Regarding the headlines in the media “DAESH captures Afghanistan.” At first the news, and then comment.
Around 1,600 militants sworn to Daesh subjugated much of the four provinces located south of Jalalabad. Reporter The Times notes that in Afghanistan Daishev operates under the same scenario in Iraq and Syria, first imperceptible penetration of militants in the region, and then capture territories.
It is reported that the terrorists operate with extreme cruelty, using torture and executions, and thousands of residents to flee their homes. Attempts to curb militants Afghan army compounded significant loss of life – up to 500 people a month. Promotion groups associated with the split in the radical movement “Taliban” and the withdrawal of Western troops from Afghanistan. It is possible that former Taliban, who joined Daishev responsible for the death of the leader of “Taliban,” Mullah Mansour, writes Daily Mail.
“Joining the Daesh convenient for disgruntled members of the” Taliban “, the Pakistani Taliban, as well as for a number of Chechen and Uzbek militants. Now they are not an international threat in the Middle East, but it may be three to five years “- The Times said a senior diplomat in Kabul.
“For reasons we do not fully understand, here Daesh a lot of money, much more than the” Taliban “, – he added.
The representative of the US Department of Defense announced Times, the Pentagon is aware of the presence of militants in Afghanistan related to Daesh. “We are closely watching the fact whether they will have the appearance of a significant impact on the nature of threats in the region”, – he said at the Pentagon.
Training camp caliphate in Afghanistan.
In fact, the activity of the Caliphate in Afghanistan for a long time as a secret. The Caliphate has intensified in Afghanistan in 2015, crushing itself under the cell of the Taliban, al-Qaida and the Haqqani network.
As in the Sinai, where militants loyal Khalifa announced the creation of the province of the Caliphate – Wilayat Sinai in Afghanistan was proclaimed Vilayat Khorasan includes Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Areas where Afghanistan since the beginning of 2015 recorded increased activity of local cells of the Caliphate.
Training camps of the Caliphate, as well as areas of activity and clashes with the Taliban. March 2015.
Standard handwriting Caliphate – public executions.
In Afghanistan, the emissaries of the Caliphate worked well with semi-decomposed cells of al-Qaeda and Taliban commanders dissatisfied http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2 014/10 / discord_dissolves_pa.php (and where we must not shun physically eliminate those Taliban who I did not want to bow to the Caliph), bringing year to date to the east of Kabul province Narganhar (administrative center – Jalalabad) there was another abscess of the Caliphate, which is the epicenter of the spread of the influence of the Caliphate in Afghanistan. Local units and commanders officially shifted to Raqqa, and in the province have begun to actively deploy new camps for recruitment and training of recruits to the global jihad. The formal Rubicon of this growth is the death of Mullah Omar, which (or on whose behalf a) publicly criticized the Caliph and refused to accept his supremacy. In the summer, it was announced his death, though still not completely clear – he died in the summer of 2015 or earlier, as claimed by Taliban sources. But not so important – after reports of the death of Omar, the Taliban mired in strife and Caliphate launched a massive campaign to entice the Taliban in their ranks.
Ulcer in the area of Jalalabad.
It is not clear what they mean by “four provinces” south of Jalalabad, Pakistan is likely. Of course, under this may be due to the transition to the subordination of the Caliphate Taleban and networks Haqqani in the provinces of Kandahar and Khost, as well as Ghazni and Logar, yet the phrase about the seizure of four provinces looks deliberate exaggeration, especially as the activity of the Caliphate in these provinces noted since the spring of 2015, and the full control of the territory of these provinces with a total displacement of administration and security officials of the puppet government it does not go. Rather, we can talk about changing the balance in the local guerrilla war, where “the palm of leadership” is gradually moving from the Taliban to the Caliphate.
Production of opium poppy in Afghanistan. It is not difficult to see clearly seen anomalous in 2001, when the Taliban was in power in exchange for international recognition of the closed production of drugs, after which followed the US intervention in Afghanistan under the guise of “revenge for September 11”. As you can see, now the drug production hits record that gives one of the real objectives of the US intervention in Afghanistan.
Like all members of the Afghan war, the local cell of the Caliphate live primarily due to the drug trade. On the production of heroin sitting and local puppet government and the Taliban and Al-Qaeda and the Americans – all mantras about the fight against poppy crops so mantras and left, and the surplus from the sale of heroin enable indefinitely to recruit more and more soldiers and buy weapons on the black market, the Taliban is still in the middle of the zero on the US estimates has accumulated much inventories of raw materials for the production of heroin, the US official said that unprofitable is now destroying poppy crops, because the cost of raw materials will go up and the Taliban receive more gesheft modestly nothing about gesheft Karzai government and involved in the business of the US military and private military companies.
The map shows the border regions of Pakistan, where the initial formation of the future foundation of Wilayat Khorasan by disaffected Taliban commanders and local radical Islamist cells.
