The outlines of the American strategy in Syria
1. These proposals are included in the complex of measures aimed at relief of consequences of Russian intervention which redrew the Syrian situation and revealed the inconsistency of current American strategy in the middle East.
The Americans finally came to realize that the old concepts do not work and now have hastily adjusted, choosing from the different options available to them. Hard power scenario with the participation of American forces in the war in Syria. It certainly is in reality not American bombing Assad’s forces, as the deployment of Russian air defense systems (de-facto Russia has deployed over Assad umbrella protecting him from a “no-fly zones”), the option is fraught between armed forces of nuclear States. However, this question goes beyond the scope just conversations. Yesterday the Pentagon chief Carter on the meeting of the Senate Committee presented proposals of the Obama administration for military options in the us strategy in Syria and Iraq.
Ashton Carter. The Minister of defense.
– the point of application of military force – Ramadi in Iraq and raqqa in Syria + the implementation of deep operations by special forces on the territory of the Caliphate.
– the current strategy against the Caliphate named completely ineffective
– the White House is opposed to the idea of a no-fly zone or humanitarian zone in Syria
– it is recommended to strengthen support for the Kurds and “good terrorists” and to increase the aviation group in Iraq and Syria to intensify attacks on the Caliphate, the goal being to take the capital of the Caliphate
– program of assistance to the Syrian rebels, it is recommended to revise and improve, in order to avoid the “unfortunate experience” previous work in this area
– it is recommended to intensify the attacks on the oil production and refining under the control of the Caliphate to undermine its financial capacity (really?)
– to fight in Iraq like before the hands of the Iraqi army, at the same time promised intense air support for the Iraqis finally were able to repel the Caliphate Ramadi.
– it is expected the intensification of work on reinforcement of cooperation between the Iraqi army and U.S. aircraft + attracting additional American groups focusing and adjustment of air strikes
– the Syrian rebels at war with the Caliphate vague promises as General air support, and direct support on the battlefield
– force special forces, which are offered to deploy in Syria and Iraq should complement the approximately 3,500 American contingent now deployed in Iraq. Iraq overall is still for US a higher priority.
At the hearing the Obama administration got from the senators and Carter together with General Danford were forced to make excuses for the failure of the previous strategy.
General Dunford. The Chairman Of The Joint Chiefs Of Staff. Recently noted by the statements that Russia for the USA enemy number one and China number two.
according to Dunford, the General balance of forces in Syria now in favor of Assad.
– military presence of Iran in Syria Dunford estimated at 2000 people and 1000 Iranian military are fighting in Iraq.
– these excuses were attacked by Senator Lindsey Graham, they say all your previous strategy failed, Assad is now more secure than previously, Russia, Iran and Hezbolla fight “for this guy”, and you are not doing anything to bring about a “democratization of Syria.”
John McCain and Lindsey Graham
We should also highlight the attacks McCain and Graham on Dunford and Carter against Russian bombardment in Syria. The key issue is That the Pentagon is going to do to protect the “good terrorists” from the machinations of Putin. Carter long was justified in the spirit, we are taught and weapons, as McCain constantly pointed out that the Pentagon did nothing. Carter continued protection because according to him those groups who trained and armed the U.S. were not bombed HQs of the Russian Federation. McCain insisted that the head of the Pentagon’s lying and actually trained U.S. militants as bomb. But in the end neither Graham nor McCain were unable to obtain from Carter a clear answer, the Pentagon is planning to act against Russian airstrikes.
Obligately fiery speech in address to Pentagon plan for the continuation of the war in Iraq and Syria Graham finished pathetically: “If I were Assad, today is a good day for me, the American government just said, not directly saying that that is not going to struggle to replace me.”
Overall, these hearings demonstrated the significant differences between American military and political establishment about the continued war in the middle East and systemic difficulties with the elaboration of the new strategy. In this respect, it is only possible to indicate that Russian military intervention in Syria seriously confused cards to Americans.
2. From official statements it follows that it is planned to support special forces troops some groups are Pro-Western for the anti-Assad opposition and the Syrian Kurds are at war with the of the of the of the Caliphate. Since the line of contact with the the the the Caliphate takes place mainly in the Northern regions of Syria, razvetvlenii obviously has to happen to Turkey. This project essentially builds on pre-reaching programme of assistance to the rebels for the supply lines of weapons and the deployment of additional aircraft and drones for an attack on Raqqa. But it is clear that the emergence of the Syrian theatre is not just advisers and instructors and regular part of the U.S. army (it is assumed that the forefront of such a presence in Syria can be a “Delta”, which is already operating in Iraq) could seriously change the balance in the ongoing war, as both the districts, which will face the Americans under the rule of Assad is unlikely to be able to return and this is more the path of Syria’s de-facto, where the zone of control provided by the armed forces of foreign States will be actual new (not necessarily legal) borders of Syria or inner borders of the Syrian Federation/Confederation in case of start the negotiation process between several participants of the Syrian war (which is not excluded, especially in light of the recognition by Washington of the fact that the negotiations on Syria without the participation of Iran is meaningless).
