The reports that Armenia is ready to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh Republic.
1. During the April escalation between Armenia and Azerbaijan, for some people, was the real discovery of the awareness of the fact that Armenia still has not recognized Karabakh. This theme has repeatedly surfaced in discussions on the topic – “Why not help Russia?, because immediately pop up the answer, “And you yourself even Karabakh is not recognized!”. Now the situation may change, as the Armenian Parliament put forward a bill on recognition of NKR and the Armenian government, this bill was supported.Earlier, the Armenian leadership has said that if Azerbaijan continues its aggression against the NKR, official Yerevan recognizes the unrecognized Republic. As sluggish attacks (with occasional losses) continues, the background for such decisions is quite established, which entails a whole bunch of problems, including for Russia.
2. You have to understand that Russia was interested in maintaining the status quo, where it can cooperate with Yerevan and Baku, and periodic escalation, including the recently – quenched including with the active mediation of Moscow, which was the main mediator in this conflict. Particularly relevant was after the beginning of the us-Russian cold war, when in action on the Ukrainian and Syrian theater, Russia is not interested to have his side of conflicts in which it in one form or another may be involved.In the case of Karabakh, Russia in this conflict not interested twice, because the choice in favor of one of the parties, will mean that it will alienate the other, and this in itself will mean the debacle of long-term policy aimed at freezing the Karabakh conflict and cooperation with Armenia and with Azerbaijan. Opponents of course Russia is interested in selling, so in the recent escalation can be traced and foreign influence.So what’s the bottom line, the NKR issue is not a spherical horse in a vacuum – it is part of a broader process of conflict, where the interests of Russia in the Caucasus faced with the interests of its opponents, and the long-standing conflict between Armenians and Azerbaijanis becomes a means.
3. To maintain the status quo, Russia of course responded to the claims of Armenians associated with the supply of arms to Azerbaijan and promised that Yerevan will receive additional weapons. Now are supplies in the framework of the loan worth $ 200 million. You have to understand that Azerbaijan is a rich country and can afford a more expensive supply of arms, which is clearly seen on comparison of military budgets of the parties in previous years. Therefore, to maintain parity, Russia is providing Armenia with loans for rearmament.As the armed forces of the parties are roughly comparable in size, then comes to the fore the training of troops and quality of equipment. Judging by the losses and the nature of the fighting in early April, the problems with training is on both sides, but the technique Azerbaijanis is new and interesting, which caused a wave of discontent in Armenia. Now the issue is trying to close new supplies. Actually before special military prospects of complete victory of one side is not visible, and the levelling off technique, the more they will not.Hand can stretch horn in the Karabakh mountains and fight there for months, if not years. But it is rather a minor problem, which supplements the main – what to do with Karabakh.
4. Stretching for more than 20 years the peace process has not solved this problem and now we can see how both sides are already almost ripe in order to attempt to resolve the problem in one fell swoop to his advantage.
Azerbaijan in early April, rushed to take back their territory, in fairly heavy fighting pressed a few nameless heights, dug in on them and was pleased. There are simple requirements – Karabakh, not to recognize, 5 districts occupied by Armenia to give Azerbaijan. Armenia in the light of the lost heights of course anything now is not going to give (though around the return of these areas there were negotiations and under certain conditions, this problem could be solved), and now completely ready to recognize the NKR.
5. In Moscow on this issue expressed concern that this may lead to a full-fledged war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, as Azerbajan already stated that if NKR is recognized, then the same format of the negotiation process, you can safely put a cross. Well, of course it will be an occasion for the resumption of intense fighting between the armed forces of Armenia and Azerbaijan in the NKR territory, and in some negative scenarios may lead to a full-scale war, which may begin to interfere with third countries, starting with Turkey.Alarmist statements from both sides have been calculated including the fact that Russia is providing its interests in Azerbaijan and Armenia, poulet on opponents and provide a more convenient format of the talks where it will be possible to achieve at least some goals without war. Yerevan was interested in ending the invasion of Azerbaijan the territory of the NKR and return of lost elevation, Azerbaijan wanted to achieve force transmission 5 districts occupied by Armenians.The main problem here is that every year the status quo every year to maintain harder and the two conflicting parties are increasingly burdened by the obligations under the peace process. So on one hand we see the Azerbaijani nationalist propaganda in the spirit of “expel the Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh and “Get to Stepanakert!”, and from the Armenian side even more often we hear about the official recognition of the NKR and Azerbaijani claims it failed in the style of “sheesh, they get rather than areas”.
6. Accordingly, in the short term, Russia will try to further pull apart the two sides are not allowing a full-fledged war between the political, diplomatic and economic means. Opponents of the Russian Federation of course will play on the contradictions between Armenia and Azerbaijan and use the duality of the Russian policy in the region, seeking to cause a full-blown military conflict and to put Russia in front of a losing choice. It should be understood that the recognition of NKR and the transition of the conflict into a new phase among other things is another symptom of the destruction of the old world order where a pile of such frozen conflicts was an integral part of the world around us. But due to the rapidly occurring changes, when there are always new state, maintaining the status quo is becoming increasingly difficult, as can be seen in the middle East conflict, where the factor of the Kurds ‘ struggle for their own state in conflict with the stated principle of territorial integrity. The old international law and long-standing diplomatic agreements harder to relate with the changing world.