The events in Syria is gradually coming to its logical end. ISIS condemned and will be destroyed. It remains to understand what happens next: the new war or a bad peace among the winners.
The advance of the Kurds in the North
“Democratic forces of Syria or Pro-American Kurds interspersed with the Syrian “Democrats” Arab “nationality” is offensive. But not in Raqqa.
What happened in the last week of the event all the more convince me that the attack on the capital of ISIS was a distraction. About it talked a lot, cooked, and ended it to no avail and suspiciously quickly. Meanwhile, ISIS pulled to the capital a considerable force, which is so not enough in the area of Manbij, where in the beginning of June and was dealt a major blow (3). The group ISIS in the town was quickly surrounded, which created a real prospect of the cut-off ISIL militants from Turkey.
The command groups of the Caliphate in the region were forced to leave everything to stabilize the situation. Was removed from the front of attacking “the moderate opposition” in the North-West, which allowed to 10 the number of local start-offensives. The front was somewhat stable, but at what cost.
Nearly defeated near the Turkish border, the “moderates” began to counterattack and regained some settlements lost earlier, during the onset of LIH (1). And from the South, government forces struck…
the Offensive in the desert
The first attempt to break through to the airbase Tabka in the spring of this year failed (2). Then the strike force of the Syrian army is tied down in defensive formations of the Caliphate. Attack from the flanks and the enemy reserves forced the army to stop and regroup (and mistakes).
The advance of the Kurds in the North and threatened the capital of the Caliphate allowed the government forces to strike a quick and all-destroying blow. Promotion comes quickly and probably already next week can start fighting for the airbase, capturing and leaning on that, the government army will pose a threat to raqqa from the South and completely cut communication North ISIS to other parts of the Caliphate. If at this point she is cut off from the Turkish border, will very quickly be destroyed that will dramatically change the balance of power in Syria.
Race may be over “trophies” when “allies”, as in 1945, try to quickly release/to occupy as much of the defeated to the West of the Caliphate. A natural boundary is likely to be the Euphrates river, on the right Bank which will settle the government army of Assad, and on the left the Pro-American Kurds.
At the end of the defeat of the Caliphate, the US will get what you wanted: a large free Kurdistan, with which the former country invaders” (Iraq, Syria) and Turkey will have something to do.
Assad will be able to focus on the destruction of the “moderate opposition”, which is still not laid down arms, what is not like Americans…
Probably immediately after that, the allies will cease to be and perhaps the beginning of a new phase of the Syrian tragedy.
Although it is not excluded that the main opponents in the region (US and Russia) agree and the war will be over…
even until the next, which will break out very quickly in view of unresolved contradictions.
But that far is pointless. Any success or defeat at the front can rewrite the post-war device of the region in favor of one or another side.