The military situation in Syria to the 01/07/2016 | Colonel Cassad

Overview of the military situation in Syria to the January 7, 2016.

Battle for Aleppo

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To the south of Aleppo, after the loss of Al Carasso rebels again stabilized the front, which still runs along the route Damascus-Aleppo. The onset of the Syrian army, which is developed successfully in October some ran out of steam and the troops apparently require rest and regroup, but it is understandable why the Syrian army continues to attack in the former group – for the upcoming negotiations is highly desirable to apply as soon as possible sensory loss rebels and liberate as much as possible territory. Therefore, the attack certainly will continue, especially as Iran continues to support the offensive in this direction its contingent.

To the east of Aleppo Caliphate was finally able to stabilize the front, stopping the advance of the Syrian army in the flank allepskoy groups advancing on Al-Safir, as well as to slow down the offensive dayr hafir along the highway running through Kuveyris Sharqi. To the south and east of the road Dzhabula promotion of the Syrian army as almost stopped. Not the least role in the inhibition of the onset of the Syrian army reserves played redeployed under the Caliphate of Raqqa in late November and early December 2015.

In the Aleppo without significant changes, major events like the previously deployed around the city. In general, in recent weeks the Syrian army advances were modest and noticeable to the naked eye offensive slowdown, coupled with the strengthening of the resistance of the Caliphate and the Syrian rebels. But the overall initiative in the battle for Aleppo still remains with the Syrian army, which as before will try to expand the zone of control around the city and defeat their opponents.

In the area of ​​the Syrian-Turkish border, the situation is stabilized after the December progress. Caliphate and Syrian rebels exchanged blows and the front are rose, largely due to the support of cross-border operations of the Turkish rebels. Odnovrmenno with the continued fighting in Tal Rheine Aiyar, where Kurds are trying to get to the track, on which is the main supply line of rebels from the territory of Turkey. Kurds are quite reasonable attack the track south of Azaz, since the loss of this communication line threatens not only to bring down the front of the rebels to the north of Aleppo, but seriously complicate the general situation of the rebels in Syria. At the Caliphate about similar problems. but to solve them now they are a bit more complicated than the Kurds.

In January, the fighting was going on with varying degrees of success and generally Kurds failed Draw nigh to their goal, so that the rebels they can write yourself into an asset, since the risk of an immediate loss of a key transport artery was partially docked, but there is no doubt that the Kurds with the Caliphate, and Russia could intensify the fighting in this area with a view to the general weakening of the rebels in northern Syria.


In the mountains of Latakia it lasts about the same as before. Unable to take with serious Salma despite efforts undertaken to this, the Syrian army to focus on other areas of striking west of Idlib, Latakia route, along the Turkish border (cutting the supply lines of militants) and to the west of Sirmanii. Here the promotion continues to be extremely slow, especially if we recall here that the fighting are still in mid-October. The main problem associated with overlapping boundaries and access to the central regions of the province of Idlib has not yet been resolved. However, the rebels with great difficulty hold the front, that would have been impossible without the assistance provided to Turkish territory.

The rate of occurrence illustrates this card is celebrating the success of the Syrian army by taking regular license unknown heights in the local mountains. Early success here can hardly be expected, but in principle, and current trends lets you periodically have tactical successes that gradually accumulate, compounding the overall situation of the rebels in the mountains of Latakia.
Celebrating New Year in Latakia.


If in the north of the province of Hama, after intense fighting in October and November the front is stable enough (it is worth noting the activity of the Syrian army to the south-east of Morek – this is the first activity of its kind in this sector after the completion of a successful counter-offensive of the rebels in November 2015), the eastern areas of the province of the Caliphate had a slight advance in the direction of the village Mabudzha in order to enter in this area to the track-Raqqa Homs. During 3 days of activity, several Khilafah progressed, but major success in the future had enough suffering significant losses. In general, the fighting in the province took very very positional.

NB! In the occupied areas of the province of Hama, the Caliphate is evident propaganda among the population of people handing out freshly printed brochures, where signs only true doctrine.
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The first week of January, the bad for the Syrian army at Homs. Concentrated attacks was cut one of the appendices Rastanskogo boiler. Unable autumn of 2015 to cut in half the boiler, the army finally moved to a strategy otgryzaniya loci huge boiler is constantly trying his strength in different parts of feeling weak points in the defense of the rebels. Over the last month is the biggest success at Homs, which in addition to the fact that the enemy throws from Hama, frees up additional forces to put pressure on the northern and eastern walls of the boiler.

Fighting for Taxis and Kantara are underway with varying degrees of success, so that overall there was a tactical success is not leading to a total collapse of the enemy defense.

