tabqa, I would not.
UPD: Sapojnikov reportshttp://chervonec-001.livejournal.com/1405502.htmlthat burnt-out KAMAZ he saw before the retreat, so that with high probability it really is fake.
At the moment, the front relatively stabilized, the Russian air force strikes on the troops of the Caliphate (today’s report destroyed carts “black” to the East of Ithryia). This is the question of various delusions about the fact that Russia has abandoned Assad and helping his troops caught in a difficult situation.
Attack helicopters videoconferencing to the East of Palmyra are working on the positions of the Caliphate.
Regarding the hysteria on the subject of defeat. I stick to the line that this war was and will be both victories and military defeats. Such is the nature of war, which rarely consists of some wins, especially when the opponent is skilful and dangerous. Therefore, it is necessary to talk about victories and about defeats. Why not gloss over the defeat? Because in the Internet age, it is simply impossible. If you don’t tell us, tell others, and interpretation.You can certainly pretend that everything is fine and we move through a series of military victories by avoiding failures, but that hardly anyone can be fooled, as the earlier war shows that winning can be alternated with defeats. Of course, you can pretend to be Poroshenko and claim that debaltseve and Ilovaisk is Peremogi, and say the withdrawal from under Tabka, it’s a very clever tactical retreat to lure the Caliphate that everything is as it was intended, but who are we deceiving but ourselves? But objectively speaking of failures, do not succumb to panic and hysteria.Panic and hysteria is not the best advisers.
So, yeah, a serious failure, but they were before the war continued. Will continue it now. I’ll just remind you that for operational crisis Khanasser in February (where losses were comparable to losses during the retreat from Tabka), was a resounding victory at Palmyra and al-Karmanam, and after a disastrous offensive in the North of Hama (where the SAA lost a few dozen tanks and armored fighting vehicles) were in the hardest fighting released Kuveyris and breached the defense of the “green” Salma, not to mention the defeat of the green to the North of Aleppo, the result of which was cut the track a’zaz-Aleppo.So this failure I think Assad will survive, especially so in 5 years the Syrians had used to the fact that the fortune of war to the local war is very changeable. Syrian allies good luck and success in the coming battles, where there will be many more opportunities to get even with “black” for Tabqa.