3. Deployment operations are expected based on Incerlik base in Turkey and a number of camps for the preparation of the “democratic opposition”, where quite recently a rather cynical laundered a lot of money on “training Syrian rebels”. Over the last week the number was diverted into Injerlik attack aircraft A-10 was increased to 12. But with the base removed F-16s deployed there in August 2015, as “not quite suitable” for the current problems in Northern Syria. It is worth noting that the idea of sending attack aircraft A-10 in Turkey stood the Chiefs of Staff and defence Committee The Senate, where they recently swept a little bit hysterical about the idea to make the A-10 weapons with the U.S. air force as a “slow and outdated”. McCain on this now myrrh-streaming. In addition to Fingerlike in August were deployed more than 300 soldiers are airlifted out of Italy (including the groups of spotters)
Training Iraqi special forces us special.
4. Of course, the US and Russia are not interested in a direct collision between foreign contingently in Syria that can make regional war world. It is therefore unlikely that the American forces will appear in the mountains of Latakia or in residential areas in Aleppo, just like VC Russia unlikely to pull the cat’s tail, striking blows where it will be declared the presence of U.S. special forces, since the events in this case can quickly spiral out of control. In fact fears that such incidents can occur mostly holding back until the current administration such radical steps. This project has strong support in the Pentagon, in the defense Committee of the Senate and in conservative circles of the American establishment, where Obama and his entourage are required to “show the Russians” But Obama is obviously not enthusiastic about such proposals, especially since he just blocked the defense budget, and here it is again offered to interfere directly in the war. He could hardly resist the likelihood of taking on a full-scale war in Ukraine, but was forced to “return” to Afghanistan and Iraq, now it’s required to get involved in Syria. Nobel peace Prize risks to be in a situation whenever the US is at war more than Bush. Therefore, it is highly likely that Obama will either postpone a decision on this matter, or to block it. It is not excluded any half-measures in the spirit “will send the Syrian democratic opposition of our best instructors and some more weapons.”
Master Sergeant David Wheeler.
Killed in battle with the Caliphate in Iraq.
5. While this decision is not accepted and the administration rather oversees the development of the offensive of Assad, simultaneously treating the Syrian Kurds and Iraq. With Iraq until it turns and from there periodically received statements that Iraq has with Russia will not work, though still contrasting statements on the subject that would be nice VKS RF pobombit and in Iraq. Apparently, there’s a dual situation – political dependence on the USA and the dependence of the Iraqi army from American supplies and trainers are forcing the Iraqi government to listen to the “insistent requests” from Washington. With another hand, the difficult situation on the front will require a more extensive air support than its now have USA. Therefore, among the Iraqi military circulates the opinion that Americans are Americans, but from working with Russia should not give up. Therefore, there is a strange situation, when Iraq formally being in the American coalition is flirting with the Russian. Now the Americans hastily cropped such sentiments.
With the Syrian Kurds is somewhat more complicated, because despite all the promises of support, the Syrian Kurds are pretty cool to the idea of direct cooperation with the United States. The idea to merge trained by the Americans troops “Peshmerga” with the Syrian Kurds was met with little enthusiasm. Plus the US has a serious problem with saved, who openly threatens war if North Syria will be established an independent Kurdistan. But the Kurds to be just cannon fodder do not want the expected large number of casualties in the upcoming campaign against the the the Caliphate they want to be assured that blood money they will receive their state or at least autonomy. And not the fact that these guarantees are now the United States can give. In this respect, the emergence of Syrian Kurdistan American troops might motivate the leadership of the Kurds to join the coalition under American security guarantees, to provide Americans in Turkey, which will hardly venture to attack where is the American contingent. Well, the US will be able to return to a shelved script with the creation of Kurdistan by Syria, Iraq and Turkey.
Overall, if this decision is accepted, it would mean that the stakes in the Syrian war increase. In the coming weeks the White House will have to decide which scenario to deploy its strategy in Syria.
PS. Regarding arms supplies, it is worth noting that in addition to the supply of weapons to Syria, the US continues to supply small arms to Ukraine. Openly confirmed the contract with the company Desert Tech on the subject of supplies of specialized sniper rifles in terms of Algardi and SBU. It is worth mentioning that this is not the first such contract, since December 2014 to Ukraine was delivered from the sniper rifles the Barret Firearms company. Formally it is a private contractor and these purchases are not included in the junta promised arms supplies to 300 million dollars that hang in blocked Obama’s defense budget. But it is clear that delivery of lethal weapons by “private channels” are part of the common line on the military-technical support of the armed forces of the Ukrainian junta. And there is no doubt that such supplies, both public and private will continue.