To the south of Homs continued fierce fighting near Palmyra Mahina and the troops of the Caliphate. The front is a position character and the whole saga Mahina transition from hand to hand in the end of the strategic importance had not spent by the parties in spite of the resources and enough heavy losses in men and materiel.


In the suburbs of Damascus, significant changes are not happening – the pace of the offensive is still measured by the number of occupied buildings, and little progress in Eastern Guta. In Darayya ongoing street battles in the region Duma front stabilized in November. In Dzhobare promotion rates as very low. The reasons are quite clear – a dense residential and industrial buildings + created during the war fortifications (including groundwater) are not promising quick success and even then little progress has to try fairly.


In the first week of 2016 the Syrian army has intensified fighting in Deraa and started operation at full sweep an important traffic junction in Sheikh Miskin by monitoring which can be stretched out to extend the operational Deraa intestine.

At the moment, the army took from 60 to 80% of Sheikh Miskin, but faces some of the same difficulties that the Iraqi army during the assault on Ramadi. Thrust street fighting in urban areas poluzrazrushennoy significantly reduce the rate of onset and the force the army to take the city’s neighborhoods and individual homes to fight, beating off counterattacks. However, the trend here is positive from the Syrian army and the last week of December, Sheikh Miskin was partially released, but the full liberation of the city still have to work hard. What is happening right now in Sheikh Miskin appropriate described as stubborn street fighting. In Deraa unchanged.

Deir ez-Zor

There has long been the front is quite stable, but yesterday, the parties have tried to take advantage of the fog and to improve their positions, but without much success.


The rate of occurrence of the Kurds in recent years significantly decreased, and announced back in the 20th of December attack on an outpost of the Caliphate in Al-Shaddad has yet not started despite the fact that the US continues to provide some support for the Kurds weapons and instructors. As soon as the fighting moved from the desert areas in the more populated areas with a dense network of roads and settlements, the offensive immediately zastoporolis. However, by employing a large part of the province of Hasaka, Kurds actually built a template for creating a full-fledged Kurdish state on the basis of the northern regions of Syria. In the case of the breakdown of negotiations for a peaceful settlement in Syria, it is possible that in 2016 we will see the establishment of an independent Kurdistan, who announced his bid for the southeastern regions of Turkey, where he continued fighting the Turkish army against the Turkish Kurds.

In general, the Kurds are the main beneficiaries coming hostilities, but on the other hand, they are always at risk of getting hit in the back by Erdogan, who certainly will not sit idly by when overtures to the proclamation of Kurdistan and activates the plan with the creation of “security zones” which should cut short threatened by Syrian Kurds and secure position for the pro-Turkish factions of the Syrian opposition, that Erdogan was able to stay in the game, so the Kurds “is not so simple.”

On the territory of the Caliphate

In Raqqa executed journalist covering the life in the territory of the Caliphate.

The capital of the Caliphate


In general, to January 7, 2016 the Syrian army continues to maintain a strategic initiative and is developing an offensive on a number of ways to compensate for the absence of a succession of major operational success of small tactical victories that lead to the liberation of the country and a large of number of small settlements. In the current situation, these actions are in addition to purely military targets, solve the problem of strengthening the general political position before the upcoming Assad in late January direct talks with the Syrian opposition.

In the ranks of the Syrian opposition is continuing confusion and vacillation, as the single point of view on the topic of talks with Assad still no. and the final list of “good” and “bad” terrorists have not yet been formed. In this context, taking advantage of the uncertainty of the Syrian army and videoconferencing Russia continues to strike the pro-Western opposition weakening its position before the forthcoming negotiations. In case of failure, Assad essentially nothing to lose and can continue to stick to the old line.

Caliphate due to complications of the Iraqi Front (ongoing battle in Anbar province and offensive in the Hadit) is now reduced its activity in Syria, going mainly to retain the achieved position. The main success of the Caliphate in the past couple of weeks – a relative stabilization of the front in the area Kuveyrisa and north-east of Al-Safir. In general we can say that the operation of the Syrian army with the support of FSI Russian and Iranian troops were able to solve the important task of stopping the spread of the influence of the caliphate in Syria. For the future of Syria, this will have important consequences. To speak of the defeat of the Caliphate is not necessary, although compared to 2014 and most of 2015 the situation for the caliphate in Syria and Iraq more difficult.

The US continues to develop its strategy for the Kurdish, which was a response to the Russian military intervention. US hands Kurds are in Syria and we are ready to participate in the Syrian section of the pie, if a diplomatic way to resolve the Syrian conflict comes to a standstill. Before an attack on Rakka is still very far away, but a springboard for future operations in the northeast of Syria US currently provided partially docked collapse of September-October 2015, when the previous administration’s policy of the White House in Syria went bankrupt and Washington quickly started to change the strategy of his actions.

Stauffenberg was Right!

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