The situation is dangerous for the Russian Federation? If Caliphate podomnet under her local Islamist groups (primarily the network of Al-Qaeda and the Haqqani), as well as bend the Taliban forcing one to accept the rule of Baghdadi, then the Caliphate in Afghanistan, of course proceed to full construction of Wilayat, which will focus exclusively on war first with the local American puppet regime, and then with neighbors, burning Tajikistan and Pakistan.
In Tajikistan, where Russian troops are already deployed well enough to penetrate the soil unavozhena emissaries Caliphate – about 2 thousand citizens of Tajikistan have already passed Jihad in Syria and Iraq, and some of them have already returned home or to neighboring Afghanistan. Local Service GB already hard at sounding the alarm indicating the increased activity of radical Islamists, who are active propaganda in southern Tajikistan. Unhealed wounds to the end of the civil war in Tajikistan + recent military rebellion http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/237 0876.html associated with moderate Islamists clearly shows how fragile stability in Tajikistan.
For more on this topic here http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/237 3738.html
The Russian military presence in Tajikistan is estimated to Stratfor.
In the event of active operations of the Caliphate at the borders with Tajikistan and in Tajikistan, the Russian Federation will have to use its power resources in order to stop the threat, as the choice is always limited – if the secular regime in Tajikistan piled up, it just turn into a food base for the Caliphate, where it all climb in the neighboring republics of Central Asia and the Russian Federation in addition to the loss of their positions in the country will receive an influx of refugees, an increase in drug trafficking and increased fermentation in the neighboring republics. So in general, the threat is certainly more than serious.
At a time when the balance of the two wars of Russia – Ukraine and Syria, the risks remain on the expansion of the list due to the frozen conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, due to the unstable regime in Tajikistan and by the death of North Kazakhstan Nazarbayev. Given the fact that these threats are quite aware of the Russian Federation is now making every effort to prevent ignite Karabakh and throws additional forcesTajikistan http://politpuzzle.ru/11299-rossijskie-v ertoletchiki-v-tadzhikistane-provodyat-a ntiterroristicheskie-ucheniya / passing maintaining modeRakhmon http://www.easttime.ru/news/tadzhikistan/t adzhikistan-i-rossiya-rasshiryat-ekonomi cheskoe-sotrudnichestvo / 10185, trying to stop the threat at an early stage.
Driving spread the influence of the Caliphate in the province of Nangarhar. It is not difficult to see the spread of the scheme is very similar to what we see in Syria and Iraq.
In general, the Russian threat from the cells of the Caliphate in Afghanistan is until the medium term, but underestimate it can not be, because as the example of Syria and Iraq, these guys manage to design the state of education in a very short period of time, especially if you are sitting on large financial flows, Only if Syria and Iraq, the role played by oil in the Afghan heroin. Regarding whether you want to go into Afghanistan to fight there with the Caliphate, then of course this should not be done. There’s someone at war with the Caliphate. Support needed ethnic groups in northern Afghanistan (if necessary – to supply weapons and the need to strike in the border areas of Afghanistan) and may still initiate consultations with the moderate representatives of the Taliban, as do the Americans for several years negotiating with the Taliban on the theme of postwar Afghanistan.
The current group in northern Afghanistan “Marg” declared war to the Taliban and the Caliphate.
By and large, the Taliban not as a danger to Russia, because this movement is not international and can hardly expect to go beyond Pakistan and Afghanistan (although undermine the situation in Tajikistan is quite capable), but the Caliphate purely International and its ideology has a world- universal character is not constrained by public or ethnic boundaries. The war with the Taliban Caliphate objectively beneficial to Russia and the longer it will last the better, but the victory over the Taliban caliphate would be a very dangerous scenario, so it is possible that in the medium term the Taliban could be useful in terms of deterrence of the Caliphate in Afghanistan.
Regarding the other opponents of the Caliphate, the US could not even Taliban defeat in 14 years of war, and the recent battle for Kunduz, where the puppet army, with the support of Americans barely repulsed the city by the Taliban (which was virtually no heavy equipment) shows once again that count on the Americans will be able to control the situation in the occupied country (even when expanding contingent) is hardly necessary. A contingent will have to expand and it is almost openly say (in addition to increasing the number of employees of PMCs).
Overall, Afghanistan will continue to justify its reputation.
PS. Due to the current topic for those wishing to immerse themselves in the subject I recommend:
1. The origins of the Islamic State inAfghanistan http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2 015/03 / mapping-the-emergence-of-the-isla mic-state-in-afghanistan.php
2. LIH in Afghanistan http://www.afghanwarnews.info/insurgency/i sis.htm
3. US forces and their satellites in Afghanistan on October 1, 2015 http://understandingwar.org/sites/defaul t / files / ORBAT% 20October% 202015.pdf
4. Report on the Study of War in Afghanistan, the actions of the Caliphate to the December 3, 2015 http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/de fault / files / ISIS% 20in% 20Afghanistan_2.pd f
5. The conflict between the Taliban andCaliphate http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3 131,248 / Barbaric-turf-war-escalates-Afgha nistan-ISIS-execute-three-defectors-days-T aliban-warned-terror-group- stay-country.h tml
Plus photos on the theme of “black” in Afghanistan.