When you find yourself listening to the evangelical Republican candidate talking about “rat copulation” on national television, you know that you have already gone down the rabbit hole. Things are only going to get weirder. We are not in Kansas anymore…
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro.”
-Hunter S Thompson
Polls are only reliable when you have a normal candidate in a normal election cycle. This is not a normal election cycle and Trump is a highly abnormal candidate. This doesn’t make the polls completely meaningless, but you would be well advised to take all of them with a grain of salt, especially national polls that have small sample sizes. This effect can go either way, of course.
Presumably the polling models being used are based off of data from the last two presidential elections. During both of those elections the Democrats had a rock star candidate and the Republicans had uncharismatic losers that even they couldn’t stand. A candidate as untalented as Hillary will not get anything like Obama’s turnout (I expect her numbers to look more like Al Gore’s), and Trump should be able to easily beat Romney’s turn out numbers. So again, a grain of salt.
Despite what they say to pollsters, an indeterminate number of Democrats will absolutely refuse to vote for Hillary Clinton. If things go really sour between the Bernie and Hillary it could be as much as a third of the party. If new Bill sex scandals start leaking out, it could be even more, as having an accused rapist in the white house is not so acceptable to the party today. Even moderate Democrats consider Hillary to be a Republican on economics and foreign policy, and she has all the charisma of a dead toad.
Almost half of Americans don’t vote. If Trump can actually mobilize a significant part of them to vote for him, this will completely screw almost all of the normal electoral math. He has already demonstrated the ability to flood the Republican primaries with new voters, so this is a real possibility. It will require a solid ground organization (that as yet does not exist) and it will also require the Republicans to bring in large numbers of people that they have about *zero* experience organizing.
Donald Trump’s worst enemies at this point are himself, and all of his alt right followers who are so absolutely determined to wipe their racist feces all over his campaign. If you want Trump to win, you Shitlords seriously need to STFU. The one clear path to victory for Hillary is to turn the election into a national referendum on racist/rapist alt right trolls.
Instead you trolls need to infiltrate the Democrats and work to make the conflict between Berniecrats and Hillarycrats as poisonous as possible. Call Bill a rapist and Hillary a rape collaborator. Call Bernie a cisgendered white male who doesn’t care about wymon of color bla bla bla. Unleash the Left’s own viscous sectarianism against itself. No one knows how to poison a well or soil a public image like the alt right, so could you please use it on the enemy for once?